Everton vs Newcastle – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

Thursday 27th April 2023
19:45 GMT
Goodison Park

As part of our midweek Premier League predictions, we look at Newcastle United’s trip to Goodison Park. Everton struggle for goals home and away, and Newcastle have the league’s best defensive record. Away win? Read on with our Everton vs Newcastle prediction.


Crystal Palace

0-0 (A)


3-1 (H)

Man Utd

2-0 (A)


1-1 (H)


2-2 (H)



6-1 (H)

Aston Villa

3-0 (A)


2-1 (A)

West Ham

5-1 (A)

Man Utd

2-0 (H)

Everton vs Newcastle Match Preview

Now at the business end of the season, Everton come into this game having experienced another torrid campaign. It really is crunch time for them as they sit in the relegation zone again. However, their recent games have not gone well – they are winless in the previous five games, though they drew three of them. Their match at the weekend ended up a draw away at a Crystal Palace side that had won three in a row since returning coach Roy Hodgson replaced Patrick Vieira. In a drab goalless game, Everton managed to pick up a point.

Everton need more than that, however. They likely must pick up two or three wins between now and the end of the season to give themselves any chance of safety (they’re nineteenth with 28 points). With this game, Brighton, Man City and a six-pointer at Leicester still to come, this is easier said than done. Everton are also poor at home – they’ve won five of 16 games there this season. Only Southampton and Leicester have amassed fewer than Everton’s 18 home points this season – though ten of those have come since Sean Dyche replaced Frank Lampard at the end of January.

Newcastle make the trip to the North-West in excellent form. They’ve won six of their last seven league games, with the only blip being that 3-0 hammering at Aston Villa, where Ollie Watkins tore them apart. Given their performances throughout the rest of this period (and indeed the season as a whole), this match can be considered an off-day. Certainly, they hammered Spurs emphatically 6-1 at St James’ Park at the weekend. Newcastle were 5-0 up after 21 minutes – the second-fastest team to ever reach five goals in the Premier League in a match, after Man City. They ripped Spurs to shreds, and Isak and Murphy were especially impressive.

On their travels, Eddie Howe’s men have been almost as impressive as in Tyneside. They have 27 points on the road, only five fewer than at home. Hence, they are the third-best away side this season and will confidently approach this match. Having scored at least two goals in the six wins referenced above, Newcastle’s supporters will expect them to create chances against a struggling Everton side. Indeed, in third place in the league (59 points from 31 games) and averaging 1.74 goals per game, Newcastle are in a great position to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 2003.

With a demanding home crowd, Everton might be approaching this game with trepidation, particularly as Newcastle defeated them in the reverse fixture.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions


Might Not Play: Coleman, Onana

Will Not Play: Holgate, Townsend, Dele Alli, Vinagre


Might Not Play: Schar

Will Not Play: Krafth, M Longstaff, Saint-Maximin, Fraser

Everton vs Newcastle Lineups (Predicted)

Everton (4-4-2/ 4-2-3-1): Pickford; Mykolenko, Tarkowski, Keane, Patterson; McNeil, Doucoure, Gueye, Iwobi; Gray, Calvert-Lewin

Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Burn, Botman, Lascelles, Trippier; S Longstaff, Willock, Guimaraes; Joelinton, Isak, Murphy

Everton vs Newcastle Lineup
Newcastle vs Everton Lineup

Everton vs Newcastle Analysis

Everton Will Likely Be Physical and Aggressive

Everton don’t tend to control games or play their way through teams with possession and beautiful passing. Up against a strong Newcastle side, they are even less likely to try to play this way. Hence, we anticipate Dyche’s men being physical and intense at home against a superior side. They will try to get in Newcastle’s face, so to speak, to disrupt their rhythm and put them off their game. The defence and midfield will likely be compact – the return of Doucoure from suspension is a big plus as he has bundles of energy and pressing ability and can use his domineering presence to try to upset the Newcastle defenders and midfielders (Onana might be missing, however).

Everton will likely play 4-4-2 or a variation such as 4-2-3-1. Hence, when they win the ball through pressing in midfield or on turnovers, they must get the ball forward as quickly as possible so that Iwobi and McNeil can get up the pitch and deliver crosses. Calvert-Lewin likely being available is a big boost for Everton as he is really the only decent goalscorer in their squad. The Englishman will be a significant target for crosses and balls entering the box.

In terms of other players, Gray is probably Everton’s best wild card. His pace, dribbling and ability to do something different could also create chances, especially if he drifts to the left channel – Trippier’s advances could leave more space in these areas.

In general, Everton must try to play an intense game and prevent Newcastle from settling and developing a pattern where they are controlling the game. Newcastle have the more technically gifted players and are the better footballing side, so Everton will try to make this a battle and use aerial balls, pace, and power to get something. This task will be challenging given the size and physicality in the Newcastle backline (Pope in goal, Burn, Botman, and Lascelles likely coming in for the injured Schar). However, Everton’s best chance is to increase the intensity and play more agriculturally.

Newcastle Must Play Both Possesion and Transitional Football

Newcastle have averaged 51.5 per cent possession this season and are only in the middle of the league for completed passes. These stats hint that, while Newcastle can retain the ball and play a passing, ground game, they are just as comfortable if not more so, playing directly in transitions and getting forward at speed with an economy of passes. We would expect them to play a similar hybrid style in this match – they will likely control the ball for long spells due to Everton being more basic, as stated earlier.

However, there will also be occasions where Everton commit themselves (they need wins), and this would allow Newcastle to hit Everton on the break. An early goal for the Magpies would open this game up. To find this goal and a victory, the Newcastle defence and midfield must be very press-resistant and not allow Everton to win the ball in the middle of the pitch or the Newcastle defensive third. Thankfully for Newcastle, Guimaraes has been fantastic all season – his press resistance, ability to set the tempo and dynamic, incisive passing range is what Newcastle require to prevent Everton from having joy with their intense pressing.

Sean Longstaff will aid Guimaraes in setting the tempo. Between Longstaff, Guimaraes, Joelinton and Willock, Newcastle should be able to weave pretty patterns. When they get the ball into the final third, Isak is superb; with his dribbling, pace, ability to link play, two good feet, threat in the air and calm, composed finishing, Newcastle have found a gem here (and Wilson is a capable understudy). Crosses coming into the box from Trippier and dribbling out wide from Almiron, Willock, and Murphy could be crucial to advancing into the box and linking up with Isak. Newcastle have built a good squad and, with 54 goals this season, are an effective attacking outfit. They will mix possession play and counters.

Our Prediction

This match should be a Newcastle win. The 6-1 rout of Spurs at the weekend showed all the good parts of Newcastle’s game, both offensively and defensively. They should be full of confidence in travelling to Goodison Park, especially as they are well-placed to qualify for the Champions League. Howe’s team are in a good moment and have some tricky, technical, high-quality players. More importantly, the system Howe has implemented is extracting much of their potential.

Everton, alternatively, are in an awful place. They have slightly improved since Dyche replaced Lampard, but more is needed since they have a difficult run-in to end the season. They likely need another seven points minimum, so they’ll come flying out of the traps here; however, Newcastle will probably be too clever, contain Everton for the most part, and be the more significant threat in attacking areas. We don’t overlook the possibility that we could be completely wrong, as Everton have defied the odds before (particularly last season), but the sensible money is on Newcastle.

Everton 0-2 Newcastle

Everton vs Newcastle Betting Tip – Newcastle Odds:


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