Bournemouth vs Newcastle – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Saturday 11th February 2023
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we look at Newcastle’s visit to the Vitality Stadium. Both sides have struggled in front of goal recently – are we in for a dour affair? Read on with our Bournemouth vs Newcastle prediction.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle Match Preview
Bournemouth enter this game against the Geordies in dreadful form. They have lost eight of their last ten games, with their solitary win against Everton just before the World Cup. Defeats to Chelsea, Palace, Man Utd, Brentford, and Brighton have followed. Their only point in their six league games post the Qatar tournament has been a home draw to Forest. This sole point from 18 leaves them firmly rooted to the bottom of the form table across the last six.
Their home form across this period is a little better, having picked up seven points from the previous 18 – but this pre-dates the World Cup. Sitting in 19th place, just two points ahead of bottom club Southampton, Bournemouth are certainties for relegation if they do not improve their form quickly.
Alternatively, Newcastle come to the Vitality Stadium on a long unbeaten run and have lost only once this season. Their issue has been accumulating too many draws, with last week’s tie with West Ham being their tenth of the season. Newcastle know that turning these draws into wins is crucial to finish in the Champions League positions.
Four of these drawn matches have come in the last six, where they have picked up 10 points. Their record away from home in the previous six is pretty good, with three wins and three draws. They sit in fourth place with 40 points from 21 games and have third-place Man Utd firmly in their sights.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play: Cook, Kelly, Stephens, Tavernier, Solanke
Will Not Play: Frederick, Brooks, Stanislas
Might Not Play: Isak
Will Not Play: Targett, Krafth, Manquillo, M Longstaff, Guimaraes
Bournemouth vs Newcastle Lineups (Predicted)
Leicester (4-3-3/4-2-3-1): Ward; Kristiansen, Faes, Souttar, Castagne; Dewsbury-Hall Tielemans; Barnes, Maddison, Tete; Iheanacho
Spurs (3-4-3): Forster; Davies, Dier, Sanchez; Perisic, Bentancur, Hojbjerg, Emerson Royal; Son, Kane, Kulusevski
Bournemouth vs Newcastle Analysis
Bournemouth’s Struggles. Can They Hurt Newcastle?
As stated, Bournemouth have significant problems this season. The new-manager bounce after the sacking of Scott Parker has been well and truly eroded, and now they require another massive improvement in form to stand any chance of staying in the division for next season. An enormous part of their problem is that they do not score enough goals – they have 19 in their 21 games this season, which works out at 0.9 per game. Furthermore, they have conceded the most goals with 43 (though this stat is slightly skewed by Liverpool’s 9-0 win against them). They are therefore averaging over two goals conceded per game.
It is clear, therefore, that – even with the Liverpool outlier accounted for – Bournemouth generally need to score at least two goals in a game to stand any chance of winning. This situation does not bode well in this game, as the Magpies have conceded the least number of goals in the league – 12. Hence, we have a team that struggles to score, facing the meanest defence in the league. Bournemouth’s best chance of breaching Newcastle appears to be on the counter-attack. In Tavernier, Ouattara, and Traore, the Cherries have some pace, guile, and trickery in their team. Manager Gary O’Neil will hope these players can increase Bournemouth’s output in attack for the remainder of the season.
Bournemouth will look to their forwards to try to find spaces between the lines. It is here that the Newcastle midfielders must cover the gaps. The Cherries wingers will also attack Burn and Trippier. However, both Newcastle full-backs have been solid and defensively sound all season; it will take something special for Bournemouth to break through the Toon rearguard. The fact is that Bournemouth have arguably the weakest squad in the league, so it makes sense that they’re struggling at both ends of the pitch.
Newcastle’s Defensive Record and Attacking Threat
Newcastle’s defensive strength this season is not a fluke. Coach Eddie Howe has done much work on the training pitch to drill his 4-3-3 system into his players. He will have worked long and hard to ensure his players know exactly where they are supposed to be at all moments; how to defend without the ball and how to get back into shape when they lose it on transitions. This endeavour starts from the front, where the likes of Wilson, Almiron, and Joelinton have pressed and worked all season tirelessly to stop teams from being able to break through the first line of defence where possible.
Guimaraes has likely been Newcastle’s best player this season. However, he is still serving his suspension, so Bournemouth will feel they can get more joy than usual against the Magpies’ midfield. Newcastle are still strong in many areas of the pitch, however. Trippier will be a significant weapon in attack, as usual. He will go forward and link up with Almiron as well as deliver crosses for Wilson.
Wilson’s goal last week was his first since October. It came as he raced on to a beautiful through ball from Sean Longstaff. Longstaff and his teammates must continue playing passes of such quality and providing this service to Wilson. It is hard to see how Bournemouth can keep Newcastle out if they do. Wilson is an excellent finisher and will look to play on the shoulder of the Bournemouth centre-backs. Isak may also be an option if he has recovered from concussion.
Newcastle are lower down the league’s list for passes completed, in 13th place. This stat highlights that they are a more direct team who like to win the ball and head for the goal without spending too much time passing the ball or recycling possession. This style makes sense when you consider that they have excellent dribblers in their squad, such as Guimaraes, Almiron, and Saint-Maximin. Trippier also does everything relatively economically. Hence, we see little change here. Newcastle will likely have more of the ball as the better team. However, they will also be happy when Bournemouth have it to lure the Cherries onto them and then break with the pace of their wingers. In this respect, Lerma and Billing must be diligent in covering spaces. Otherwise, the defenders could be left in one-v-one or two-v-one situations.
Newcastle dropped points from a commanding position last weekend against West Ham. They took control of the game after a fast start, then let the Hammers back into it. Their faltering doesn’t bode well for Bournemouth, as Newcastle will be keen to put things right and start a winning run again. One thing Bournemouth will hope is that the Magpies have one eye on the Carabao Cup Final, but that is still two weeks away.
Football is, of course, a game of high variance, and upsets can happen. However, the sensible prediction is a Newcastle win and a clean sheet. Bournemouth are simply struggling to score, and we will have to wait to see if one of their new signings can alter their fortunes. Newcastle don’t often concede goals, and we see them scoring at least one. Bournemouth are defensively porous, and we can’t envisage them scoring two or more goals, which we think they will need to get something out of this. 1-0 or 2-0 Newcastle seems the sensible bet while adding the caveat that football is a game of surprises.
Bournemouth 0-2 Newcastle
Bournemouth vs Newcastle Betting Tip – Under 2.5 Goals Odds:
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