Southampton vs Crystal Palace – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take examine Crystal Palace’s visit to Southampton. The Saints are 4 points adrift of 17th and desperately need results – can they get anything here? Read on with our Southampton vs Crystal Palace prediction.

Southampton vs Crystal Palace Match Preview

Mired at the foot of the table with just eight Premier League matches remaining and four points adrift from 17th-placed Everton, Southampton’s situation is starting to look pretty desperate given their current form. While they weren’t seriously expected to pick up a positive result against Manchester City even at home, the manner of their defeat was comprehensive as they conceded three second-half goals in the space of 17 minutes to slump to a 4-1 defeat at St Mary’s. One shot on target over the course of 90 minutes serves to highlight their predicament, and with games running out, they need to take more risks.

The Saints were perhaps fortunate that four other clubs involved in this season’s relegation battle – Leeds, Everton, Nottingham Forest and Leicester – also lost their last Premier League matches. While the situation is admittedly grim, it’s hardly irretrievable. Disappointingly for the south coast club, they have been unable to rely on their home form to give them a boost, with only Leicester possessing a comparably bad home record this season. Southampton’s run-in includes matches against Arsenal, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool, and as such this will be treated as a must-win fixture.

Crystal Palace have hit a timely patch of form with Roy Hodgson’s return to the club, and their second-half display away to Leeds United was devastating as they secured a scarcely-believable 5-1 victory at Elland Road. Four goals in 24 second-half minutes ensured another three points for the South Londoners as they continue to pull away from the relegation zone – the gap now stands at six points between themselves and Nottingham Forest. They were utterly dominant in the second half as they attacked with precision and purpose.

Depending upon results elsewhere, a win here for Palace would open up a serious gap between themselves and relegation trouble and would possibly be enough barring a complete collapse in their own form. Palace do play many of their relegation rivals in the run-in (Southampton, Everton, Wolves, West Ham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest) and though they are weaker teams they are likely to be well-motivated. On the other hand, Spurs are the only ‘big club’ they have to face and therefore we expect Palace to stay up rather comfortably, particularly in light of their recent improvement in performances.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Southampton:

Might Not Play: Adams, Lavia, Salisu

Will Not Play: Larios, Livramento

Crystal Palace:

Might Not Play: Ferguson, Richards

Will Not Play: Guaita, Zaha

Southampton vs Crystal Palace Lineups (Predicted)

Southampton (4-2-3-1): Bazunu; Walker-Peters, Bednarek, Bella-Kotchap, Perraud; Ward-Prowse, Diallo; Sulemana, Alcaraz, Walcott; Adams

Crystal Palace (4-3-3): Johnstone; Mitchell, Guehi, Andersen, Ward; Doucoure, Schlupp, Eze; Olise, Ayew, Edouard

Southampton vs Crystal Palace Analysis

Southampton Must Take the Handbrake Off

While it would be ludicrous to suggest that Southampton find themselves at the foot of the table purely because they’re playing too defensively, they won’t be able to change anything if they play as they did against Brentford and West Ham recently. In both games, they had the majority of possession but did very little with it. Possession for possession’s sake, otherwise known as sterile possession, will not aid their cause. Without the accompaniment of an attacking threat, it’s actually a defensive way to play – a common misconception in football.

The Saints perform better when they move the ball quicker and employ a more direct approach in attack. They defeated relegation rivals Leicester 1-0 with 35% of the ball but all of the shots on target (5-0). Two of their three goals against Spurs in their 3-3 draw came from moving the ball quickly into wide positions and turning the Spurs defence. Palace will be coming to win – they’ve shown a more positive approach under Hodgson than they have for the majority of the season, and this means the game will become stretched if Southampton can defend with discipline and play with purpose in transition.

Crystal Palace WILL Play With the Handbrake Off

This fixture is a prime opportunity for Palace to record three straight victories and pull even further away from the relegation zone. What we’ve seen so far – 31 shots against Leicester and 2.47 xG and 16 away to Leeds for an xG of 3.29 suggests we’re likely to see something similar here. Added to the fact that Southampton simply need to go for it at this stage of the season given their predicament – a point isn’t disastrous but not much good to them either – Palace will likely have plenty of room as they had against Leeds last time out to surge forward and put their opponents under pressure.

Against the strength of opposition they’ve been facing lately, it clearly makes sense for Crystal Palace to approach these games positively. This is perhaps something they were guilty of not doing under their previous coach Patrick Vieira, as Palace were too passive against almost everybody they played since the World Cup restart. They managed to show what they’re capable of but only in spells, particularly in an excellent last 20-minute performance against Manchester United at home, and a well-earned point away to Brentford. Hodgson has made a point of coming in and insisting that these players are capable of more, and they’ve raised their performance levels thus far.

Our Prediction

With crunch time fast approaching at the bottom of the table, we’d be amazed if Southampton were to employ the same kind of plodding, possession-based approach that saw them swatted aside by both Brentford and fellow strugglers West Ham recently. Therefore, we’ll give them some credit and assume that they’ll look to attack with the same kind of urgency that saw them claw their way back into the match against Spurs.

This in turn will open up the game and lead to plenty of opportunities for Crystal Palace to essentially pick up where they left off. Though we understand that there’s very little chance of Hodgson’s men averaging over 20 attempts on goal for the rest of the season, Southampton aren’t in a position to offer significant resistance to Palace’s quick transitions. Therefore, we anticipate a keenly contested match in which the visitors will ultimately come out on top.

Southampton 1-2 Crystal Palace

Southampton vs Crystal Palace Betting Tip – Crystal Palace Odds: