West Ham vs Newcastle – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Wednesday 5th April 2023
As part of our midweek Premier League predictions, we take a look at Newcastle’s visit to West Ham. Newcastle have hit form at the right time – can they keep building momentum? Read on with our West Ham vs Newcastle prediction.
West Ham vs Newcastle Match Preview
After three points for each side at the weekend, West Ham now entertain Newcastle at the London Stadium this midweek. The Hammers come into the game in better form than usual this season. Indeed, they have seven points from the last four games, placing them sixth in the form table in this mini-run. These points are invaluable for a team fighting against relegation, and their win at the weekend lifted them out of the drop zone. They had 1.47 to 0.42 xG against Southampton, so they deserved the 1-0 win (which we correctly predicted).
West Ham are twelfth in the home form table this season, so they have been doing respectably for a team battling against demotion. Indeed, they have won six games from 14 and taken 21 points. With only one win away and six points 6 points collected (a joint-league low with Nottingham Forest), the disparity between West Ham’s home and away form is almost as stark as that of Liverpool’s. Thus, coach David Moyes knows the importance of these home games in their battle for survival and hopes to follow up the weekend’s result with a second consecutive victory. With 27 points (averaging one per game), they likely require about ten more points to be safe.
Newcastle make the long journey south in fine form. They have won their previous three games, culminating in a resounding victory over Man Utd at St James’ Park on Sunday. The Toon dominated United for the entire match and were hugely unfortunate not to lead at half-time. However, they rectified matters in the second half – headers from Willock and substitute Wilson gave Newcastle all three points and put them ahead of Man Utd (both have 50 points, but Newcastle have a much superior goal difference). The Manchester club cannot grumble as Newcastle had XG of 3.86 to 0.46 and 22 shots.
Newcastle have been pretty good away from home. Indeed, they are third in the away table, with 21 points and five wins from 13 games. Only the top two (Arsenal and Man City) can better this record. Furthermore, goalkeeper Nick Pope has kept 13 clean sheets in the league this season, so they have generally been watertight at the back, giving them a platform to win games. Newcastle could have already solidified their Champions League place had they turned more of their draws into wins – they’ve been involved in eleven stalemates this season (only Brentford have more with 13) and know they must keep picking up three points rather than one to confirm a top-four finish.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play: Scamacca
Will Not Play:
Might Not Play: Willock
Will Not Play: Krafth, Almiron, Fraser, M Longstaff
West Ham vs Newcastle Lineups (Predicted)
West Ham (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): Fabianski; Emerson, Aguerd, Zouma, Kehrer; Rice, Soucek; Benrahma, Paqueta, Bowen; Ings
Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Burn, Botman, Schar, Trippier; S Longstaff, Willock, Guimaraes; Saint-Maximin, Isak, Murphy
West Ham vs Newcastle Analysis
West Ham Attained A Much-Needed Win And Must Now Kick On
West Ham’s victory against Southampton gave them a much-needed shot in the arm and allowed them to climb five places. Hence, with another home game here, they must continue building their momentum. It will be challenging against a Newcastle side fresh off a comprehensive victory over Man Utd. However, the London club have it in them win this game.
Both teams prefer to play on the counter-attack. However, it is essential that the Hammers can defend compactly and not allow any spaces between the lines where Newcastle’s more inventive players operate. Aguerd and Zouma must defend crosses coming into the box from Tripper – both players are strong, physical, and good in the air. They will play a vital role alongside Fabianski’s claiming the ball from deliveries and set pieces.
West Ham must be diligent in midfield areas. Rice and Soucek must try to get on the ball and progress up the pitch, and when they don’t have it, they are responsible for pressing Newcastle’s midfielders. This encounter will likely be tight, and where neither team monopolises possession, so we envisage quite an end-to-end contest. In that case, West Ham have the attacking players in Bowen, Benrahma, Paqueta, Fornals and Lanzini to cause problems for the Newcastle back four with their pace, dribbling and ball-carrying abilities. If they can get into good positions, they can test Pope with shots or deliver crosses for Ings or Antonio to attack.
Newcastle Were Brilliant Against Man Utd And Must Counter Efficiently Here
After a dominating performance and result against Man Utd, you would imagine that Newcastle will travel to London brimming with confidence. Still, they cannot be complacent and must remain professional, as this is the first of three consecutive away games. Sean Longstaff and Guimaraes will try to control the game in midfield. Both were superb at the weekend and the Brazilian, in particular, displays his class in every game he plays. It is no exaggeration to say that he makes Newcastle tick and could play for any team in the division – his passing, work rate, dribbling and football intellect are all of the highest levels, and he is invaluable to this team.
Therefore, Newcastle will have plenty of the ball in midfield, though, as we said, they likely won’t have an abundance of it. Their midfielders will receive the ball from the defence. Botman and Schar have been excellent this season. With Burn, Trippier and Pope, the two have formed a back five that has conceded the fewest goals in the division at just 19. Newcastle often ask Burn to play a more defensive role, so he will try to contain Bowen on the West Ham right.
Don’t get us wrong; Burn is serviceable in attack but very tall and unorthodox. Newcastle tend to use Trippier as the most advanced full-back, as his ball progression, decision-making, and crossing are all fantastic. He knows precisely when to recycle the ball, when to deliver, and when to feed little balls into the box, so he adds much to this Newcastle side. He will likely link up with Murphy as Almiron is still out – Murphy works hard and is good at dribbling and crossing down the line. On the other side, Saint-Maximin works full-backs very hard, even if his end product often lacks. His dribbling and trickery make him unpredictable and give Newcastle something different. Isak will be his usual lively self in attack.
A word on Willock – he may be injured for this game, but he was brilliant against United and should have scored more goals if not for profligate finishing. If he is fit, his ability to join the attack and make runs into the box from midfield gives this Newcastle side a new dimension. He is a serious threat with his movement, and the West Ham defence must be wary if he starts.
Again, this is a game which is quite challenging to predict. Newcastle will be eager to start the game and build on the momentum three consecutive wins have given them. However, West Ham have shown they can still get results at home even if the football isn’t scintillating. Newcastle certainly have the better players and are in superior form and much higher in the league. Football is a game of high variance, though, and the London club will fancy their chances on home soil. Pressure is on both as they need to keep picking up points.
Set pieces and dead ball situations are a big part of this match, as both sides tend to do well in these situations. The deliveries of Trippier, Bowen and Cresswell are always dangerous – particularly given the height in both sides. Good football will be played by both sometimes. However, we also see some scrappy passages of play where both teams cancel each other out and concede possession back and forth.
Newcastle coach Eddie Howe has been making better decisions recently than Moyes. Hence, we will predict Newcastle to win the game. We don’t think it will be easy, but they may escape the London Stadium with a victory by the odd goal.
West Ham 1-2 Newcastle
West Ham vs Newcastle Betting Tip – Newcastle Odds:
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