Newcastle vs Arsenal – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Sunday 7th May 2023
St James’ Park
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we examine Arsenal’s trip to Newcastle. Arsenal’s away form has slipped – can they stay in touch with City regardless? Free betting tips and more with our Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction.
Newcastle vs Arsenal Preview
Newcastle come into this game in fantastic form. Indeed, Eddie Howe’s men side are undefeated in 25 of their last 28 league games and – while people have been surprised they have accumulated many points this season – have some outstanding players at their disposal. Newcastle have won eight of their previous nine games, with the only blip being that hammering away at Aston Villa, which was obviously just a bad day at the office. They have scored 26 goals across these nine games – only Man City have scored more with 27. Wilson, in particular, has been amongst the goals, with five in his last three games.
After going behind, Newcastle dispatched Southampton at the weekend with three second-half goals. Newcastle have won 10 home league games this season, including the last four. They currently sit in third place in the Premier League – two points above Man United and six above Liverpool (with a game in hand over the Scousers). Given their form and momentum, Newcastle will feel confident about finishing the season in style and making the Champions League for the first time since 2003. With Leeds, Brighton, Leicester and Chelsea to come, they have a tricky but manageable run-in.
Arsenal make the trip north with regrets. They know that the run of form they had in April – where they dropped nine points in four games – has likely put paid to their title aspirations. After leading in the table for so long, they now sit one point behind Man City, with the Manchester club having a game in hand. Mikel Arteta will be frustrated that they have thrown away their buffer. The consecutive capitulations away at Liverpool and West Ham and the poor draw at home to Southampton set the tone before the loss away at Man City.
Arsenal did get back on track with a commanding victory over Chelsea midweek. However, Chelsea are bereft of confidence at the moment. The Gunners are top of the away table, though, with 36 points from 17 games, and can take heart from that in travelling to Newcastle. Arsenal must try to win these last four games and see what happens – it is not inconceivable that City will drop points, as they have two imminent gruelling Champions League games against Real Madrid. Brighton, Nottingham Forest and Wolves are the sides Arsenal round out the season against.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play: S Longstaff, Saint-Maximin
Will Not Play: Krafth, Lascelles, M Longstaff, Fraser
Might Not Play: Gabriel
Will Not Play: Saliba, Tomiyasu, Elneny
Newcastle vs Arsenal Lineups (Predicted)
Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Burn, Botman, Schar, Trippier; Guimaraes, Willock, Joelinton; Isak, Wilson, Almiron
Arsenal (4-3-3): Ramsdale; Zinchenko, Kiwior, Holding, White; Partey, Xhaka, Odegaard; Trossard, Jesus, Saka
Newcastle vs Arsenal Analysis
Newcastle Are Playing Brilliantly And Will Take The Game To Arsenal
Newcastle have been superb recently, and they will look to take the game to Arsenal. The Gunners average more ball possession than Newcastle and have more completed passes this season. However, with this game being on home ground for the Magpies, we expect them to come out of the blocks and attack Arsenal relentlessly from the start. They are full of confidence and will feel they can beat Arsenal here and will be pushing from the get-go.
With Sean Longstaff possibly still injured, Guimaraes will play at the base of midfield, with Joelinton and Willock alongside him. The three Newcastle midfielders must try to get on the ball and control the game – Guimaraes is a very technically gifted player with great industry, passing and pressing ability. He and the others will pressure Arsenal’s midfielders at every opportunity. They will look to feed the ball into their forwards. The midfielders are a match for Arsenal, and we anticipate a fascinating battle for control in the centre of the park.
Newcastle will play with a mix of build-up play and transitions on counter-attacks, depending on different spells of the game. Trippier will supplement the attack from right-back, and his link-up and crossing will be crucial on the right flank. Wilson, Isak and Almiron will likely be the forwards – Howe doesn’t tend to play both Wilson and Isak, but given injuries, we think he might do in this game. Isak and Almiron will start wide, and their dribbling and passing ability in travelling into the box will be crucial. Wilson has been in fine goalscoring form – his ability to make runs in the box and find space to get shots or headers on goal will be vital as he will always make himself available. Willock will join the attack, and the dangerous Gordon is an option, too.
Newcastle must be careful not to overexpose themselves, as Botman and Schar might be left with too much to do on Arsenal transitions. The two centre-backs might have to defend one-on-one at times and must also head out Arsenal crosses and get blocks in. Pope’s shot-saving ability and distribution will also be vital.
Arsenal Must Repel The Newcastle Attack And Try To Get Some Control Of The Game Themselves
Like Newcastle, Arsenal will line up in a 4-3-3 system. The midfield battle should be interesting, as stated, with both sides matching each other. Partey is an athletic and powerful player at the base of the Arsenal midfield. He will need all his composure, experience and strength to prevent Newcastle’s midfielders and attackers from swarming and overwhelming him. Xhaka will also work hard in the left channel, and his ability to fill in when Zinchenko comes into midfield or goes forward will give Arsenal extra insurance. This interchange of positions could confuse Newcastle, though Howe will have done his homework.
Odegaard’s ability to control the game and find space between the lines will be crucial. He can turn in dangerous areas and set the tempo for the game, and if Arsenal are to gain a semblance of control, he will be at the heart of it. His battle with Guimaraes should be interesting as both players are approaching their prime. They would arguably make it into the midfield of a Premier League XI, so whichever plays better could be the key to this game.
As with Newcastle, Arsenal’s centre-backs must be wary of the threat on the break and cannot allow the Toon players to run at them in dangerous positions when Arsenal have overcommitted. White will likely play conservatively and tuck in at right back to offer Arsenal more balance (as Burn will for Newcastle at left-back). If Wilson, Isak and Almiron get running in central or wide areas, then Arsenal might have a problem.
In attacking positions, Arsenal will look to the trickery and close control of Saka, Trossard, Martinelli and Jesus. These players are all technically gifted and can come inside to shoot or go on the outside to cross. We believe Jesus will be important as his movement can drag Schar and Botman out of position to create space for others. Saka’s left foot is also a weapon; we expect him to give Burn a challenging game.
Newcastle have been excellent recently, whereas Arsenal have gone off the boil. The Gunners beat Chelsea in midweek, but most teams are defeating Chelsea right now. Therefore, this will likely be a big test for Arsenal. It’s a long trip north, but both sides have had decent rest, so we should see two relatively fresh sides competing well in an end-to-end game. Both sides will have their spells in the ascendancy, and it could come down to whoever makes their moments of dominance count.
Arsenal will likely have a little more of the ball, though Newcastle will take the game to them as they are at home. Backed by a vociferous crowd, we can see Newcastle overwhelming Arsenal and the pressure getting to the London side. Arsenal have not been convincing recently – Newcastle are strong at St. James’ Park and have put some decent sides to the sword there. We feel that with Isak and Wilson’s form, the Arsenal defence might struggle to cope. A draw is certainly possible, but we believe Newcastle can win this game. There have been more than two goals scored in Arsenal’s last ten league games, and we see that pattern continuing.
Newcastle 2-1 Arsenal
Newcastle vs Arsenal Betting Tip – Newcastle Odds:
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