Arsenal vs Brentford – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at another London derby between Arsenal and Brentford. With Brentford on the rise, could they possibly get something here? Read on with our Arsenal vs Brentford prediction.

Arsenal vs Brentford Match Preview

Arsenal enter this game in generally impressive form, having accumulated 22 points from their last nine games. This run has included decisive victories against Chelsea, Brighton, North London rivals Spurs, and Man United. However, they did lose their previous game away at Goodison Park. They were somewhat unlucky to be up against the new manager bounce as it was Sean Dyche’s first match in charge of Everton. However, a James Tarkowski header has derailed the Gunners’ progress.

Nevertheless, Arsenal sit in first place in the table with a five-point lead over Man City and a game in hand. They hope to maintain their grip at the top of the table against Brentford. The signs are good, having won eight of their nine home games this season. It also remains to be seen how European football returning in the coming weeks will affect the London side; they have mostly been playing once a week with a first eleven that picks itself.

Brentford make the short trip to the Emirates in imposing form. Indeed, the London club sit at the top of the form table over the last six games, picking up 14 points from 18. This run includes a brilliant victory over Liverpool. Their run could have been even better had the Bees not surrendered a two-goal lead against Tottenham on Boxing Day.

Brentford have won two of the last six away games (though one of those was an outstanding performance at the Etihad), so it is clear that the foundation for their excellent form has been at home rather than away. Brentford have not lost in their last nine league games. They can take this form into the match. They did, though, lose the reverse fixture 3-0, so they will be wary about opening up in this game. Sitting in seventh place with 33 points after 21 games, the Bees will try to mount a challenge for Europe.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Arsenal:

Might Not Play: Smith-Rowe

Will Not Play: Elneny, Nelson, Jesus

Brentford:

Might Not Play: Baptiste, Jansson, Onyeka

Will Not Play: N/A

Arsenal vs Brentford Lineups (Predicted)

Arsenal (4-3-3/4-2-3-1): Ramsdale; Zinchenko, Gabriel, Saliba, White; Partey, Xhaka; Martinelli, Odegaard, Saka; Nketiah

Brentford (3-5-2): Raya; Mee, Pinnock, Ajer; Henry, Norgaard, Jensen, Dasilva, Hickey; Toney, Mbeumo

Arsenal vs Brentford Analysis

Arsenal are Likely to Control Possession

This season, Arsenal sit in fifth place in the possession table, averaging 57.5 per cent. On the other hand, Brentford are in 18th with 43.6 per cent. Arsenal are also high up the completed passes table, whereas Brentford are second from the bottom. Therefore, it is clear what the pattern of play in this game will be – Arsenal will dominate the ball, particularly at home. Brentford will likely play three at the back and sit in, using the energy of Norgaard, Jensen and Dasilva to make tackles and try to disrupt Arsenal’s rhythm.

The onus will be on Xhaka, Odegaard and Partey to be creative, make plays, and try to find gaps between the compact Brentford defensive and midfield lines. Brentford will likely squeeze the space and make it very difficult for Arsenal to find the gaps and areas they love to play where they utilise their forwards’ technical ability. There is much responsibility on Norgaard especially. As the primary defensive midfielder, he must shield the three centre-backs and come across to cover. The three at the back is valuable because Arsenal are dangerous in the wide areas with Martinelli and Saka. There will likely be less space in these channels because the two wider centre-backs will compress it and also be supported by Henry and Hickey at wing-back.

Zinchenko is a big key to this match. Unlike the more conventional Tierney, the Ukrainian is often tasked with coming inside into midfield from his left-back position. This movement allows him to dictate the play. It simultaneously permits Xhaka to move further forward in the left channel and support Martinelli. This situation enables Xhaka’s penetrative passing to be fully displayed as he advances. Hence, Zinchenko will likely play as an auxiliary midfield playmaker sometimes, aiding Xhaka to impact the attack. This tactic also allows Zinchenko to control the game.

Attacking Areas

Arsenal are a dangerous team this season. With 45 goals and over 300 shots, they both create and convert chances. Brentford will know this. Arsenal will look to Odegaard and the previously mentioned Zinchenko to be their playmakers in midfield. Odegaard is especially adept at picking up the ball on the half-turn in any spaces between the defensive and midfield lines of the opposition. The Norwegian is a brilliantly intelligent footballer, and his ability to dictate play could be crucial to opening up a well-organised Brentford side.

Brentford coach Thomas Frank may well task one of his midfielders with man-marking Odegaard to limit the space he can find. However, if he can find space, he will look to release Martinelli and Saka on the wings. The two wide men can attack Henry and Hickey and look to make their way into the box and link with Nketiah to play their way through tight spaces. Arsenal are a team who can find their way through the smallest of gaps thanks to their highly creative players, so Brentford must keep distances between teammates to a minimum.

Xhaka and Partey must also be mindful of the Brentford counter-attack and their physicality – Brentford are a big and powerful side and will look to bully Arsenal. They will try to tackle, intercept, and use their pace on transitions to get in behind an out-of-shape Arsenal structure. Toney and Mbeumo are both very fast and strong and can overpower any defender in the league. They are also talented finishers. Gabriel and Saliba must be strong one-on-one in these defensive positions.

On the occasions Brentford have more possession, Hickey and Henry will look to deliver crosses, and Brentford will also target set pieces as an area they can hurt Arsenal. The Arsenal defence must also beware of runs from players such as Dasilva, Jensen, and Janelt from deeper areas. These players sometimes break into the box to support the front two. The fresh legs of Wissa could also be a threat. Generally, Arsenal must attack Brentford but not leave themselves over-exposed as Brentford are one of the league’s better counter-attacking sides.

Our Prediction

This game is a challenging one to predict. On the one hand, Arsenal have been brilliant for most of the season. Alternatively, Brentford are the league’s most in-form team and (as stated) have not lost for nine games. Their 3-0 win against Southampton last time out was also emphatic, though Arsenal away represents a much stiffer test. Arsenal will be very disappointed with their loss against Everton, given they couldn’t increase the gap further to Man City. However, the Gunners did not lose ground on the Manchester club either, as the Citizens lost to Spurs.

With their organisation and ability to break at speed, Brentford can give Arsenal a tough time. We foresee an encounter where Arsenal try to create all day, but Brentford make it difficult for them and present a threat of their own. If Arsenal have a good day, they could win quite comfortably as they did at the Community Stadium earlier in the season. However, Brentford are brimming with confidence right now. We predict a narrow home win to end Brentford’s run; we are sure Arsenal coach Mikel Arteta would be delighted with such a result.

Arsenal 2-1 Brentford

Arsenal vs Brentford Betting Tip – Over 2.5 Goals Odds: