Newcastle vs Southampton – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Southampton’s visit to Newcastle. Southampton are in trouble, and this is about as difficult as it gets with Newcastle in great form. Home win? Read on with our Newcastle vs Southampton prediction.

Newcastle vs Southampton Preview

Eddie Howe’s Newcastle side come into this game flying at the moment. Indeed, the North East team sit second in the league form table over the last eight games – only Man City are above them (and we know how sensational City have been in recent weeks). With seven wins from eight (the only blip being the 3-0 destruction away at Aston Villa), Newcastle are in tremendous form. Furthermore, their last two games have seen them go goal-crazy, with that 6-1 win against Spurs last weekend followed by a resounding 4-1 victory away at Everton in midweek.

Newcastle have threats from everywhere, with their wingers and two centre-forwards (Isak and Wilson) being pretty productive over this period. At St James’ Park, Newcastle have won their last three – the hammering of Spurs being joined by a commanding win over Man Utd and a victory against Wolves. They have 32 points from 15 games there this season but seem to have eradicated the niggly draws they were picking up home and away in previous months. In third place, two points ahead of Man Utd (having played a game more), they are having a brilliant season and look likely to qualify for the Champions League for the first time in two decades.

Southampton travel to the north with contrasting fortunes to Newcastle. The South Coast side sit rock-bottom of the table. Any slim chance of escaping relegation looks like it was extinguished in midweek with their 1-0 defeat at home to Bournemouth. With an xG of 0.53, the Saints created very little – indeed, with 27 goals, they have the second-lowest goals scored total in the division (Everton have the lowest with 25). Ruben Selles’s men did manage three in that surprise 3-3 draw against Arsenal at the Emirates, but that seems to have been more of an anomaly.

Away from home, the Saints actually have more points than at St Mary’s – 14 versus 10. They are currently the only side in the league with this quirk (though Leicester were in the same boat until recently). Therefore, they seem to be slightly better on the road. However, we still feel they’ll approach this encounter with Newcastle with trepidation – Newcastle are in excellent form right now, and Southampton are struggling. Indeed, Newcastle battered the Saints 4-1 in the reverse fixture, so the signs are ominous. Sitting six points from safety with 24 points, Southampton must win this game at all costs.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Newcastle:

Might Not Play: Ferguson

Will Not Play: Krafth, S Longstaff, Saint-Maximin,

Southampton:

Might Not Play: Bella-Kotchap, Ward-Prowse

Will Not Play: Larios, Livramento, Perraud, Salisu

Newcastle vs Southampton Lineups (Predicted)

Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Burn, Botman, Schar, Trippier; S Longstaff, Willock, Guimaraes; Joelinton, Isak, Almiron

Southampton (4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1): McCarthy; Walker-Peters, Bednarek, Caleta-Car, Maitland-Niles; Elyounoussi, Lavia, Ward-Prowse, Walcott; Adams, Alcaraz

Newcastle vs Southampton Analysis

Newcastle Are in Fantastic Form And Will Likely Control This Match Against Southampton

Newcastle have scored ten games in their last two games. Hence, they come into this match buoyed and full of confidence. Against the side bottom of the table, we expect Newcastle to control this match heavily and go for the jugular against a Southampton side bereft of confidence. Newcastle will likely get the ball into midfield, where Guimaraes and Sean Longstaff have been dominant all season. The former, especially, is a fantastic player, and his battle with Ward-Prowse in this match should be fascinating. We anticipate that Newcastle will keep the ball and maintain possession for large spells of the game.

The Magpies can implement their 4-3-3 system in various ways and have numerous threats when they can get it into forward positions. While they can control games, there will also be occasional moments when they will be happy to let Southampton have more of the ball so they can break on the Saints. Southampton can be quite an open team, which largely accounts for why they concede so many and are bottom of the table. While Almiron, Murphy, Joelinton, Gordon and Willock are all threats out wide when building the play, they are also adept at breaking at pace and dribbling on counters when the opposition overcommits. Hence, Newcastle have various strings to their bow.

In the striker position, Newcastle have two excellent options in Isak and Wilson. Howe has been rotating them, but Isak might start this one. His mazy dribbling run for Murphy’s tap against Everton was beautiful – he offers much silkiness, pace, dribbling prowess, finishing and hold-up play. Wilson is a bit more physical and likely to bully defenders, so it’s a nice balance. The wingers and Trippier from right-back will ably support them. While the Englishman hasn’t registered an assist in the previous five games, his crossing and build-up play have been crucial for Newcastle.

A quick note on Southampton on the break – Newcastle must be cautious of being caught by Southampton counters. These situations are where Guimaraes, Longstaff, Burn and the centre-backs come in handy. They’re all physical, solid, and good at preventing counters at the source or during. These situations are Southampton’s best chances to score, so if Newcastle can stop them, they have an excellent chance of winning.

Southampton Are An Open Team But Should Play On The Break Here

Southampton are – as we said above – a bit more of an open and expansive side than you’d expect from teams at the base of the table. Despite being bottom, six sides average less possession than Southampton this season. Hence, with their 45 per cent, they try to play a more progressive game than plenty of sides down at the bottom. While it is commendable that they try to maintain their principles (they’ve tended to play good football relative to resources since being promoted about a decade ago), there is also a degree of naivety here.

In this game, Southampton would be better served going back to basics, defending with a low block and making it hard for Newcastle to break them down. This sort of football talk tends to be rather rudimentary – ‘sit back and make it hard for them!’ – but we do think it works to at least limit the damage when up against a side as free-flowing and in form as Newcastle are right now. Therefore, we believe Southampton should keep a compact unit between their back four and midfielders and deny Newcastle the space that could hurt the Saints. Ward-Prowse and Lavia are good passers and tireless workers in midfield. They could be crucial in keeping the system cohesive and frustrating Newcastle.

In terms of attacking, Southampton’s best avenues are counter-attacking and Ward-Prowse’s fantastic corners and free kicks. The South Coast native has a wand of a right foot which we mention whenever Southampton play. The reason is that he makes the team tick through his passing, effort and set pieces. Elyounoussi, Djenepo, Sulemana, Walcott, Adams and the inventive Alcaraz are good attacking outlets if Southampton can break quickly. However, the problem is just finding the counter-attacking situations to harm Newcastle. A further weapon from Ward-Prowse’s set pieces is 6 foot 7 attacker Paul Onuachu, who could be introduced later in the game.

Our Prediction

We can’t see how Southampton can get anything at St James’ Park. The Saints have lost 10 of their 16 games on the road this season, and it is a long trip to the North East to face a Newcastle side that is flying right now. The Toon will come into this game relishing the prospect of potentially decimating a struggling team in last place in the table. Truthfully, Southampton look doomed and are caught between a rock and a hard place here – do they attack and risk being ripped apart as they need three points, or do they sit deep and counter and try to nick the game that way?

We believe the Saints will try to be a little more conservative than they generally are, simply because of Newcastle’s goalscoring form. Southampton also appear to be a good tactical fit for Newcastle, as the Magpies have scored at least two goals in their last seven home games against the Saints (all competitions) – plus, many of these games were when Newcastle were not as good as they are now.

Football does throw up shocks (Southampton proved us wrong at Arsenal). However, we would be surprised if this is anything other than a comfortable Newcastle victory. They will be licking their lips for this match and eager to strengthen their grip on third – Southampton may pay the price.

Newcastle 3-0 Southampton

Newcastle vs Southampton Betting Tip – Newcastle -1 (win by 2 goals or more) Odds: