Southampton vs Bournemouth – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

Thursday 27th April 2023
19:45 GMT
St Mary’s Stadium

As part of our midweek Premier League predictions, we examine Bournemouth’s trip to Southampton. Southampton have the PL’s worst home record, but Bournemouth were well beaten last time out. Stalemate? Read on with our Southampton vs Bournemouth prediction.



3-3 (A)

Crystal Palace

2-0 (H)

Man City

4-1 (H)

West Ham

1-0 (A)


3-3 (H)


West Ham

4-0 (H)


3-2 (A)


1-0 (A)


2-0 (H)


2-1 (H)

Southampton vs Bournemouth Match Preview

The terms ‘shocked’ ‘stunned’ and ‘upset’ are arguably overused in modern football to describe results that actually had a reasonable chance of happening, but Southampton’s 3-3 draw at the Emirates was indeed a shocking upset that left the vast majority stunned. Southampton took advantage of Arsenal’s nerves and slack defending in transition to race into a 2-0 lead, before adding a third goal midway through the second half and hanging on for a point.

Though objectively, Arsenal were good value for at least a point, those two late goals will have stung. Three points are three points, and whether or not the point at the Emirates that Southampton gained was completely unexpected, they could feel as though they’ve dropped another two points.

Southampton face three difficult away trips in their Premier League relegation battle run-in – at Newcastle, Nottingham Forest who have just defeated Brighton at home and Brighton. Home games against Fulham and Liverpool round off the season, and they will need to show the same application and fight as they did last time out against Arsenal in order to survive. They remain six points from safety, albeit with a game in hand.

Their south coast rivals Bournemouth are four points ahead of 18th placed Leicester but were brutally brought back down to Earth following their upturn in form as West Ham put them to the sword with an emphatic 4-0 victory. Manager Gary O’Neil was insistent that the defeat was as a result of Bournemouth completely failing to negate West Ham’s strengths, and after going 2-0 down in 12 minutes West Ham were able to settle and pick Bournemouth off on the break for the remainder of the match.

Bournemouth’s away form was, until recently, hugely problematic for their chances of survival, but recently they’ve won three of their last five Premier League away matches and will certainly be travelling to their relegation-threatened neighbours with the intention of earning all three points.

This match is part of a series of fixtures in which Bournemouth face three of their rivals in their bid for Premier League survival (we think Crystal Palace are safe in all likelihood). They play at home to Leeds United following this fixture, and away to Everton at Goodison Park on the final day. Additionally, Bournemouth will likely feel they can get a result at home against a Chelsea side in disarray.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions


Might Not Play: Bednarek, Livramento

Will Not Play: Larios, Salisu


Might Not Play: Traore

Will Not Play: Fredericks, Stanislas, Stephens

Southampton vs Bournemouth Lineups (Predicted)

Southampton (4-2-3-1): Bazunu; Walker-Peters, Bednarek, Bella-Kotchap, Perraud; Ward-Prowse, Lavia; Elyounoussi, Alcaraz, Walcott; Adams

Bournemouth (4-2-3-1): Neto; Kelly, Senesi, Mepham, Smith; Lerma, Rothwell; Christie, Outtara, Billing; Solanke

Southampton vs Bournemouth Lineup
Bournemouth vs Southampton Lineup

Southampton vs Bournemouth Analysis

Southampton Will Try to Start Fast – But They’re Too Open

The key to Southampton gaining an unlikely draw at the Emirates lay in their fast start as they pressed aggressively from the front and took risks out of possession. Arsenal have a lot of attacking talent at their disposal so they were able to claw their way back into the match at the death, but Bournemouth would almost certainly find it more difficult to break down Southampton if they were to get ahead and settle. The temptation would be for Southampton to be too expansive if they find themselves in the ascendancy and give Bournemouth the space they crave in transition.

In fact, Southampton have been caught out a lot this season when trying to play an expansive, possession-based brand of football. While it’s admirable to see ‘lesser’ sides playing positively, we don’t feel it’s helping their cause. It’s too much for them to handle defensively when they lose the ball, and they’re not capable of consistently stopping transitions at this level. Every single one of their victories in 2023 against Premier League opposition saw them have less of the ball, not more. 5 victories, including Everton and Crystal Palace who aren’t renowned ball-dominant teams.

Bournemouth Will Be Happier Playing on the Break

Bournemouth are set up primarily to attack through rapid transitions, and since the post-World Cup restart, they’ve been rather good at it. It can prove difficult for teams to rein in their attacking instincts against teams they believe they ‘should’ beat, and Bournemouth have successively taken advantage of Wolves, Liverpool, Fulham, Leicester and Spurs – all of whom had more possession than O’Neil’s men (though they Leicester match was 51%-49%)

It’s one thing knowing that teams such as Bournemouth are going to play like that, but what can you do about it? Not committing enough men forward to break down the low block can result in a sterile match in which both teams seem to take turns to attack as the ‘dominant’ side run out of options. Commit too many men forward, and we all know the result against teams who are proficient in transition – in trying to score, you’re opening yourself up to the counter.

Our Prediction

This is an incredibly difficult match to predict, and it would seem to depend a lot on how Southampton approach this one. If they prioritise keeping the ball, recycling possession and playing in Bournemouth’s half, we don’t feel that have the quality at the moment for that approach to be sustainable for 90 minutes.

If, however, they’re able to disrupt Bournemouth in their own half and attack with pace and purpose then we expect they can put their home advantage to good use. Bournemouth, as always, will remain a strong threat in transition for a side battling relegation, and we expect they’ll do enough to claim their share of the spoils.

Southampton 1-1 Bournemouth

Southampton vs Bournemouth Betting Tip – Draw Odds:


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