AC Milan vs Spurs – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our Champions League predictions, we look at a depleted Spurs’ visit to the San Siro. With both sides in poor form, can either forge an advantage for the return leg? Read on with our AC Milan vs Spurs prediction.

AC Milan vs Spurs Match Preview

With four points from their first four Champions League fixtures in Group E which featured back-to-back defeats against Chelsea for a 5-0 aggregate score, AC Milan were in danger of failing to qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League. However, consecutive 4-0 victories over Dinamo Zagreb and a crucial group decider against Salzburg ensured that Milan earned the right to face Group D winners Spurs in the last 16.

Despite a hard-fought 1-0 home victory over Torino at the weekend, it’s perhaps fair to say that AC Milan are in the midst of an awful run of domestic form dating back to their Coppa Italia exit at the hands of the same opponents last month. Losing five of their last seven matches in all competitions, struggling to score goals consistently and keeping them out at the other end, Milan will be hoping that a big European night with a bumper crowd will be the panacea to their recent woes.

While Spurs started their Champions League campaign in convincing fashion with a 2-0 home victory over Marseille, a 2-0 away defeat to Sporting followed by a goalless draw in Frankfurt meant there was plenty of work to do for the North London side to reach the CL knockout stage. With Group D wide open until the final game, Spurs earned a dramatic 2-1 stoppage-time victory in Marseille to ensure their passage as group winners.

Domestically, Spurs suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat away to Leicester to dampen any talk of recent improvement. 1-0 victories away to Fulham and at home to Manchester City appeared to suggest that Spurs were starting to display some defensive solidity that has been lacking for them for much of this season, but three first-half goals for Leicester indicate that much still needs to be done. Worse still, Spurs come into this crucial Champions League clash on the back of a midfield injury and suspension crisis.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

AC Milan:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Bennacer, Dest, Florenzi, Ibrahimovic, Maignan, Tomori

Spurs:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Bentancur, Bissouma, Hojbjerg, Lloris, Sessegnon

AC Milan vs Spurs Lineups (Predicted)

AC Milan (3-4-2-1): Tatarusanu; Kalulu, Kjaer, Gabbia; Hernandez, Tonali, Krunic, Saelemaekers; Leao, Diaz; Giroud

Spurs (3-4-3): Forster; Davies, Dier, Romero; Perisic, Skipp, Sarr, Emerson; Son, Kulusevski, Kane

AC Milan vs Spurs Analysis

Milan’s Recent Defensive Issues

Milan suffered three consecutive heavy defeats – 3-0 vs Inter in the Super Cup, 4-0 away to Lazio and a shocking 5-2 home defeat against struggling Sassuolo. An injury to Fikayo Tomori sustained in the Lazio game and their generally porous defensive play has led Stefano Pioli to abandon his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation in favour of formations featuring three central defenders. Though two matches is a small sample size, they conceded one goal against Inter and kept a clean sheet at home to Torino, though they weren’t entirely convincing as a team.

Shipping 30 goals already in 22 matches, the defensive solidity of last season’s Serie A champions is all but gone. A major reason why lies in the departure of Franck Kessie to Barcelona, who formed a formidable midfield double pivot with Sandro Tonali, one of the best young midfield talents in Europe. This season, Milan have struggled for consistency in protecting their back line, which has prompted a formation change.

Although Spurs are also coming into this fixture on the back of inconsistent and, at times, poor team performances, it’s perhaps obvious to point out that their attacking front three of Kane, Son and Kulusevski present a clear threat to a side struggling for defensive consistency. With Richarlison now returned from injury and also pushing for a start in light of a poor Spurs performance against Leicester, Spurs possess a number of attacking threats.

Spurs’ Midfield Injury Crisis

While we acknowledge that football is a squad game, and outgoing players aren’t replaced by training cones but by other high-level professional players, it should be acknowledged that Bentancur, Hojbjerg and Bissouma are all unavailable for selection. Bentancur and Hojbjerg have been two of Spurs’ better performers this season, with the midfield pair consistently providing a reliable double-pivot ahead of Spurs’ often shaky back three. Although Bissouma has struggled for form this season that’s mostly a function of sparse playing time – his qualities at Brighton were evident for all to see.

Therefore, while we mean no disrespect to the likes of Skipp and Sarr, Milan will most likely have an easier time of things in the middle of the park. Neither player has played much Premier League football this season, with Sarr managing 135 minutes and Skipp 199. We can also assume that this translates into a lack of playing time as a midfield pairing, and when we consider that Sarr is 20 years old and Skipp is 22, this could prove to be problematic.

Perhaps Spurs can attempt to solve this midfield conundrum by playing either Kulusevski or Perisic in a central role, though neither have featured there this season. The real problem for Spurs here is whoever lines up in central midfield is required to protect a rather shaky defensive three who have been leaking goals this season. Spurs have the sixth-worst defensive record in the Premier League despite the impressive performances of Hojbjerg and Bentancur during this campaign.

Our Prediction

We believe that Spurs’ midfield woes combined with their general inconsistency will come to haunt them here. Milan are by no means in brilliant form themselves, but they appear to have at least managed to have some degree of success in ‘shutting the back door’ over the last two games. There’s the potential in this match for the Spurs defence to become more exposed than they already have this season, owing to a lack of quality protection in front.

Normally, we’d expect Milan’s recent poor form to be more of a factor here, but with Spurs conceding four goals away to Leicester at the weekend, their midfield absences and the chance for Milan to put their domestic woes behind them on the big stage following back-to-back 4-0 victories to get them to this point, we’re of the opinion that Milan can earn a first leg lead.

AC Milan 2-1 Spurs

AC Milan vs Spurs Betting Tip – AC Milan Odds: