Spurs vs Chelsea – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we examine Chelsea’s visit to the London Stadium. Chelsea have scored 6 in 10 games; Spurs have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 games. Low scoring game? Read on with our Spurs vs Chelsea prediction.

Spurs vs Chelsea Match Preview

Despite their current occupation of the final Champions League qualification spot in the Premier League table, Spurs come into this London derby in decidedly mixed form. If it wasn’t for their fast start to the season, Spurs would be hovering somewhere around mid-table. We don’t exaggerate here –
take away the first 10 matches of the season, and Conte’s men have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 7 Premier League matches. This current run of form isn’t sustainable from a side currently in the Champions League and with ambitions of regular participation.

On a somewhat brighter note, Spurs have won three of their last four games. Though this run of games includes a disappointing 4-1 defeat to a wildly inconsistent Leicester side, consecutive 1-0 victories over Fulham and Manchester City, and a 2-0 victory over West Ham last time out have ensured that Spurs remain very much involved in the fight for Champions League qualification. With Liverpool and today’s opponents playing like shadows of their former selves, and Newcastle winless in four, this mini-run of good form has come at an opportune time.

While we talk about Spurs and their early season form propping them up, Chelsea have had nothing so grand to fall back in, and are in a previously unthinkable 10th position. If we look at the Premier League table for the last 15 games, Potter’s men have won just 3 matches, drawing 6 and losing 6. Frankly, a return of 15 points from 15 games is approaching relegation form, and they look like a team in disarray.

You don’t need to be a football expert to conclude that scoring just twice in five Premier League matches is going to result in a run of poor form. While at times it has been some bouts of poor fortune in front of goal that could be held responsible for their results this season – a prime example being the Champions League round of 16 first-leg defeat against Dortmund – it’s difficult to blame this run on football being a high variance sport when they’ve been consistently poor in front of goal.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Spurs:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Bentancur, Bissouma, Lloris, Sessegnon

Chelsea:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Azpilicueta, Broja, Kante, Mendy, Pulisic

Spurs vs Chelsea Lineups (Predicted)

Spurs (3-4-3): Forster; Davies, Dier, Romero; Perisic, Sarr, Hojbjerg, Emerson Royal; Richarlison, Kane, Kulusevski

Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Arrizabalaga; Cucurella, Badiashile, Silva, James; Fernandez, Kovacic; Mudyrk, Joao Felix, Ziyech; Havertz

Spurs vs Chelsea Analysis

Spurs’ Proficiency on the Break

Sometimes, counterattacking, or playing on the break, gets something of a bad rap. Oftentimes, football pundits, fans and occasionally coaches will get caught in the trap of looking at the possession stats, looking at the shots on goal and declaring ‘they should have won that game’. This can be a fallacious argument if the chances created are of poor quality, the possession sterile and the tempo is ponderous. Keeping the ball, playing on your own terms and looking to break down the opposition is a fine, even optimal approach when your team is capable of breaking down packed defences, but when it isn’t it’s obviously better to consider other approaches.

So what does this have to do with Spurs vs Chelsea? Well, Chelsea are frankly a team of empty statistics at the moment (save for xG). Yes, they will see a lot of the ball, but what will they do with it? If current form is anything to go by, they’ll appear accomplished until it’s time to play the final ball, or a chance materialises in front of goal and they have a split-second to act. This combination of an adherence to possession-based football combined with a lack of threat in the final third will provide Spurs with all the opportunities they need to regain possession and counter at will.

If there’s one thing this Spurs team can do well with regularity, it’s making the most of their opportunities in transition. While every man and his cat knows that Harry Kane has developed into a fine playmaker-forward over the years, it’s his presence in attack which provides Spurs with a fluidity on the break which ensures that they’re not lumping hopeful balls into space for their attackers and flying wing-backs to run onto. Kane has often both started and finished these sweeping counters for Spurs, and this matchup appears to be primed for his particular talents.

Can Chelsea Finally Click?

While this preview thus far may seem like a hatchet job on Chelsea and Graham Potter – a man who has very publicly and bravely in our estimation spoken about the impact of his team’s struggles on his personal life, Chelsea aren’t actually a terrible football team overall. In fact, at times they’ve been downright unlucky, but unfortunately, we can’t dismiss their extended poor run of form as bad luck. If we’re to examine their strengths, they are competent at retaining possession, and they do enter the final third enough to generate chances.

The question is, can they be more dangerous in the final third? If the answer to such a question was so simple, Premier League clubs wouldn’t bother with elite coaching and analytics – they’d simply send the lads out there to have some fun and ‘get at’ the opposition. While we’re sure that even in those halcyon days there was tactical instruction in training during the week and perhaps a bit of talk in the dressing room, there’s no denying that the game is tactically more complex today.

Talent isn’t the issue – Chelsea can call upon Havertz, Mudryk, Joao Felix, Ziyech, Mount, Sterling, Pulisic, Fofana, Madueke, Broja, the exiled Aubameyang and apologies to any attacking player we’ve left out. With Enzo Fernandez and Kovacic behind them in central midfield, one would think that would be enough to win the majority of their games. Unfortunately, real-world team chemistry isn’t as simple as it is in Football Manager, and therefore despite their embarrassment of riches in their squad, Chelsea don’t look like a team. If they do start to click, their fortunes could be rapidly transformed.

Our Prediction

Chelsea should have more of the ball, yet Spurs will likely generate the greater threat, the better opportunities and with home advantage, we’d expect them to push for the win. Chelsea have been dropping points and indeed, losing to teams with less of an attacking threat than the Spurs trio of Kane, Richarlison and Kulusevski, or Son if Conte deems him worthy of inclusion here after he came on and made an instant impact last time out against West Ham.

We’ve made the point that Chelsea have a lot of talent at their disposal, and it’s possible that any one or two of them could produce a moment of magic, a defence-splitting one-two or any other kind of inspiration or improvisation to generate an attacking threat. However, we don’t see any coherent attacking play from Chelsea as a team, and therefore it’s difficult to back them to win games at the moment. We’ll back them to score as this Spurs team is hardly impenetrable and they have had some bad luck in front of goal recently, but we back Spurs.

Spurs 2-1 Chelsea

Spurs vs Chelsea Betting Tip – Spurs Odds: