Bournemouth vs Brighton – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Tuesday 4th April 2023
As part of our midweek Premier League predictions, we take a look at Brighton’s visit to Bournemouth. Despite their lowly league position, Bournemouth have lost 1 of 5 PL home games. Can they get a result? Read on with our Bournemouth vs Brighton prediction.
Bournemouth vs Brighton Match Preview
Following the weekend’s Premier League action, Bournemouth host Brighton at the Vitality Stadium. The Cherries earned a vital 2-1 victory over Fulham following a poor first-half performance in which they were clearly second-best to the west London side. To their immense credit, O’Neil’s men were able to claw back the deficit within five minutes of the restart through a superb Tavernier strike and proceeded to dominate the second half – eventually conjuring up a scrappy winning goal through Dominic Solanke 10 minutes from time.
With Leeds United, Leicester City and Southampton all losing their matches at the weekend, Bournemouth have improved their chances of survival. While it’s just one game, three points are often hard to come by at the foot of the table. Though their away form remains hugely disappointing, Bournemouth have now lost just one of their last five home matches and have defeated Liverpool while also earning a point at home to high-flying Newcastle United. If we take the last 10 Premier League matches in isolation, Bournemouth are in 14th position with a respectable 11 points and three victories.
The visitors were involved in a strong candidate for game of the season against Brentford, who are also pushing for a place in European football next season. Though Brighton were imposing and dominant in possession and overall chances created, partially this was to do with the dynamic of the game. Brentford went ahead three times, and each time Brighton were able to reel them in but struggled to do so for the third time for the majority of the second half until they were awarded a 90th-minute penalty, which Mac Allister duly converted.
With Liverpool, Fulham and Chelsea each losing, perhaps it could be said there was little harm done, although Aston Villa are mounting a strong push towards the European places with four wins from their last five Premier League matches. While Brighton are enjoying an excellent season, they have won just two of their last six matches and it’s unlikely that such form would be enough to sustain a push for European football if the likes of Liverpool or Chelsea can put together the kind of run that the talent at their disposal warrants. This makes this match crucial for both teams and it’s likely to be keenly contested.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Fredericks, Stanislas
Might Not Play: Ferguson
Will Not Play: Lallana, Moder, Sarmiento
Bournemouth vs Brighton Lineups (Predicted)
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1): Neto; Kelly, Senesi, Stephens, Smith; Lerma, Rothwell; Ouattara, Tavernier, Billing; Solanke
Brighton (4-2-3-1): Steele; Estupinan, Dunk, Colwill, Veltman; Caicedo, Gross; Mitoma, March, Mac Allister; Ferguson
Bournemouth vs Brighton Analysis
Bournemouth are Difficult to Play at Home Lately
With just one defeat in their last five home Premier League matches Bournemouth are finding their feet at home at just the right time. In that one defeat, 4-1 at the hands of Manchester City, Bournemouth certainly had their moments and were somewhat unlucky to lose by a three-goal margin. O’Neil’s men came out ahead on the xG stat against both Newcastle and Fulham, and they won’t be intimidated against a Brighton side that play excellent football at times but show vulnerability when doing so.
What’s the difference for Bournemouth between now and before the World Cup break? The major difference is they’re able to put together the kind of fluid counter-attacking moves that were absent for much of the season, particularly in the absence of Dominic Solanke who gives them a consistent out ball with his pace and movement. There is more purpose to their attacking play than hopeful balls forward into space as some of the league’s poorer teams are wont to resort to. Brighton, for all of their eye-catching football, could be better served by exercising a degree of caution.
Will Brighton Compromise Their Principles?
It’s all very well to suggest that Brighton could be caught out by a Bournemouth side who have improved their ability to produce real opportunities on the break, but will they adapt? Overall, they have been successful at stemming the tide at the other end – they had conceded 10 goals in five games, but in the 9 matches following those five games, they conceded just seven times. However, they were handed a stark reminder of their previous frailties by a Brentford side who revel in causing those problems to enterprising, attacking sides.
Therefore, looking at the Brentford game, was it a one-off? Is their style of play perfectly suited to Brighton? Or were there warning signs? The Leeds match last month which finished in a 2-2 draw was another example of the risk incurred when playing a more expansive brand of football. This is not to suggest that Brighton should refrain from doing so – they’re almost certainly better off playing like this with the players they have at their disposal – but there’s every chance they could be caught out by a Bournemouth counter.
Bournemouth’s improved home form and counter-attacking cohesion give them a chance in this match. Before the World Cup break, we would have had this fixture down as one that Brighton would be highly likely to win. However, given Brighton’s vulnerability to the counter and Bournemouth’s improvement in that area, we have to give them the respect they are due.
That said, we feel that Brighton are a more inventive team than Fulham, their opponents on the weekend. Fulham were also without both Mitrovic and Willian for that match which hampered their goal threat, which allowed Bournemouth the freedom to push on the second half to clinch the victory. We can envisage Bournemouth getting on the scoresheet here – it’s difficult to make the case for Brighton to keep a clean sheet against counter-attacking specialists – but we also feel that Brighton have enough creativity and firepower to clinch a crucial win.
Bournemouth 1-2 Brighton
Bournemouth vs Brighton Betting Tip – Brighton Odds:
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