Brentford vs Nottingham Forest – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Saturday 29th April 2023
GTech Community Stadium
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Nottingham Forest’s visit to Brentford. Forest have lost 8 of their last 9 away games in all competitions. 9 from 10? Read on with our Brentford vs Nottingham Forest prediction.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Preview
The hosts come into this one on the back of what you might term as a typical Brentford performance in defeating Chelsea 2-0. Chelsea may have had 73% of the ball and more efforts on goal, but for the most part, they were restricted to half-chances and crosses as Brentford packed their penalty area well. Though they were fortunate to be ahead following Azpilicueta’s defensive mishap from a corner, they took their second goal brilliantly on the break through Mbeumo as Chelsea pressed for an equaliser.
That victory at Stamford Bridge was Brentford’s first Premier League victory in seven matches. Their poor run of form beforehand has most likely scuppered their prospects of European football, but overall they’ve had a more than decent second season. While we wouldn’t rule anything out, they face Liverpool away and Man City at home, with games against West Ham and Spurs sandwiched in between, which means they will likely finish just outside of the European places.
The visitors, somewhat improbably, put Brighton to the sword with a devastating display of counterattacking football. There was an element of fortune with their equaliser, and ironically Brighton could have retaken the lead on the counter only for Mitoma’s effort to curl wide of the far post. Nottingham Forest took full advantage and added a second before grabbing the third decisive goal from the spot.
Forest might be out of the relegation zone, but we’ve a feeling that this season’s relegation battle could go down to the wire. A tricky set of fixtures might not be as difficult as they appear to be at first glance. Chelsea have struggled for much of the season, while it remains to be season if Arsenal can regain their composure following a series of disjointed performances to lose their grip on the Premier League title. They’ll also be hoping that Palace have nothing but pride to play for on the final day of the season.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Ajer, Jansson, Lewis-Potter, Norgaard, Strakhosha
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Yates, Biancone, Boly, Colback, Henderson, McKenna, Richards, Scarpa, Williams, Wood
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Lineups (Predicted)
Brentford (4-3-3): Raya; Hickey, Mee, Pinnock, Henry; Janelt, Damsgaard, Jensen; Schade, Toney, Mbeumo
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1): Navas; Niakhate, Felipe, Worrall; Aurier, Lodi, Mangala, Danilo; Gibbs-White, Johnson; Awoniyi
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Analysis
Brentford Look to be Back in Form
Before the Aston Villa match last weekend, Brentford had drawn twice and lost three on the bounce. At times in those matches, they simply hadn’t performed to the high standards they have set themselves throughout the season. Perhaps it’s easy to say that in the wake of poor results, but they were second best against a struggling Leicester City outfit at home, nobody quite knows how they escaped Brighton with a 3-3 draw, they were outplayed in the first half against Manchester United and threw away a commanding position at home to Newcastle to lose 2-1.
Now, there is a twist. In those encounters against Manchester United and Newcastle, they were the better team but in different halves – the second against Man Utd, the first against Newcastle. This suggests that it’s not necessarily fatigue that was the defining factor – all teams involved in cup runs and European football have it worse. It was a lack of concentration and being perhaps 5-10% off their game that resulted in three points in those five matches.
Against an increasingly capable Aston Villa team at home they were certainly good value for their 1-1 draw and perhaps a little unfortunate to be pegged back. Their performance against Chelsea was something that we’ve come to expect from Brentford against the big boys – clinical and tough to break down. Additionally, we expect they can be a little more adventurous against a Nottingham Forest side who have been appalling away from home this season.
Nottingham Forest’s Appalling Away Record
This promptly leads us to our next talking point. It may seem to be unnecessarily harsh to talk about a newly promoted side like that, but 6 points and 7 goals from 16 away matches, conceding well over two goals per game… it’s difficult to look past this. It’s Forest’s away form which sees them in relegation trouble – at home, they have more points than Chelsea at this stage of the season which is a rather unlikely scenario.
This also may seem harsh given that they scored twice at Anfield and looked dangerous throughout despite being dominated. A couple of key points here though – Liverpool have been poor for much of the season at defending transitions, primarily because their midfield doesn’t offer the same high-grade defensive protection that it did in previous campaigns but also because of various defensive errors both positional and technical in nature.
The other point is that Brentford simply won’t play like that. Liverpool had 81% possession as they probed and probed, and this suited Forest’s counter-attacking ambitions. Brentford are rather more direct, they prefer to get the ball into dangerous areas as quickly as possible but they also get plenty forward in support – this means they’re entertaining to watch for a direct team as opposed to some of the more agricultural stuff played by smaller clubs in years gone by.
The reverse fixture between these two sides was 2-2, with Forest rescuing a point at the death. The problem for Forest is that they’re simply not the same team away from home, and Brentford have been much improved over their last couple of performances.
Forest scored a combined 5 goals in their last two matches, but against teams who have been vulnerable to the counter-attack throughout the season. This is a very different kind of match against a team who, until recently at least, don’t concede many at home – they were conceding less than 1 per game, now it’s 17 in 16.
We think Brentford can continue their recent improvement to put Nottingham Forest away (relatively) comfortably.
Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Betting Tip – Brentford Odds:
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