Southampton vs Leicester – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we examine Leicester’s visit to Southampton. Southampton have the worst home record in the PL and have lost their last 5. Number 6? Read on with our Southampton vs Leicester prediction.

Southampton vs Leicester Match Preview

Southampton’s status as a Premier League club is in dire trouble. The Saints have lost ten of their last twelve league matches and are rooted to the bottom of the table with only 18 points from 24 games. They also fell to Grimsby in the FA Cup midweek, though they might be relieved about this as they can now concentrate on their bid for survival. They’ve lost more games in the league than any other side this season (16). Their home record is also appalling, winning once in 11 games and picking up a measly six points.

Ruben Selles won his first game as caretaker after Nathan Jones’s sacking – a shock 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge (or maybe not, given Chelsea’s form). His first match as permanent manager was last week against Leeds, a six-pointer they had to win to give themselves any slim chance of staying up. However, a later Junior Firpo goal after a poor quality game where both teams struggled consigned the South Coast team to defeat. Can anything change Southampton’s fortunes around? It is improbable, as they likely need to pick up about 20 more points to avoid relegation. All they can do is keep fighting and hoping.

Leicester travel south having lost their previous two games – 3-0 away at Old Trafford and 1-0 at home to Arsenal. The latter was a drab affair, but they were relatively unlucky in the former as they created chances against Man Utd before Rashford scored against the run of play. The hosts then took control. Leicester are a strange team, as they can be fantastic or terrible from game to game or even within games. Truthfully, they have been unlucky at times and haven’t obtained the points their performances merited. However, such is the nature of league football.

Away from home, Leicester have done quite well recently: they have won four of their last seven games on the road. However, three of those came at the start of the run, and they have lost three of the previous four away. As stated, Southampton have been dreadful at home, whereas Leicester have won a third of their away games – indeed, the Foxes have as many points away as they do at the King Power. Sitting in 14th with 24 points from 24 games (averaging one point per game), Leicester will likely be safe because there are several worse sides in the division. However, this season has been very disappointing for coach Brendan Rodgers.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Southampton:

Might Not Play: Adams, Salisu

Will Not Play: Larios, Livramento

Leicester:

Might Not Play: Maddison

Will Not Play: Justin, Bertrand, Evans, Tielemans

Southampton vs Leicester Lineups (Predicted)

Southampton (4-4-2): Bazunu; Perraud, Bednarek, Bella-Kotchap, Maitland-Niles; Elyounoussi, Lavia, Ward-Prowse S Armstrong; Sulemana, Onuachu

Leicester (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): Ward; Kristiansen, Faes, Souttar, Castagne; Dewsbury-Hall, Mendy; Barnes, Maddison, Tete; Iheanacho

Southampton vs Leicester Analysis

Southampton Are In Serious Danger

Any club that has accrued a desperate six points after playing more than half of their home games is a prime candidate for relegation. This is where Southampton find themselves. Can Selles change what had become stale under Jones? The jury is out. A big part of Southampton’s problem is that they need to create more chances. If they were vastly underperforming their xG, there would be some hope, but their xG is 22, and they have scored 19. Not a significant disparity, and even if they had registered a few more, the likelihood these would have translated into points, given their defensive woes, is low.

So how can Southampton survive this season? Truthfully, they look doomed. One thing they can do is continue to fight and hope that Ward-Prowse’s wand of a right foot can create chances and goals for them from his brilliant corners and trademark free-kick shots. Sulemana and Onuachu have given them more impetus up front. However, they are up against teams with better players and coaches most weeks, which has taken its toll. Southampton have been in the Premier League since 12-13. They have had a great run, but it increasingly looks like their time in the division is ending.

Leicester Are Inconsistent And Unpredictable

As we insinuated earlier, Leicester are an erratic team. This phenomenon was apparent at Old Trafford. They were by far the better team in the first half but came out in the second like a different team and were dominated. Rodgers must try to do better with the players at his disposal, as they have some talent. The loss at home to Championship club Blackburn in midweek is a prime example of how you never know what you will get from them. Yes, Leicester played a weakened team; but there was still enough quality in the side to win, yet they couldn’t do the job.

Leicester’s unpredictable nature is why we find them a difficult club to predict from one game to the next. Having won only seven of their 24 games this season, you would think it’s relatively easy to go against them. However, there have been several games where they could have attained more in this run. They tend to play attractive football but lose. Maddison’s injury problems have also hurt them, as he’s their best and most creative player. Will they fall to another disappointing result at St Mary’s?

What Might The Pattern Of This Game Be? How Can Each Team Score?

The pattern of the game is likely simple – Leicester have completed over 2,000 passes more than Southampton in an equal number of games, so they will probably turn up at St Mary’s and look to take the game to their hosts while the home team sit deeper and look for countering opportunities. Of course, there might be spells in the game where Southampton are on top, and Tielemans being out for six weeks complicates matters as so much of Leicester’s play goes through him. However, the general pattern will likely be Leicester probing and the Saints soaking up pressure in a low block.

As stated, Southampton have a genuine advantage with Ward-Prowse’s free kicks. They seem like penalties to him; he excels at them. Leicester must beware of giving away any within 25 yards of goal. Southampton have switched from three to four at the back recently, which sometimes allows them to be more adventurous. Sulemana and Onuachu are a menace up front and will likely be supplemented by the full-backs and wingers. Southampton must take any chances they can create on the break when Leicester lose the ball, as opportunities will probably be at a premium. Stats show the Saints are also much better in aerial duels than Leicester, so long or high balls are an option.

Leicester will try to play their usual passing game, though, as stated, it is more difficult without Tielemans. Still, Dewsbury-Hall is a suitable ball carrier and creative presence in midfield. Rodgers has said that Maddison will likely be fit. Maddison’s playing does change Leicester’s prospects; despite missing much of the season with injuries, he is one of the most creative players in the division with nine goals and five assists. He can open up a defensive Southampton in open play, and his set pieces can take advantage of Southampton’s well-known frailty from dead balls.

Our Prediction

Truthfully, who knows with this game? Southampton have been horrendous at home all season, and Leicester have been better away than at the King Power. The possible reason is that they feel liberated from the pressure of the home crowd. However, Leicester are unpredictable – in some games, you think they’ll lose, yet they win easily (for example, Spurs), and in others – like Blackburn in midweek or away at Forest and Bournemouth – they are defeated when you expect more from them.

Therefore, any of the three results are possible (Southampton won the reverse fixture), and much will depend on two factors – how much effort Southampton put into the game and if Leicester’s Jekyll side shows up rather than their Hyde side. Southampton are bad at home, losing seven of eleven games this season. We fancy Leicester to do quite well in this game. We think they can win relatively comfortably with a combination of possession and transitional play. However, this match is a potential banana skin to call.

Southampton 1-3 Leicester

Southampton vs Leicester Betting Tip – Leicester Odds: