Aston Villa vs Spurs – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Saturday 13th May 2023
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we examine Spurs’ visit to Villa Park. Spurs have not won away from home since January. Villa have won their last 5 home games. 6? Free betting tips and more with our Aston Villa vs Spurs prediction.
Aston Villa vs Spurs Preview
Aston Villa come into this game having slightly stumbled following their long, unbeaten run. Indeed, defeats away to Man Utd and Wolves in back-to-back games have been setbacks for Unai Emery’s side. While they played a naive high line and probably deserved to lose at Old Trafford, it was a tight game decided by one goal, and they could have got something from it. At Molineux last weekend, Villa had 62 per cent possession, more shots, and a higher xG. They were all over Wolves for spells but couldn’t get the goals, while Wolves produced a classic counter-attacking performance to win 1-0. This game is one Villa might win if played in the same way again, so we see no major cause for concern.
Villa are eighth with 54 points from 35 games. They’re eight points behind Liverpool in fifth with nine points available, so it is virtually impossible for them to qualify for Europe – the two recent defeats have put paid to that. However, Villa are good at home – they’ve collected 32 points at Villa Park, and only six teams have been better at home. Villa have won the last five there, the highlight being hammering Newcastle, so they’ll feel confident about this game. Finishing against Liverpool and Brighton, Villa will hope to have a solid end to the season.
Spurs travel to the Midlands having finally won a game after one point from a possible twelve in the four games prior. Crystal Palace weren’t threatening in a low-scoring match at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Indeed, Harry Kane’s 26th league goal of the season on the stroke of half-time was enough to obtain the victory (after Porro’s assist). This goal was his 209th EPL goal and sent him clear of Wayne Rooney, with just Alan Shearer to chase down. Kane’s goalscoring record is indeed phenomenal.
Spurs are currently sixth in the league, five points from Liverpool, with only nine available. Their poor run of form under interim coach Ryan Mason has ensured they will likely miss out on Champions League football. This situation will affect their ability to attract players next season and possibly pave the way for Kane’s exit. The club has serious problems, but they’ll hope to finish the season well with Brentford and Leeds to come. Their away record is mediocre, though, as they’ve lost seven games of 17 before travelling to Villa Park.
The reverse fixture finished 2-0 to Villa on New Year’s Day and was a surprise for Spurs. Hence, they’ll be looking to take revenge.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play: Cash
Will Not Play: Steer
Might Not Play: Lenglet, Bissouma
Will Not Play: Lloris, Bentancur, Sessegnon
Aston Villa vs Spurs Lineups (Predicted)
Aston Villa (4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1): Martinez; Moreno, Mings, Carlos, Konsa; Ramsey, Kamara, Luiz, McGinn; Watkins, Buendia
Spurs (3-4-3 / 3-4-2-1): Forster; Davies, Dier, Romero; Perisic, Skipp, Hojbjerg, Porro; Son, Kane, Richarlison
Aston Villa vs Spurs Analysis
Villa Will Likely Put Spurs Under Pressure, But Also Have Transitional Opportunities
Villa still have faint hopes of European football, though it’s highly likely it won’t happen now. Regardless, they will still want to end the season well. Their recent two defeats following their good run are far from ideal, but they’ll know how they want to play against Spurs; they’ll come out, and press Spurs intensely from the off, fully aware that the Londoners are poor when closed down. Kamara will probably come back into the team – he and Luiz in midfield must press high and give the Spurs midfielders no time on the ball. Pressing also comes from the font, so the front four players must provide the Spurs defenders and goalkeeper with no time.
Defensively, Villa must prevent Spurs from transitioning on them. Villa will likely play a hybrid style of attacking in possession and countering at other times, so they must beware of being caught on the break. Spurs have fast players, and we expect Mings and the returning Carlos to have to make tackles, interceptions and blocks in one-on-ones and from shots or passes. Konsa might play right-back to give Young a rest (and because Cash is still not fully fit). If he does, that gives Villa another natural centre-back on the flanks to defend against the threat of Son.
In attack, Villa will combine probing football with countering, as stated. Villa will have moments where they’re trying to break Spurs down. However, we also anticipate significant spells of end-to-end football as Villa are a direct team. They’ll look to set pieces and the pace of Watkins on the break to try to punish Spurs. The Villa striker is a massive threat via dribbling and shooting in the left channel.
Buendia can drop deeper to set Watkins up with his creative ability, and Mioreno can offer overlaps from left-back. The ability of Ramsey and McGinn to come in off the sides and play more like attacking midfielders also gives Villa more numbers near the box and can compress the play. Bailey, Coutinho and Traore are energetic dribblers and passers to introduce. Their creativity off the bench might be vital.
Spurs Will Likely Play On The Counter
As stated, Spurs won at the weekend to keep their slim chances of Champions League qualification alive. However, they are still in a precarious position regarding confidence and performance. They’ll likely appear at Villa Park determined to play their natural counter-attacking game. With Villa also being a direct side playing on the counter, the teams will often stretch the game, as we said. Spurs will want Villa to come onto them and commit men forward so that they can catch the home side on the break.
What Spurs need, though, is for their goalkeeper, three centre-backs and Hojbjerg and Skipp in midfield to take care of the ball – Villa are an energetic team; if they win the ball in dangerous areas, they have the pace, passing and skill to tear Spurs apart. Therefore, Spurs must be very mindful of this threat and not be careless in possession or make errors that encourage Villa. Blocks, tackles and compression of space will be necessary for Spurs defensively.
In attacking areas, Spurs have Perisic and Porro’s threats on the flanks – the two wing-backs must get up and down the park and perform their attacking and defensive duties diligently. We anticipate them delivering crosses and cutbacks and linking up to supplement the forwards. The midfielders must come across to cover when the wing-backs advance.
Of course, the attackers will be crucial for Spurs. Kane performs his hybrid role of number 9/ number 10; his ability to drop deep and play long passes as Son, Richarlison, Kulusevski, and Danjuma run beyond him will be crucial. The wingers’ pace and ability to dribble, cut in, and shoot are significant threats. Kane will also play in the box on other occasions and be a target for crosses and through balls. The beauty of Kane’s game is variance – he is equally at home as both a playmaker and finisher (like a lesser Lionel Messi), and – as always – much of Spurs’ success at Villa Park will depend on his performance.
What to make of this match? Villa had been doing very well but have stumbled recently, whereas Spurs have been in chaos for a while. While we don’t generally overly emphasise recent trends and records, Spurs have won their last eight away matches against Villa and scored at least two goals in these games (all competitions). This statistic could be more of a quirk, or it may signify Spurs having the Indian Sign over Villa.
Generally, though, that likely means that the gap between Spurs and Villa has usually been more prominent in the last decade or so than it is now (Villa were relegated, after all). Villa are a quality team under Emery, and their two recent defeats weren’t signs of an implosion – if anything, they could have got something both at Old Trafford and Molineux. With them having the home advantage here and both teams being a threat on the break, Villa will fancy their chances. Spurs’ away record is average – while a draw might be a safer pick, we will go for Villa to attain a narrow victory.
Aston Villa 2-1 Spurs
Aston Villa vs Spurs Betting Tip – Aston Villa Odds:
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