Man Utd vs Aston Villa – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

Sunday 30th April 2023
14:00 GMT
Old Trafford

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Aston Villa’s visit to Old Trafford. Villa have 26 points from 10 games, and United are showing signs of fatigue – can Villa get a result? Read on with our Man Utd vs Aston Villa prediction.

Man Utd


2-2 (A)

Nottingham Forest

2-0 (A)


2-0 (H)


1-0 (H)


2-0 (A)

Aston Villa


1-0 (H)


1-1 (A)


3-0 (H)

Nottingham Forest

2-0 (H)


2-1 (A)

Man Utd vs Aston Villa Preview

Man Utd come into this game stuttering in their performances recently. After a disappointing exit in the Europa League, where they were trounced 3-0 in Seville, Erik Ten Hag’s men managed to get through a cagey FA Cup semi-final against Brighton on penalties. However, in midweek – following an impressive first half where Sancho and Rashford scored counter-attacking goals – Spurs came back to draw 2-2 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium through goals by Porro and Son. In truth, Spurs could have ended up winning the game. Kane was magnificent in the spaces in this game, which is ominous given that United face Villa and Buendia and Watkins next.

However, this match is taking place at Old Trafford, which will see United breathe a sign of relief. United are much better at home, having won 11 of 15, and have only conceded eight goals in the league all season. They’ve picked up 10 of the last 12 points in the division overall, so things are not all doom and gloom – we must retain a sense of balance when assessing them. They should qualify for the Champions League from here. However, with away games against Brighton and West Ham to follow this in a quick turnaround, things could get uncomfortable if they don’t get positive results over the next week.

United end the season with matches against Wolves, Bournemouth, Chelsea and Fulham – you’d fancy them in all those games. However, none is a walkover, so United must be careful. Of course, they also have the Manchester derby to come in June, too, in the FA Cup Final.

Aston Villa make the trip to the North-West in magnificent form. They have won six of their last seven games and scored in every away match since Unai Emery took over in November. Emery has really sorted out the mess that Steven Gerrard left, and his 4-2-3-1 cum 4-4-2 formation is paying dividends. It allows the defensive midfielders to be compact. At the same time, the wide players come narrow to act as central and attacking midfielders and confuse the opposition. This is one of the tactical tweaks he has made that has been beneficial.

After a deserved 1-0 win against Fulham in midweek (Mings header from a McGinn corner) which should have been more comfortable, Villa will fancy their chances of showing up at Old Trafford and having a real go at Man United. Only five teams have accumulated more points away from home than Villa – and they’ve won six of their last nine on the road. Emery has turned their fortunes around – they’re in sixth place with 54 points from 33 games, and it looks like their form under Gerrard will scupper any chance of Champions League football. However, they could realistically finish fifth and get into the Europa League. They have a difficult end to the season, though, with games against Wolves, Spurs, Liverpool and Brighton to come.

The reverse fixture was 3-1 to Villa. Hence, they are looking to do the double over United.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Man Utd:

Might Not Play: Maguire

Will Not Play: Heaton, Martinez, Varane, Jones, McTominay, Garnacho, Van De Beek

Aston Villa:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Steer, Cash, Coutinho, Kamara, Bailey

Man Utd vs Aston Villa Lineups (Predicted)

Man Utd (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): De Gea; Dalot, Shaw, Lindelof, Wan-Bissaka; Eriksen, Casemiro; Sancho, Fernandes, Antony; Rashford

Aston Villa (4-2-3-1 / 4-4-2): Martinez; Moreno, Mings, Konsa, Young; Dendoncker, Luiz; Ramsey, Buendia, McGinn; Watkins

Man Utd vs Aston Villa Lineup
Aston Villa vs Man Utd Lineup

Man Utd vs Aston Villa Analysis

Man United Have Been Poor In Second Halves Recently. They’ll Try To Play Both On The Front Foot And The Counter

United have a thin squad, which has tired recently as Ten Hag has not rotated adequately all season. While their progress has been overstated, in our opinion, there is also a significant element of fatigue. Two notable examples of them flagging towards the end of matches were when Sevilla scored two late at Old Trafford to level the game in the Europa League (which led to United’s elimination in the second leg) and the comeback by Spurs in midweek. Spurs were by far the better team in the second half, and it is clear that United lack depth beyond their first-choice eleven.

We thought that Sabitzer might come in for Eriksen in this game to give the Dane a rest, but have predicted Eriksen to start regardless. United know that a win in this game will likely seal their top-four place. In contrast, a loss could make things uncomfortable with Brighton away (who beat Wolves 6-0) and West Ham away to come. Therefore, we expect Ten Hag to ask his men to start strongly and positively, looking to get in behind Aston Villa.

However, United are still predominantly a counter-attacking side that breaks at pace and looks to use a direct threat. Hence, we expect they’ll try to lure Villa onto them so they can win the ball deep and use Fernandes’s quick and long passing to set Rashford, Sancho and Antony away. The three forwards are clever and tricky, and Rashford and Antony are especially fast. Rashford’s goal at Spurs is an example of what United can do in transition, so Villa must be wary of overcommitting and allowing United to break into vacated space. Generally, United must use the pace of their forwards and the creativity of Fernandes and Eriksen to try to create chances. Casemiro is also crucial in defensive or midfield areas.

Aston Villa Are In Excellent Form. There Could Be United Mistakes To Exploit

Villa are in resurgent form under Emery. They’ve scored in all nine of his away league games since he took over in November, and they have a strong chance of making that ten in this game. The best way to approach a match against Man Utd (especially a tired United) is to go at them and play on the front foot. Admittedly, this makes the team susceptible to United’s effective counter-attack. However, the flip side is that United are mediocre when pressed.

Indeed, from the eye test, United are one of the poorer sides in the division at retaining possession when teams close them down. De Gea’s passing and distribution are erratic in goal, and Casemiro’s composure and passing in midfield have deteriorated recently. While a very good player, Fernandes is also a high-risk and high-reward player who can give the ball away in dangerous positions.

What this means is that if the four midfielders and the attackers (Ramsey and McGinn come narrower, coming inside off the wings to play more as central or attacking midfielders) can be industrious and go after the United midfielders and defenders, there could be errors at the back that Villa can capitalise on. They could have an excellent afternoon if they can profit from potential mistakes.

Villa Will Attack But Must Not Leave The Back Door Open

On other occasions, Villa will look to the wide attackers and Buendia to be creative – getting crosses into the box and using pace, passing and dribbling to find gaps in the United defence. While the back four must be wary of the United counter, Moreno flying forward from left-back to supplement the attack can overload that left side where Buendia and Watkins drift to. Indeed, often Ramsey will come narrower, and Moreno will provide the width. Watkins has been in excellent goalscoring form and will fancy his chances against Lindelof and De Gea.

However, as stated, Villa must not be too cavalier. They must avoid falling into the trap of complacently believing in their hype and giving United chances on the counter. Their fluid formation and the ability of the ‘wingers’ to act as attacking midfielders can confuse United, however.

Our Prediction

This game is a difficult one to predict. Villa are flying right now, and the only game in this good sequence they’ve had where they have looked a little leggy was Brentford away. Even against Fulham in midweek, the 1-0 result flattered the Londoners. There are reasons to feel confident for both teams. United haven’t lost in 34 of their previous 38 games against Villa (all competitions), and the last time Villa did the double over them in a season was in 1954.

Alternatively, Villa have won six of their previous seven league games, keeping five clean sheets. They have the away goals stat we alluded to above. Furthermore, Villa, alongside Man City, are on the league’s longest active unbeaten streak (ten). Villa have also win 13 of Emery’s first twenty league games.

We know that United are a much better side at Old Trafford than they are away. They have only conceded eight goals there in the league this season and have a terrific record. However, Villa can get something here. Don’t get us wrong; much will come down to who performs on the day. You can say this about any game, but any of the three outcomes is highly possible.

Given that United are tired recently, have a thin squad and had a game on Thursday, Villa might finish the game stronger if it is still tight in the second half. Hence, in a game in which we are uncertain what will happen, we will split the difference and call it a high-scoring draw. Both teams could potentially produce an entertaining match which we shouldn’t miss. This game could be a cracker.

Man Utd 2-2 Aston Villa

Man Utd vs Aston Villa Betting Tip – Draw Odds:


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