Newcastle vs Brighton – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

Thursday 18th May 2023
19:30 GMT
St James’ Park

As part of our midweek Premier League predictions, we take a look at Brighton’s visit to Newcastle. Newcastle are dipping at just the wrong time – can Brighton build on their recent form? Free betting tips and more with our Newcastle vs Brighton prediction.



2-2 (A)


2-0 (H)


3-1 (H)


4-1 (A)


6-1 (H)



3-0 (A)


5-1 (H)

Man Utd

1-0 (H)


6-0 (H)

Nottingham Forest

3-1 (A)

Newcastle vs Brighton Preview

Newcastle come into this game just having faltered recently and dropped more points. They’re still fourth in the form table over the previous six games, with 10 points. However, defeats to Aston Villa and Arsenal and a draw with Leeds have seen them be reined in, to an extent, by Liverpool. They have also been conceding more goals – previously a rock defensively, they have shipped twelve in the last eight with no clean sheets. Indeed, their game at Leeds at the weekend was disappointing. With the Elland Road side fighting for survival, they managed a draw, with Wilson scoring two for Newcastle.

Therefore, Newcastle still have work to do to make it to the top four and Champions League football for the first time in two decades. They sit third, just one point ahead of Liverpool (with this game in hand over the Merseysiders) and on the same number of points as Man Utd, whose last three games are against sides with nothing to play for. Therefore, Newcastle cannot afford any slips, and they also lack experience of being in this position.

Newcastle’s games have been increasingly high-scoring, and they want to avoid getting into a basketball game with Brighton. However, they have only lost twice at home and only conceded 13 goals there. With Leicester and Chelsea to finish, Newcastle still have a good chance.

Brighton make the long trip north in great spirits, having put the final nail in the coffin of Arsenal’s title charge. They scored three goals without reply at the Emirates – including a beautiful Undav chip and an Estupinan rebound. They were good value for their win, having about 60 per cent possession and outplaying Arsenal for long periods.

This result followed a run where Brighton had lost three of the last seven matches – indeed, they haven’t had a draw in their previous eight. Six of their last seven games have seen at least three goals scored, and they have scored 15 in that spell. Yes, there was the hammering by Everton – but that was a freak result which made no sense based on stats and pattern of play.

Away from home, only three sides (including Newcastle themselves) have accrued more points than Brighton this season, as they have 28 points and a +7 goal difference. With a home double-header against Southampton and Man City to come in gameweek 37 (and Man City could be the champions by then and rest players) and a trip to Villa Park to finish off, Brighton’s dreams of playing Europa League football are alive (though Champions League looks unlikely now) – they’re a point ahead of both Spurs and Villa, with two games in hand.

The reverse fixture ended goalless, so we hope for more entertainment this time.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions


Might Not Play: Murphy

Will Not Play: Krafth, S Longstaff, M Longstaff, Ritchie


Might Not Play: Enciso, Veltman

Will Not Play: Sanchez, March, Lamptey, Webster, Moder, Sarmiento, Lallana

Newcastle vs Brighton Lineups (Predicted)

Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Burn, Botman, Schar, Trippier; Guimaraes, Jeolinton, Willock; Isak, Wilson, Almiron

Brighton (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): Steele; Estupinan, Colwill, Dunk, Caicedo; Gilmour, Gross; Mitoma, Mac Allister, Enciso; Ferguson

Newcastle vs Brighton Lineup
Brighton vs Newcastle Lineup

Newcastle vs Brighton Analysis

Brighton Could Have More Spells Of Possession

Brighton have averaged more possession than Newcastle this season, with 60 per cent to 52 per cent. Brighton also had approximately 60 per cent of the ball against Arsenal at the Emirates. Therefore, we expect Brighton to dominate the ball to a decent extent at St James’ Park. They’ll likely show up and try to play their patient, probing game to lure Newcastle onto them so they can exploit the spaces when the Geordies press. Hence, Steele and Dunk are vital in playing out from the back and getting the ball into midfield. Caicedo (if he plays right-back as he is a natural central midfielder) and Estupinan will also be vital in progressing the play.

When Brighton get the ball into attacking areas, Mitoma, Enciso and Buonanotte must be tricky on the flanks and try to take on the Newcastle full-backs. They’re all very technical with excellent close control; they can create opportunities with shots, cutbacks and crosses. Mac Allister, as ever, will link the play in the hole and try to control the game. Estupinan’s raids forward will be vital, too. Ferguson might play in attack after returning from injury; his physical presence, neatness on the ground and finishing ability could help Brighton to score. Welbeck and Undav are further attacking options.

However, Brighton must be defensively careful – they cannot allow Newcastle to exploit them on the counter and get one-on-one with their centre-backs. Brighton will likely take risks in midfield with Gross, Mac Allister and Gilmour trying to evade the press – but Brighton’s game plan is always a brave, high-risk and high-reward strategy.

Despite Being At Home, Newcastle Will Possibly Play More On The Counter

While Newcastle are undoubtedly capable of retaining possession and applying pressure, they’ll often play on the counter-attack more in this game. That is not to say that Newcastle won’t have spells of possession or Brighton won’t be able to exploit attacking transitions – just that the flow of the game will likely be Brighton taking the game to Newcastle more often. These things are sometimes challenging to predict, but we think it should be the way here.

Hence, Newcastle’s defence must concentrate. Botman and Schar will likely have to defend cutbacks and crosses and make blocks and interceptions when Brighton attack the spaces. Newcastle must be compact with their lines and prevent significant gaps from appearing that Mac Allister, Ensico and Mitoma can exploit. Pope might have to make some saves in goal, and his kicking will also be vital in getting Newcastle up the pitch. Guimaraes will set the tone in midfield with his pressing and ability to evade Brighton’s press. If Newcastle are to perform, he, Joelinton and the forward-running Willock must play well.

In attacking areas, Newcastle can be devastating on the counter. Gordon, Saint-Maximin and Isak are all options wide left. Gordon is fast and direct, whereas Saint-Maximin is a great dribbler and box of tricks. Isak will likely get the nod – he’s a natural centre-forward, but he and Wilson have been playing together recently – Isak’s ability to come off the left and dribble, pass and create will be essential. Almiron or Murphy on the right will also be important – they’re good dribblers and very inventive. If Wilson plays in the middle, he could continue his hot streak, as his link-up and finishing have been exemplary. Trippier’s crossing is also crucial from the right.

Our Prediction

This game is tough to predict. Both teams have been brilliant this season, though they have had disappointing results recently (Newcastle against Arsenal and Leeds and Brighton against Everton). We expect Brighton to try to break Newcastle down in this game patiently. However, sometimes the ability to defend in transition can be the Seagulls’ Achilles heel. Alternatively, Brighton are really good at putting together moves and combining beautifully to play pretty football. Newcastle must be switched on defensively at all times.

With the game being in Newcastle, we are tempted to back the home side to win. However, we went for Arsenal at the weekend, and Brighton made a mockery of that. We emphasise that either team could win this match, which makes it such a tricky pick. However, we will split the difference and go for a high-scoring draw – both these teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and we believe that will continue. A draw or 2-1 to either side looks pretty possible.

Newcastle 2-2 Brighton

Newcastle vs Brighton Betting Tip – Draw Odds:


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