Beat the Bookmaker – Premier League Predictions

Sunday 28th May 2023

About Our Premier League Predictions

The majority of football fans understand that it’s impossible to get everything right. If it was, you wouldn’t be able to make money betting on football matches – the odds would be prohibitively small if matches were a certainty. The unpredictable nature of football is a big part of what makes the game worth watching – if every match was a foregone conclusion, would you bother to turn up to the stadium or tune in? Despite the disparity in playing resources between, say, Nottingham Forest and Manchester City in the Premier League, a win is not guaranteed. Football is a game of few clear chances compared to other sports owing to packed defences, and the presence of a goalkeeper makes chance conversion even less likely. You’ll all be familiar with the kind of scenario in which a lesser team is outplayed by a superior team racking up an impressive xG stat… as they squander all their chances and fall to a narrow defeat against the run of play.

So… with that in mind, why trust Beat the Bookmaker for Premier League predictions? We don’t claim to be able to predict the future, but our analysts are well-versed in predicting the likely flow of the game and analysing teams’ respective strengths and weaknesses – which is all anybody can do. Correctly predicting a victory for team B when their xG stat is 0.23 compared with team A’s 2.56 xG will yield a profit for that game, and probably at impressive odds, but in the long run, betting on such an outcome against the run of play isn’t a good idea – 9 times out of 10, you lose your money.

xG, or expected goals, is a useful statistic if interpreted correctly. What this metric measures is the average expected conversion rate of a particular chance. It’s a misconception that a lower xG is ALWAYS a sign of a team being outplayed by another, because better players and particularly those with greater technical ability are more likely to take on difficult chances. Most of the spectacular strikes in the history of the game, such as Marco van Basten’s sublime volley against the USSR in the 1988 European Championship final or Gheorge Hagi’s stupendous 1994 World Cup goal against Colombia don’t show up strongly on the xG stats. It’s important to know the difference – so while we do use xG stats sometimes in our Premier League predictions, be aware that the best players tend to outperform their individual xG stats.

Though like other football fans our analysts do have their favourite Premier League teams and others they have a soft spot for, we do our utmost to remain objective and impartial. While we see it as both proper and accurate to praise and criticise certain elements, whether they be tactical or individual, we endeavour to avoid stereotypes and dogma as well as getting carried away with good and bad runs of form. Things can change quickly in football – we’ve all heard of the inevitable ‘reaction’ from a side coming in off a bad defeat and taking it out on their next opponent to record an impressive victory, so we try to avoid jumping on bandwagons because very often, they don’t go anywhere.

Finally, as football tends to throw up surprises from time to time, we only try to post betting tips which have odds of 1 / 2 (1.5) or greater in order to maximise your winnings and cover losses from those matches that don’t go according to plan. Additionally, we certainly don’t recommend betting on every match, as we allude to here on our football betting tips page.