Newcastle vs Brighton – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our midweek Premier League predictions, we take a look at Brighton’s visit to Newcastle. Newcastle are dipping at just the wrong time – can Brighton build on their recent form? Free betting tips and more with our Newcastle vs Brighton prediction.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Newcastle:

Might Not Play: Murphy

Will Not Play: Krafth, S Longstaff, M Longstaff, Ritchie

Brighton:

Might Not Play: Enciso, Veltman

Will Not Play: Sanchez, March, Lamptey, Webster, Moder, Sarmiento, Lallana

Newcastle vs Brighton Lineups (Predicted)

Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Burn, Botman, Schar, Trippier; Guimaraes, Jeolinton, Willock; Isak, Wilson, Almiron

Brighton (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): Steele; Estupinan, Colwill, Dunk, Caicedo; Gilmour, Gross; Mitoma, Mac Allister, Enciso; Ferguson

Newcastle vs Brighton Analysis

Brighton Could Have More Spells Of Possession

Brighton have averaged more possession than Newcastle this season, with 60 per cent to 52 per cent. Brighton also had approximately 60 per cent of the ball against Arsenal at the Emirates. Therefore, we expect Brighton to dominate the ball to a decent extent at St James’ Park. They’ll likely show up and try to play their patient, probing game to lure Newcastle onto them so they can exploit the spaces when the Geordies press. Hence, Steele and Dunk are vital in playing out from the back and getting the ball into midfield. Caicedo (if he plays right-back as he is a natural central midfielder) and Estupinan will also be vital in progressing the play.

When Brighton get the ball into attacking areas, Mitoma, Enciso and Buonanotte must be tricky on the flanks and try to take on the Newcastle full-backs. They’re all very technical with excellent close control; they can create opportunities with shots, cutbacks and crosses. Mac Allister, as ever, will link the play in the hole and try to control the game. Estupinan’s raids forward will be vital, too. Ferguson might play in attack after returning from injury; his physical presence, neatness on the ground and finishing ability could help Brighton to score. Welbeck and Undav are further attacking options.

However, Brighton must be defensively careful – they cannot allow Newcastle to exploit them on the counter and get one-on-one with their centre-backs. Brighton will likely take risks in midfield with Gross, Mac Allister and Gilmour trying to evade the press – but Brighton’s game plan is always a brave, high-risk and high-reward strategy.

Despite Being At Home, Newcastle Will Possibly Play More On The Counter

While Newcastle are undoubtedly capable of retaining possession and applying pressure, they’ll often play on the counter-attack more in this game. That is not to say that Newcastle won’t have spells of possession or Brighton won’t be able to exploit attacking transitions – just that the flow of the game will likely be Brighton taking the game to Newcastle more often. These things are sometimes challenging to predict, but we think it should be the way here.

Hence, Newcastle’s defence must concentrate. Botman and Schar will likely have to defend cutbacks and crosses and make blocks and interceptions when Brighton attack the spaces. Newcastle must be compact with their lines and prevent significant gaps from appearing that Mac Allister, Ensico and Mitoma can exploit. Pope might have to make some saves in goal, and his kicking will also be vital in getting Newcastle up the pitch. Guimaraes will set the tone in midfield with his pressing and ability to evade Brighton’s press. If Newcastle are to perform, he, Joelinton and the forward-running Willock must play well.

In attacking areas, Newcastle can be devastating on the counter. Gordon, Saint-Maximin and Isak are all options wide left. Gordon is fast and direct, whereas Saint-Maximin is a great dribbler and box of tricks. Isak will likely get the nod – he’s a natural centre-forward, but he and Wilson have been playing together recently – Isak’s ability to come off the left and dribble, pass and create will be essential. Almiron or Murphy on the right will also be important – they’re good dribblers and very inventive. If Wilson plays in the middle, he could continue his hot streak, as his link-up and finishing have been exemplary. Trippier’s crossing is also crucial from the right.

Our Prediction

This game is tough to predict. Both teams have been brilliant this season, though they have had disappointing results recently (Newcastle against Arsenal and Leeds and Brighton against Everton). We expect Brighton to try to break Newcastle down in this game patiently. However, sometimes the ability to defend in transition can be the Seagulls’ Achilles heel. Alternatively, Brighton are really good at putting together moves and combining beautifully to play pretty football. Newcastle must be switched on defensively at all times.

With the game being in Newcastle, we are tempted to back the home side to win. However, we went for Arsenal at the weekend, and Brighton made a mockery of that. We emphasise that either team could win this match, which makes it such a tricky pick. However, we will split the difference and go for a high-scoring draw – both these teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and we believe that will continue. A draw or 2-1 to either side looks pretty possible.

Newcastle 2-2 Brighton

Newcastle vs Brighton Betting Tip – Draw Odds: