Fulham vs Nottingham Forest – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we preview Fulham vs Nottingham Forest. With Forest in good form and Fulham suffering a blip, will this be a close encounter? Read on with our Fulham vs Nottingham Forest prediction.

Fulham vs Nottingham Forest Match Preview

Fulham come into this game on a scoreless run of three games, which we successfully predicted. Despite this, Fulham remain in eighth place in the Premier League, although they find themselves just two points ahead of Chelsea who have a game in hand, and three points ahead of Liverpool who have two games in hand. If Fulham are to maintain an outside challenge for a European spot, home victories against bottom-half teams are surely imperative. Fulham have remained defensively solid despite their travails in front of goal, and they have netted a combined six times in three cup matches recently, albeit against Championship opposition.

Perhaps a minor concern for Fulham is the goalscoring form of talismanic striker Aleksandar Mitrovic, who has failed to score in his last five appearances for Fulham. Although it is arguably too soon to talk of a slump – after all, Fulham did emerge from a point against Chelsea last time around, they will be anxious to take advantage of this relatively kind fixture before a difficult trip to fellow European hopefuls Brighton who are in excellent form.

Nottingham Forest and manager Steve Cooper have confounded the critics with their recent good run of form, and now occupy 13th position in the table, six points clear of 18th-placed Everton. Forest are presently unbeaten in five Premier League matches, earning 11 points from their last five matches which represents almost half of their season’s total points haul (24).

It’s looking increasingly likely that their large financial outlay this season on incoming players, which was criticised in some corners as a ‘scattergun’ approach, will be vindicated by the prospect of Premier League survival and perhaps a mid-table finish. Until very recently, Forest were suffering from abysmal away form which saw them score once in eight matches and notch just two points. A 1-0 away win against Southampton followed up by a hard-earned point against Bournemouth sees Forest enter this difficult away fixture with a different narrative surrounding the club.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Fulham:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Kebano

Nottingham Forest:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Awoniyi, Biancone, Henderson, Kouyate, Niakhate, Richards, Yates

Fulham vs Nottingham Forest Lineups (Predicted)

Fulham (4-2-3-1): Leno; Robinson, Ream, Diop, Tete; Reed Palhinha; Willian, Pereira, Decordova-Reid; Mitrovic

Nottingham Forest (4-3-1-2): Navas; Lodi, Worrall, McKenna, Aurier; Danilo, Freuler, Mangala; Gibbs-White; Wood, Johnson

Fulham vs Nottingham Forest Analysis

Fulham’s Recent Downturn in Form

As we suggested a few games back, Fulham were converting their on-target chances at a phenomenal rate, which suggested a regression to the mean at some point. While performances haven’t notably suffered, they are scoreless in their last three Premier League games and the goals from Aleksandar Mitrovic in particular have dried up. Perhaps they were somewhat unfortunate not to score at Newcastle following Mitrovic’s freak penalty accident which saw him slip and kick the ball twice which ruled out his successfully converted penalty.

However, that would have represented Fulham’s only shot on target for the entire match, so the point still stands. While they recorded five shots on target last time out against Chelsea which ordinarily would be considered to be a good attacking return, these attempts combined for an xG stat of 0.49, indicating that they were mostly low-quality chances.

While there’s no suggestion that Fulham didn’t deserve to beat Chelsea in the reverse fixture, the fact remains that their xG in that game was only 0.71 despite scoring twice. XG isn’t a perfect metric – it represents the quality of the chance rather than the quality of the player taking on the chance – but it does suggest a pattern which we successfully identified which states that Fulham were overperforming relative to the chances they are creating and that a run of poor form was possible despite their lofty position and excellent season overall.

What Fulham still have going for them is their excellent recent defensive record. Conceding just eight times in their last 10 Premier League games despite a reputation for getting men forward in transition, they will be confident that they can restrict a Forest side that, although much improved from their early season form, have averaged just one goal per game during their last 10 matches and rarely look like scoring twice.

Forest’s Counterattacking Ability

We expect that Fulham will have around 60% of possession in this match, which for Forest is perhaps no bad thing given that Fulham are struggling to convert their chances of late. Though Fulham did earn a point against a Chelsea side that is somewhat in crisis, the fact remains that most of their better chances were outside the area. One of Forest’s primary strengths as a team is remaining compact and organised in the middle of the final third, as Leeds found out to their cost last weekend as they struggled to create clear-cut chances.

Therefore, Forest will likely be reasonably confident that they can limit Fulham’s attack to mostly half-chances while they will be afforded enough room to operate effectively on the counter. Though Fulham have improved markedly in defence over the last 10 matches, Forest’s excellent run of form has been predicated upon winning despite having less possession than their opponents. Against Southampton, their share was 38%. Against Leicester and Leeds, 39% and 30% respectively.

For now, it seems that teams are preoccupied with gaining what they feel will be an easy win against Forest whereas perhaps they should pay them more respect and play with a slightly more cautious outlook. Either way, we don’t expect the dynamic of the game to change here, and we expect that Forest will get their opportunities on the break. While we can’t say that Forest are especially clinical in front of goal – as we alluded to earlier, Forest have averaged precisely one goal per game during this impressive run of form, they could have enough to work with to gain a positive result here.

Our Prediction

Before the World Cup break, we would have predicted a relatively comfortable home win for Fulham, perhaps 2 or even 3-0. Last time out, these sides played out a five-goal thriller. However, both teams have tightened up noticeably in defence since then.

Four of Fulham’s last five Premier League fixtures have ended in under 2.5 goals. All of Nottingham Forest’s last five fixtures have ended in under 2.5 goals. With this in mind, we expect a tight game which will see the sides effectively meet in the middle following Fulham’s recent downturn in attacking output and Nottingham Forest’s improvements across the board.

Fulham 1-1 Nottingham Forest

Fulham vs Nottingham Forest Betting Tip – Under 2.5 Goals Odds: