Brentford vs Southampton Prediction
Saturday 4th February 2023
GTech Community Stadium
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, high-flying Brentford host bottom-dwelling Southampton. Southampton won their last Premier League away match, but can they earn a positive result here? Find out with our Brentford vs Southampton prediction.
Brentford vs Southampton Prediction Match Overview
As we’ve alluded to plenty of times of late, Brentford really are in the midst of an excellent campaign following something of a wobble previously. The Londoners have lost just once during their last 10 matches, and are producing displays with a defensive solidity that was perhaps absent previously. Having lost only one match all season at home, we expect that Brentford will be full of confidence in facing a Southampton side who are currently bottom of the league and perhaps one of the favourites to go down. Last time out, Brentford were slightly disappointing in their 0-0 draw away to Leeds, perhaps more so with the performance than the result. Failing to register a shot on target, Thomas Frank’s men will perhaps be grateful that their inability to create chances wasn’t punished further.
Southampton for their part were brought down to Earth last time out at home to Aston Villa. The Saints were going into that clash on the back of three straight victories under new manager Nathan Jones, including a highly impressive EFL Cup victory at home to Manchester City. Following a disallowed goal from James Ward-Prowse, Villa took all three points late on to leave Southampton level with points on Everton, two points adrift at the bottom of the table. Despite their highly publicised problems on the pitch and poor results throughout the season, it should be noted that Southampton are actually only three points behind 14th-placed Leicester City, as the Premier League has been tight at the bottom of the table for much of the season. Therefore, potentially it could only require a couple of good results here and there for the Saints to rectify their situation and pull themselves from danger.
Brentford vs Southampton Team News
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play: Baptiste
Will Not Play: Jansson, Onyeka
Might Not Play: Djenepo, McCarthy
Will Not Play: Larios, Livramento, Walker-Peters
Brentford vs Southampton Predicted Lineups
Brentford (3-3-2-2): Raya; Mee, Pinnock, Ajer; Henry, Norgaard, Roerslev; Jensen, Janelt; Toney, Mbeumo
Southampton (3-4-1-2): Bazunu; Salisu, Caleta-Car, Lyanco; Perraud, Lavia, Diallo, Elyounoussi; Adams, Orsic
Brentford vs Southampton Prediction Analysis
Brentford Pressure vs Southampton’s Inability to Retain Possession
Although we seem to make this point every week, this time around it surely stands to reason that Brentford’s pressing forwards, particularly Toney and Mbeumo, will be licking their lips at the prospect of harrying a shaky Southampton side in their own half. Despite often having less of the ball than their opponents, Southampton are one of the Premier League’s most dispossessed sides and they’re up against a team of pressing and transition specialists. Southampton will likely need to play more directly in order to beat Brentford’s press, either to the flanks or directly to the likes of Adams and Orsic with Ward-Prowse in support in a more advanced role.
Southampton lead the league in last-man tackles, with 5 compared with Leicester and Nottingham Forest in joint second. What does this mean for a match like this? Well, this can be interpreted as Southampton having something of a vulnerability to situations that create these 2 vs 1, 3 vs 2 situations in which last-ditch tackles are a necessity, and given that Brentford prefer to transition rapidly and specifically seek to create these situations, Southampton could be in for a long afternoon even if the possession stats are in their favour.
The Battle for Wide Supremacy
We feel that the performances from the wide players here for both sides will be extra important, but that also includes both sets of strikers. Both sides will likely be set up with three central defenders and three central midfielders, meaning that the middle of the park will be incredibly congested with space likely to be available in the wide areas, periodically at least. We expect Mbeumo and Toney for Brentford, Orsic and Adams for Southampton to be running the channels perhaps more often than they normally would in a bid to stretch the play and provide opportunities for both overlaps and underlaps for their wingbacks and advancing midfielders. It’s vitally important for both sides when facing such obvious avenues of attacks that two of their three central defenders operate as wider centre-backs, with Norgaard for Brentford and Diallo for Southampton tasked with providing additional protection as the game becomes stretched.
Beat the Bookmaker Brentford vs Southampton Prediction
Southampton will be set up with a plethora of central players similar to Brentford, and it will be difficult for either side to win the midfield battle. Instead, we feel that Brentford’s pressing forwards will punish Southampton’s attempts to play out from the back, and they will be adept at stretching the play in wide areas as Southampton’s wing-backs try to play high up the pitch. Southampton will likely have their moments too, they have improved somewhat under new manager Nathan Jones and are showing adaptability and resilience at times that we certainly didn’t see earlier in the season, but we think that Brentford will emerge with the three points.
Brentford 2-1 Southampton
Beat the Bookmaker Brentford vs Southampton Prediction – Brentford Odds:
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