Everton vs Brentford – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we cast an eye over Brentford’s visit to Goodison Park. Everton are sinking fast – can they right the ship against Brentford? Read on with our Everton vs Brentford prediction.

Everton vs Brentford Match Preview

Everton come into this game on the back of some bad form. Indeed, after winning new coach Sean Dyche’s first game against Arsenal, the Toffees have since lost three, drawn one, and won only one of their previous five games. That victory constituted a six-pointer against Leeds, which was good news. However, defeats to Villa, Arsenal (in the second fixture), and city rivals Liverpool were poor results. Everton have only scored four goals in Dyche’s first six games, reinforcing the idea from his Burnley days that he is a defensive manager. However, he is new to the club, and the team lacks talented goalscorers (especially given Calvert-Lewin’s injury problems), so it isn’t all his fault.

Everton have won four and drawn two of their thirteen home games this season. They have six more points at home than away and a significantly better (though still unimpressive) goal difference. Therefore, the Merseysiders will likely be slightly more confident about this match than if they had to travel to London. They also scored two goals and picked up a point away at Forest last weekend, though this was bittersweet having led twice. Sitting in the relegation zone with 22 points and the lowest goals scored in the division with Wolves (19), Everton must improve to escape the drop.

Brentford are on a fantastic run, being undefeated in their previous twelve league matches. Indeed, their last loss came away at Villa in October. This run has put them near the top of the form table across this period. The run includes wins over Man City, West Ham, Liverpool, Bournemouth, Southampton, and on Monday night against Fulham. The London derby was closely contested in the first half, with Solomon cancelling Pinnock’s early opener. However, goals by Toney and Jensen sealed the game in the second half before Vinicius’s stoppage-time consolation.

Away from home, Brentford have fewer than half the points they’ve accumulated at the Community Stadium (12 compared to 26, though they have played two fewer away). Indeed, they have only won twice on their travels all season. They have only lost three times, too – they are draw specialists away from home, reaching a stalemate six times. Therefore, it is clear that their league position is built predominantly on how strong they are in Brentford. This will be good news for Everton as the Toffees will hope that the London club don’t make it three away wins this season.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Everton:

Might Not Play: Mykolenko, Patterson, Garner, Calvert-Lewin

Will Not Play: Townsend

Brentford:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Strakosha

Everton vs Brentford Lineups (Predicted)

Everton (4-5-1 / 4-3-3): Pickford; Godfrey, Tarkowski, Keane, Coleman; McNeil, Onana, Gueye, Doucoure, Iwobi; Gray

Brentford (4-3-3): Raya; Henry, Mee, Pinnock, Hickey; Damsgaard, Norgaard, Jensen; Wissa, Toney, Mbeumo

Everton vs Brentford Analysis

Everton Are In Big Trouble. How Might They Attack?

Everton are clearly at severe risk of relegation. Prime among their issues is their inability to put the ball in the back of the net. We say this every week with Everton. However, they do not have anyone who is a reliable goalscorer, other than possibly Calvert-Lewin (and he has too many injury problems to be relied upon). The Toffees have only kept six clean sheets in their 26 games this season and have conceded 38 goals. Therefore, if a team concedes many goals and doesn’t shut the opposition out, they must score one, two, or three goals a game to obtain a draw or a win.

However, Everton have scored only 19 – half of their goals conceded total. The loss of Gordon to Newcastle didn’t help. Neither does the fact that Dyche seems to insist on playing Iwobi and McNeil as more defensive wingers. People can argue that these two don’t offer enough in attack to allow them to play more advanced and directly. However, Everton are a team that like to play long balls and crosses, so Coleman, Iwobi, and McNeil getting into better positions to deliver the ball is in their best interests.

They have little to aim at without Calvert-Lewin, but we still think they will go long and look for second balls. This tactic is not especially effective against a Brentford side which is high up the table for winning aerial duels and contests. However, Everton will likely try it; they know how dangerous Brentford are on transitions and will probably want to avoid playing through them too often and leaving themselves exposed at the back. Everton are desperate for a win and would take it however it arrives; a fluke goal, a set piece – whatever.

Brentford’s Physicality and Directness Can Punish The Merseysiders

As stated, Brentford are a physical, direct, and powerful team. In a way, they are a throwback to the football of old. They like to use high energy and intense pressing to win the ball in dangerous areas and break into the opponents’ final third. They are also great in the air with their tall centre-backs and long balls up to Toney. Therefore, Brentford could bully Everton in this game. Brentford are better at home, as we have said, but they have been decent on their travels too. They will look to use their industry and muscle to overpower Everton.

Brentford are not just a team of bruisers; the likes of the Toney, Mbeumo, Hickey, Norgaard and the small, nimble Damsgaard are all technically gifted too. They will get the ball into the channels for combinations of Damsgaard, Hickey, Henry, Wissa, Toney and Mbeumo to overload the full-back areas where Everton will likely have to play their second-choice players (given Patterson and Mykolenko’s injury problems). These players are all tricky and dangerous and can use their pace and dribbling to get in behind and deliver crosses or get shots on goal. We also think Norgaard is important in the defensive midfield position – both these teams like to cede possession, so when Everton do have the ball, Norgaard’s positioning and ball-winning are vital. Janelt and Dasilva are positive bench options.

Our Prediction

Who really knows with this one? On the one hand, Brentford are the better team, with the better coach in Thomas Frank and better players. They are also in superior form. Several years ago, it would have been unthinkable for an English football institution such as Everton to be considered inferior to a smaller club like Brentford. We don’t mean any disrespect to the London club. In fact, what we are saying is a testament to how brilliantly they have progressed through the leagues using their sophisticated analytics and scouting system. They are now in a position where they can go away to Goodison and have a realistic chance of winning.

The reverse fixture in August ended 1-1. However, that was when optimism was still high at the start of the season. Everton’s poor form hadn’t had the chance to manifest itself fully (though the warning signs should have been there from last season). In this game, Brentford can get a positive result. Their physical and direct style of football is kryptonite to Everton, and the Toffees might struggle to cope with it. We will go for a 2-1 win for Brentford, though the game could just as easily be a draw. Everton have lost seven at Goodison this season. Brentford are in a good moment right now, and we believe they can get a victory and deepen Everton’s problems further.

Everton 1-2 Brentford

Everton vs Brentford Betting Tip – Brentford Odds: