Brighton vs Bournemouth Prediction
Saturday 4th February 2023
American Express Community Stadium
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at struggling Bournemouth’s visit to Brighton. Bournemouth managed to stop the rot against Forest, but Brighton are in superb form. Who will prevail? Find out with our Brighton vs Bournemouth prediction.
Brighton vs Bournemouth Prediction Match Overview
Brighton come into this match having overcome a 1-0 deficit to eliminate Liverpool from the FA Cup and qualify for the fifth round. Brighton have generally been playing well under coach Robert De Zerbi and have been a breath of fresh air in the Premier League. They have defeated Southampton, Everton, and Liverpool in their last six league games. The victories at Goodison Park and against Liverpool were particularly impressive as they dominated the opposition. Their game before the cup break was away at Leicester, and a late Ferguson equaliser salvaged a point. Sitting in sixth place with 31 points from 19 games and scoring freely, they will be confident against a struggling team in this game. Brighton have designs on qualifying for Europe; these are the type of games they must win to achieve that goal.
Bournemouth are in stark contrast to the Seagulls, as the Cherries sit rock-bottom of the form table over the last ten games. They have accrued a miserable four points from 30 across that period. A win against fellow strugglers Everton has been the only victory. However, they did attain a draw with Nottingham Forest in their last league game. Their away form is dreadful – they have picked up 2 points from the previous seven, losing the last five. They have conceded 16 goals across these seven games. Bournemouth sit in the relegation zone, with 17 points from their twenty games. They have brought in some players in the January transfer window in an attempt to turn their fortunes around. Having not played a match since 21 January, Bournemouth should be fresh. However, it remains to be seen if their fresher legs can be an advantage against a team with much better players.
Brighton vs Bournemouth Team News
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play: Ferguson
Will Not Play: Colwill, Mac Allister, Lallana, Moder
Might Not Play: Billing, Fredericks, Stanislas, Tavernier, Solanke
Will Not Play: Brooks, Crook
Brighton vs Bournemouth Predicted Lineups
Brighton: (4-2-3-1): Sanchez; Estupinan, Dunk, Webster, Lamptey; Caicedo, Gilmour; Mitoma, Gross, March; Welbeck
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1): Neto; Vina, Kelly, Stephens, Smith; Lerma, Rothwell; Anthony, Traore, Ouattara; Moore
Brighton vs Bournemouth Prediction Analysis
Brighton on the Rise
Brighton have been impressing everyone with their style of play this season, and alongside Fulham, are perhaps this season’s surprise outfit. This statement is especially true given that they lost previous coach Graham Potter to Chelsea early in the season. It is a testament to the club that they have gone from strength to strength despite the instability his departure might have caused. Their versatile style of play has been at the heart of their success and challenge for European football. They are equally capable as a neat possession team and a more direct counter-attacking side. They are fourth in the possession table this season, with 57.1 per cent. They also rank highly in other statistics, such as the number of touches and passes. Therefore, we envisage them taking the game to Bournemouth in this match. They are a better team with better players and are at home.
The goalkeeper Sanchez has displayed a masterclass in ball distribution at times this season and has had 693 touches in the defensive third. Likewise, centre-back Dunk has had 1,600 touches this season, which is very high. These two, therefore, are weapons for Brighton in starting moves from the back by feeding the ball into the midfielders and out wide to the full-backs so the play can progress to the wide attackers. Sanchez and Dunk are not easily dispossessed, and many Brighton moves start with them. Further forward, the likes of March and Gross have been vital in shot-creating actions when play has developed (with 68 and 66, respectively). The left-hand side is very dangerous, with Estupinan’s threat from the left-back position and Mitoma’s dribbling and inventiveness. Smith has his work cut out to deal with this danger and will need assistance from his centre-back and the central midfielders. Ferguson is likely out, so Welbeck will come in upfront and is good at linking play too. Generally, Brighton have threats all over the pitch; we rate many of their players and the system highly. They will swarm Bournemouth and seek to feed their exciting attackers.
Bournemouth in Attack and on Transitions
Bournemouth have injury doubts to key players, which may lessen their chances of a result here. Overall, Bournemouth rank 19th for possession and 18th for touches and passing. It is evident that Bournemouth feel much more at home defending in a low block and breaking into space. Brighton will attempt to play their way through Bournemouth and play short passes in midfield through Caicedo (who has been vocal about wanting to leave but remains at Brighton and may well play) and Gilmour, as Mac Allister is suspended. They will try to find gaps between the Bournemouth defensive and midfield lines to supply the forwards. Lerma and Rothwell must cover these spaces, and if they can win the ball, they can send away the line of three in attack for Bournemouth.
Anthony, Traore, and Ouattara are all pacey and tricky players, so Bournemouth hope to catch Brighton off guard. If they can attack the spaces that Lamptey and Estupinan leave, they can find some joy in wide areas. This situation will allow them to deliver crosses for the tall Moore. Moore is also decent on the ground for such a big man, and his hold-up play will be vital in relieving the pressure Brighton apply. Despite their struggles this season, Bournemouth may carry a threat, having added some attacking reinforcements. We expect Brighton to dominate the game, but they must not be complacent. Bournemouth could upset them on transitions if they become too cavalier or overly confident. Bournemouth must defend diligently and carefully pick their moments to attack.
Beat the Bookmaker Brighton vs Bournemouth Prediction
Bournemouth have added some new players in this window, but it will take time for them to gel with the rest of the team. There is also no guarantee that these additions will change the Cherries’ fortunes. Brighton are in a good moment right now, as a club heading in the right direction, with great team chemistry and players who fulfil their roles perfectly and are commendable in terms of adhering to the system and in their individual talent. The Caicedo debacle may have destabilised them somewhat, but we must wait and see what transpires here. We expect Caicedo to play and be professional. We think Brighton have far too much for Bournemouth regarding coaching and individual ability. Their propensity to pass the ball around and cutting edge in front of the goal are highly impressive. No team can be underestimated in football, but Brighton will likely dominate and win this game comfortably. Indeed, if Brighton hit form, our prediction could even be conservative.
Brighton 2-0 Bournemouth
Beat the Bookmaker Brighton vs Bournemouth Prediction – Brighton Odds:
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