Spurs vs Brentford – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Saturday 20th May 2023
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Brentford’s trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. No Champions League football next season, but can Spurs wrangle a Europa League spot? Free betting tips and more with our Spurs vs Brentford prediction.
Spurs vs Brentford Preview
Spurs come into this penultimate game of the season in stuttering form. Indeed, in what has been a difficult season, Spurs are limping towards its conclusion, with only one win in their previous six games and conceding a massive 17 goals. This run puts them in relegation form across this period (18th). Losses to Bournemouth, Newcastle, Liverpool and Aston Villa have been damaging. Indeed, Villa had the game wrapped up last weekend before the consolation of a Kane penalty in the last minute.
Spurs have won 12 of 18 games at home this season and have 17 more points there than away. They’ve also won six of their previous eight home games. Therefore, interim coach Ryan Mason can seek solace in that their home form is better than their away coming into the game. They’ve also won their last three home games with Brentford in all competitions, keeping a clean sheet each time. Furthermore, their matches have also been relatively high-scoring recently. They still have a chance of qualifying for either the Europa League or Conference League, with Leeds away to finish.
Brentford make the short trip across London in decent form. After a lull that likely cost them European football, the Bees have taken 10 of the previous 15 points, with a 1-0 loss at Anfield and 1-1 draw at home to Aston Villa the only blemishes. Their games have been quite low-scoring, with only ten goals registered across these five matches. Their 2-0 win at home to West Ham last week was an excellent London derby win, courtesy of goals by Wissa and Mbeumo.
Of course, the big news from the Brentford camp this week is that star player Ivan Toney has been suspended until January because of betting misdemeanours. Hence, his loss (he has scored 20 league goals this season) really weakens Thomas Frank’s side for the season’s final two games and into the first half of next season too. However, Wissa and Schade are good deputies. There is further bad news, though – with only four wins and 19 points on their travels this season, Brentford are much better at the Gtech (and sign off there in the final game against Man City).
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play: Dier, Tanganga
Will Not Play: Lloris, Bentancur, Sessegnon
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Strakosha, Jansson, Lewis-Potter, Norgaard, Toney
Spurs vs Brentford Lineups (Predicted)
Spurs (3-4-3 / 3-4-2-1): Forster; Lenglet, Romero, Emerson Royal; Perisic, Skipp, Hojbjerg, Porro; Son, Kane, Richarlison
Brentford (3-5-2): Raya; Mee, Pinnock, Ajer; Henry, Jensen, Onyeka, Janelt, Hickey; Wissa, Mbeumo
Spurs vs Brentford Analysis
Spurs Must Take The Game To Brentford, Despite Being Better When Conceding Possession
Spurs tend to be at their best in transition, when they can sit back, allow the opposition to come onto them, and then break directly and quickly with their wing-backs pace and trickery of Son, Kulusevski, Richarlison and Danjuma. However, with this being the penultimate game of the season and final home game, Spurs must sign off well – mainly because they still have a chance of qualifying for the Europa League. Hence, we expect them to come out and try to attack Brentford.
Spurs must try to take care of the ball in midfield, and Hojbjerg and Skipp (or Bissouma) must get through much work both in passing the ball around Brentford and pressing the Bees when they have the ball. Defensively, the three centre-backs will likely have to defend against Brentford in transitions and must be brave and try to get tackles and blocks in. Generally, Spurs must play a patient game.
In attacking areas, Spurs have the pace and dribbling ability of the wingers already mentioned and the wing-backs (Perisic or Davies and Porro). This width is vital to getting down the sides, especially as Brentford will likely play a back three. Hence, Spurs’ ability to overload on the flanks will be crucial as the wider Brentford defenders will be defending in the channels. As ever, Kane’s passing and ability to drop deep can release the wingers, and he can finish himself when he gets in the box, as he has had one of his best-ever seasons (27 league goals).
Brentford Will Be Physical, Trying To Bully Spurs and Exploiting Set Pieces
People know how Brentford play by now – they’re a physically powerful side that bully their opposition and use a few direct passes, crosses, aerial balls, and set pieces to impose themselves. Spurs have been particularly vulnerable to this style of play this season and have generally not seemed ‘up for the fight’, so to speak. Therefore, we envisage Brentford being their usual dynamic and robust selves and pressing Spurs in midfield and high areas.
The Brentford defence will likely have to be resolute, tracking runners and getting in blocks, interceptions and tackles to stop Spurs from finding joy in the Brentford defensive third. Raya is an excellent shot-stopper, and his kicking out from the back will be vital in finding Brentford players in midfield and attack. Norgaard is still out, so we think Onyeka, Janelt and Jensen will play in midfield – all three are aggressive defensively. Janelt and Jensen are also good at joining the attack. The forward-running of wing-backs Henry and Hickey will allow them to supplement the attack further.
With Toney’s suspension, Brentford’s attack is immediately blunted. How they remedy this next season remains to be seen (they will likely buy another striker). However, for the season’s final two games, we see them playing either the tricky, pacey Schade or Wissa alongside Mbeumo up front. The two forwards must run Spurs ragged, being physical and giving the Spurs defenders and goalkeeper no time on the ball whatsoever. If they can do this, they can create chances and score goals, particularly with the likes of Jensen, Janelt, Dasilva and the elusive Damsgaard breaking from midfield.
With Spurs still having a chance of qualifying for the Europa League (and Brentford still having a very slim chance of Europe, too), this promises to be a feisty London derby. Spurs are playing their final home game and will want to sign off with a good performance and result for their fans after a tumultuous and arduous season. They’ll likely use a mixture of possession and transitional play to try to break Brentford down.
Brentford will be physical and direct – using pace, strength, aerial balls and set-piece deliveries to get the ball into the box quickly and without fuss. We think they can give Spurs a good game here and that any of the three outcomes are possible. However, with Spurs needing the points more, being at home, and with the crucial absence of Toney for Brentford, we will give Spurs the benefit of the doubt.
Spurs 2-1 Brentford
Spurs vs Brentford Betting Tip – Spurs Odds:
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