Leeds vs Brentford Prediction

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we took a look at Brentford’s visit to Elland Road. Will Brentford continue their impressive run of form? Or will Leeds spoil the party? Find out with our Leeds vs Brentford prediction.

Leeds vs Brentford Prediction Match Overview

Leeds United come into this match on the back of three draws and three defeats after failing to build upon back-to-back victories against Liverpool and Bournemouth before the World Cup break. Despite this bleak outlook, Leeds’ performances have been steadily improving – they managed to earn a point at high-flying Newcastle, were the dominant team in a 2-2 draw at home to West Ham and were slightly unlucky in losing 2-1 away at Aston Villa last time out. A 5-2 FA Cup replay victory over Cardiff serves to reinforce this perception, and perhaps Leeds can finally turn the corner here. However, in order to do so, they must beat a Brentford side in red-hot form. It must be noted that Leeds have a very poor home defensive record of late, conceding 12 times in five matches including five in two games against relegation-threatened Bournemouth and West Ham.

As we’ve just mentioned, Brentford are indeed in red-hot form. The Londoners have won four of their last five Premier League matches and now sit in 9th position. This run of form includes 7 points from 9 over their last three games, including a superb and deserved 2-1 victory at Man City. The last time these two sides met, Brentford handed out a 5-2 beating, and though Leeds have home advantage this time around, the Bees will surely be full of confidence. Brentford have been defensively porous away from home though, conceding two goals per game on average, though they have rectified this issue somewhat over the course of the last three games in which they’ve conceded just once per game. A win for Brentford will take them above Liverpool, and, depending upon results elsewhere, Brighton and Fulham. A win for Leeds will possibly see them put a little distance between themselves and their fellow relegation strugglers, again depending on results elsewhere.

Leeds vs Brentford Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Leeds:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Dallas, Forshaw, Gray, Summerville

Brentford:

Might Not Play: Baptiste, Hickey

Will Not Play: Jansson, Onyeka

Leeds vs Brentford Predicted Lineups

Leeds: Meslier; Struijk, Koch, Cooper, Ayling; Adams, Koca; Gnonto, Aaronson, Harrison; Rodrigo

Brentford: Raya; Mee, Pinnock, Zanka; Henry, Jensen, Norgaard, Janelt, Roerslev; Mbeumo, Toney

Leeds vs Brentford Prediction Analysis

Brentford’s Press vs a Shaky Leeds Defence

It’s a cliche at this point, but Brentford press high up the pitch from the first minute of every match. It’s not an uncoordinated effort either – they prepare well and know which of their opponents to target when in possession. Most of the time this season, this approach has yielded positive results as it makes it incredibly difficult for their opponents to play out from the back and to have any kind of rhythm to their play. To compound this, Brentford are also adept at swift counter-attacks, which increases the chances of mistakes from Leeds’ defenders and central midfielders being duly punished. Leeds would be better served to adopt a more direct approach which is somewhat contrary to Marsch’s preferred tactic of possession-based, counter-pressing football with a relatively high defensive line. We feel that if Leeds play as they normally would against a team of Brentford’s stature in a Premier League home match then they may very well come undone.

Leeds’ Ability to Counter-Press

Of all the teams in the Premier League, it may surprise you to know that Brentford have had the least touches of the ball. They’ve also played the fewest passes, but despite this, they rank seventh in through balls. Additionally, only Nottingham Forest have played fewer backward passes. So how can this be an advantage for Leeds? Simply because Brentford’s approach to transition and creating chances relies on high-risk play and they don’t prioritise taking care of the ball – they obviously feel this is the most likely avenue for them to hurt the opposition rather than employing a more passive approach which would require players who are better at retaining possession. Leeds under Marsch and predecessor Bielsa are highly-adept counter-pressers – they look to win the ball back quickly after they lose it, and they’re normally excellent at blocking off passing lanes in midfield. Many Leeds games are end-to-end affairs and Brentford must be careful not to give the ball away quite as often as they do when playing their direct game as Leeds thrive on opportunities to transition rapidly in attack.

Beat the Bookmaker Leeds vs Brentford Prediction

We expect a scrappy affair at times, with both teams pressing, counter-pressing and looking to attack more directly – particularly Brentford who rarely deviate from this approach. Although confidence is often a nebulous concept, Brentford have looked assured in their approach of late and have executed well for the most part since the World Cup break. Leeds have been playing better football without perhaps having the results to show for it, and part of that is they are still vulnerable to the high press of the opposition and often find themselves running towards their own goal out of possession. Brentford can impose themselves and exploit this weakness, but Leeds will have their moments too as Brentford are likely to concede possession due to their high-risk brand of football.

Leeds 1-2 Brentford

Beat the Bookmaker Leeds vs Brentford Prediction – Brentford Odds: