Southampton vs Bournemouth – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our midweek Premier League predictions, we examine Bournemouth’s trip to Southampton. Southampton have the PL’s worst home record, but Bournemouth were well beaten last time out. Stalemate? Read on with our Southampton vs Bournemouth prediction.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Southampton:

Might Not Play: Bednarek, Livramento

Will Not Play: Larios, Salisu

Bournemouth:

Might Not Play: Traore

Will Not Play: Fredericks, Stanislas, Stephens

Southampton vs Bournemouth Lineups (Predicted)

Southampton (4-2-3-1): Bazunu; Walker-Peters, Bednarek, Bella-Kotchap, Perraud; Ward-Prowse, Lavia; Elyounoussi, Alcaraz, Walcott; Adams

Bournemouth (4-2-3-1): Neto; Kelly, Senesi, Mepham, Smith; Lerma, Rothwell; Christie, Outtara, Billing; Solanke

Southampton vs Bournemouth Analysis

Southampton Will Try to Start Fast – But They’re Too Open

The key to Southampton gaining an unlikely draw at the Emirates lay in their fast start as they pressed aggressively from the front and took risks out of possession. Arsenal have a lot of attacking talent at their disposal so they were able to claw their way back into the match at the death, but Bournemouth would almost certainly find it more difficult to break down Southampton if they were to get ahead and settle. The temptation would be for Southampton to be too expansive if they find themselves in the ascendancy and give Bournemouth the space they crave in transition.

In fact, Southampton have been caught out a lot this season when trying to play an expansive, possession-based brand of football. While it’s admirable to see ‘lesser’ sides playing positively, we don’t feel it’s helping their cause. It’s too much for them to handle defensively when they lose the ball, and they’re not capable of consistently stopping transitions at this level. Every single one of their victories in 2023 against Premier League opposition saw them have less of the ball, not more. 5 victories, including Everton and Crystal Palace who aren’t renowned ball-dominant teams.

Bournemouth Will Be Happier Playing on the Break

Bournemouth are set up primarily to attack through rapid transitions, and since the post-World Cup restart, they’ve been rather good at it. It can prove difficult for teams to rein in their attacking instincts against teams they believe they ‘should’ beat, and Bournemouth have successively taken advantage of Wolves, Liverpool, Fulham, Leicester and Spurs – all of whom had more possession than O’Neil’s men (though they Leicester match was 51%-49%)

It’s one thing knowing that teams such as Bournemouth are going to play like that, but what can you do about it? Not committing enough men forward to break down the low block can result in a sterile match in which both teams seem to take turns to attack as the ‘dominant’ side run out of options. Commit too many men forward, and we all know the result against teams who are proficient in transition – in trying to score, you’re opening yourself up to the counter.

Our Prediction

This is an incredibly difficult match to predict, and it would seem to depend a lot on how Southampton approach this one. If they prioritise keeping the ball, recycling possession and playing in Bournemouth’s half, we don’t feel that have the quality at the moment for that approach to be sustainable for 90 minutes.

If, however, they’re able to disrupt Bournemouth in their own half and attack with pace and purpose then we expect they can put their home advantage to good use. Bournemouth, as always, will remain a strong threat in transition for a side battling relegation, and we expect they’ll do enough to claim their share of the spoils.

Southampton 1-1 Bournemouth

Southampton vs Bournemouth Betting Tip – Draw Odds: