Spurs vs Bournemouth – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Bournemouth’s visit to North London. Bournemouth are confounding the critics and have won 3 of their last 5 – can they get a result? Read on with our Spurs vs Bournemouth prediction.

Spurs vs Bournemouth Match Preview

Spurs come into this one on the back of four undefeated Premier League matches, including a vital 2-1 home win against Brighton. The result was undoubtedly more impressive than the performance – Mitoma’s opener for Brighton was harshly ruled out by VAR for a handball that wasn’t, and Spurs also had the acrobatics of Lloris and the woodwork to thank. That said, Son’s opener for Spurs was a strike of the highest quality and Harry Kane can certainly be relied upon to take a clear chance when presented with one.

However, at this stage of the season and with intense competition for European places, it’s generally the result that matters and a Spurs side who were reeling from a very public denouncement from their own coach (now former coach) Antonio Conte have eight points from their last 4 matches despite their issues on and off the pitch.

Due to the nature of their run-in, it’s clear that getting the three points will once again be vital for Spurs as they face an intimidating trio of fixtures – back-to-back fixtures with their Champions League qualification rivals Newcastle (away) and Manchester United (home), followed by a trip to Anfield where Liverpool, despite their issues on the pitch this season have maintained their excellent home form.

As stated, the visitors have continued to confound expectations since the World Cup break and have pulled themselves three points clear of the relegation zone with a superb 1-0 victory over Leicester. As poor as Leicester were and have been lately, Bournemouth were excellent throughout and the 1-0 scoreline doesn’t do justice to their performance last weekend. They attacked directly and with purpose in stark contrast to their opponents who looked disjointed in the final third, and despite possession being almost perfectly even between the two sides, there was nothing even about that contest.

Encouragingly for the south coast side, they’ve started to pick up points away from home, whereas most of their relegation rivals have been unable to do so. While Bournemouth have a relatively kind run-in on paper, they face a succession of relegation six-pointers following this match – West Ham at home, Southampton away and Leeds United at home. O’Neil’s men also face Everton on the final day of the season, in a match they hope won’t be vital for their chances of retaining their Premier League status.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Spurs:

Might Not Play: Foden

Will Not Play: Bentancur, Bissouma, Davies, Emerson Royal, Lucas Moura, Sessegnon

Bournemouth:

Might Not Play: Senesi, Traore

Will Not Play: Fredericks, Stanislas

Spurs vs Bournemouth Lineups (Predicted)

Spurs (3-4-3): Lloris; Lenglet, Dier, Romero; Perisic, Skipp, Hojbjerg, Porro; Son, Kane, Kulusevski

Bournemouth (4-2-3-1): Neto; Kelly, Senesi, Stephens, Smith; Lerma, Rothwell; Ouattara, Christie, Billing; Solanke

Spurs vs Bournemouth Analysis

Spurs’ Creative Issues

While we acknowledge that football at the highest level has been undergoing a tactical transformation at the highest level for some time now, with an emphasis upon verticality and goal threat from most of the top teams, Brighton took the game out of Spurs’ hands for much of the match and were extremely unlucky not to emerge with a positive result. The issue for Spurs at the moment is that when they try to exert more control, as in their match against Everton where they had 62% possession, they have to sacrifice goal threat; they only managed two shots on target. This was also the first time since their FA Cup tie against Preston in late January where they had over 60% possession.

For Spurs to play their best football without the presence of primary midfield playmaker Bentancur, they need to strike a balance between preventing the opposition from playing in dangerous areas and ensuring they have enough room to attack in transition. When Harry Kane is forced to drop deep to compensate for Spurs’ creative shortcomings in midfield, their patterns of play have often been too predictable, relying on moments of quality and inspiration rather than providing any consistent threat. This is a personnel issue rather than a tactical flaw as such, and the danger here is that Bournemouth will sit in and break repeatedly to expose a Spurs defence that has been less than stellar for much of the season.

Bournemouth Don’t Need to Change

A fixture like this is easier for Bournemouth to prepare for in comparison to matches against Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Brentford – matches in which neither team is likely to prioritise possession. Spurs are at home and they are generally expected to at least try to dominate proceedings. This will suit Bournemouth in some ways – their plan of attack should be to get the ball forward directly but primarily on the ground with a willing supporting cast at every opportunity. They’ve generally been successful in doing so lately, and Spurs have looked vulnerable at the back.

There is of course, the danger that one of Spurs’ talented forward players can produce a moment of magic early on – a forward line of Harry Kane, Son Heung-min and Kulusevski/Richarlison is as talented as they come. At that point, Bournemouth would have to negotiate a delicate balancing act between getting back into the game and not conceding another goal against a side growing in confidence. Interestingly, while Spurs did manage to win the reverse fixture 3-2 earlier in the season, they found themselves 2-0 down against a Bournemouth side that isn’t as accomplished as the one they face today.

Our Prediction

We smell something of an upset here. Spurs were extremely fortunate against Brighton last time out, and while we don’t believe that Bournemouth have the same quality as Brighton we were impressed by how they controlled the match away to Leicester City. Bournemouth also found themselves two goals to the good away to Arsenal and managed to defeat Wolves 1-0.

Given the nature of Spurs’ recent performances despite the results, and their hugely disappointing Champions League exit to AC Milan which highlighted a chronic lack of creativity in midfield, we feel that Bournemouth can hold their own here. Although we’re wary of coming down too hard on Spurs, VAR decisions and the woodwork won’t be able to secure the points every week. We know that VAR benefits and penalises most sides in equal measure, but they were very fortunate indeed to defeat Brighton last time out and we’re backing Bournemouth to get a point.

Spurs 1-1 Bournemouth

Spurs vs Bournemouth Betting Tip – Draw Odds: