Bournemouth vs Leeds – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Leeds’ visit to Bournemouth. A win here may ensure Bournemouth’s safety, while Leeds have lost 11 from 16 away matches. Home win? Read on with our Bournemouth vs Leeds prediction.

Bournemouth vs Leeds Preview

Bournemouth took a huge step towards their Premier League survival with a 1-0 victory in which they were the better team in the second half. As stated in our preview, Southampton, unfortunately, fell into the trap of playing more expansive football when they perhaps don’t have the quality to do it, and yet again fell to another defeat in which they had more of the ball than their opponents. Bournemouth had the only shot on target in the second half (one to Southampton’s zero, not counting Che Adams’ disallowed goal) and 39% possession.

This approach is suiting Bournemouth well at the moment, yielding three consecutive away victories to bring them to the brink of Premier League safety. As in many other seasons, the 40-point target would likely be more than enough, and O’Neil’s men have 36 points with five matches to play. Following this match, they’re at home against Chelsea, followed by a trip to Crystal Palace, Man Utd at home and Everton away on the final day of the season. On current form, you’d expect Bournemouth to be lining up in the Premier League next season.

Leeds earned a point at home to Leicester in a 1-1 draw in which Leicester were probably the better team. At this stage of the season though, it’s about points on the board and that draw halted a run of three consecutive defeats, two of them veritable beatings at the hands of Crystal Palace and Liverpool. Gracia’s men have been particularly poor away from home this season, and that recent 4-2 away victory at Wolves would seem to be an outlier; not to be repeated.

It would be fair to say that Leeds United face a rather difficult relegation run-in. Away at Manchester City, at home to Newcastle, away at West Ham and at home to Spurs – Leeds will not be favourites in any of those matches on current form. With just one point separating Leeds from 18th-placed Leicester, and two points from Everton in 19th, Leeds’ chances of Premier League survival look grim if not impossible. This is a must-win fixture today, but Bournemouth are in the best form of any bottom-half team over the last 10 games.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Bournemouth:

Might Not Play: Traore

Will Not Play: Fredericks, Stanislas, Tavernier

Leeds:

Might Not Play: Wober

Will Not Play: Adams, Dallas, Sinisterra

Bournemouth vs Leeds Lineups (Predicted)

Bournemouth (3-4-2-1): Raya; Kelly, Mepham, Stephens; Vina, Tavernier, Rothwell, Lerma; Billing, Christie; Solanke

Leeds (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Wober, Koch, Cooper, Kristensen; Roca, McKennie; Harrison, Aaronson, Summerville; Bamford

Bournemouth vs Leeds Analysis

Bournemouth’s Directness Can Cause Leeds Problems

The simple fact of the matter is that Leeds don’t defend well in transition. All of their recent heavy defeats – 4-1 vs Arsenal, 5-1 vs Crystal Palace and 6-1 vs Liverpool, all came from teams who are capable of transitioning quickly and with precision. This is where Bournemouth have started to pose a real challenge for Premier League opposition. Up until the World Cup break, they were mostly unimpressive and had relegation written all over them. Over the past 10 Premier League matches, they’re 9th with 5 wins and 15 points.

The reason for this upturn in fortunes? Bournemouth are able to put together fluid counter-attacking moves as opposed to the more agricultural hit-and-hope football which lesser teams have often been forced to play throughout the game’s history. We’re seeing some invention in the middle of the park, with threaded passes and slick interplay rather than smacking the ball into the channels. Leeds have been overrun in midfield far too easily and far too often this season, and it could well happen again here.

Leeds Can Counter-Press and Cause Problems of Their Own

Where Leeds were showing some improvement was in their ability to win the ball quickly in midfield and distribute to their dangerous wide attackers. Unfortunately, their goalscorer last time out, Sinisterra, has picked up an injury but Leeds have various options in wide positions. Harrison, Summerville and Gnonto are all capable of stretching the play and allowing Leeds to get at the opposition defence. The issue has been a reluctance to do so against superior opposition.

While Bournemouth are in good form, they’re not necessarily superior in terms of individual quality and Leeds can play a little more expansively here. Bournemouth are a capable attacking side in transition, but they do leave gaps defensively and they, along with Leeds, have the worst defensive record in the division. A bone of contention with many Leeds supporters has been the absence of Wilfried Gnonto from the starting XI in recent weeks – this kind of match with the potential to get in behind Bournemouth’s wing-backs would seem perfect for a player with his skill set.

Our Prediction

The reverse fixture between these two sides was 2-2, with Forest rescuing a point at the death. The problem for Forest is that they’re simply not the same team away from home, and Brentford have been much improved over their last couple of performances.

Forest scored a combined 5 goals in their last two matches, but against teams who have been vulnerable to the counter-attack throughout the season. This is a very different kind of match against a team who, until recently at least, don’t concede many at home – they were conceding less than 1 per game, now it’s 17 in 16.

We think Brentford can continue their recent improvement to put Nottingham Forest away (relatively) comfortably.

Bournemouth 2-1 Leeds

Bournemouth vs Leeds Betting Tip – Bournemouth Odds: