Aston Villa vs Fulham – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

Tuesday 25th April 2023
19:45 GMT
Villa Park

As part of our midweek Premier League predictions, we take a look at Fulham’s visit to Villa Park. Aston Villa are third over the last 15 games, level on points with Man Utd. Can they keep it up? Read on with our Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction.

Aston Villa


1-1 (A)


3-0 (H)

Nottingham Forest

2-0 (H)


2-1 (A)


2-0 (A)



2-1 (H)


3-1 (A)

West Ham

1-0 (H)


2-1 (A)


3-0 (H)

Aston Villa vs Fulham Match Preview

Aston Villa come into this game in great shape. As most people will be aware, Unai Emery has done a fantastic job since taking over from Steven Gerrard late last year. Emery’s side are undefeated in the previous nine games, having won seven. Therefore, the turnaround has been dramatic. The team’s most recent match was at the weekend, where they faced Brentford away – Villa dominated the ball and had chances. Still, Brentford did, too and had an xG of 2.97 to Villa’s 2.06. Villa won 19 fouls, though, so Brentford were their usual physical, energetic selves – maybe Villa struggled to cope with the intensity a little bit.

While Villa weren’t at their best this weekend, they are strong at Villa Park. They have won the last four games there, the highlight being the thumping 3-0 victory over Newcastle. With 29 points from 16 games, only six sides have accumulated more home points than Villa – they have been formidable at home for a while now. With 51 points from 32 games, Villa still have a chance of qualifying for Europe. For them to be in this position after a difficult start to the season speaks volumes about what Emery has been able to achieve.

Fulham make the trip north to the Midlands having rallied a little. After a challenging run where they lost four in a row, Marco Silva’s men have bounced back to win the last two games (against Everton and Leeds). With an xG of 1.79 to 1.03, Fulham deserved their narrow win at home against the Yorkshire club at the weekend. It was a tight game, though, and they’ll know a trip to Villa Park is a trickier prospect.

Away from home, Fulham have been good this season. They are seventh in the away table, winning six games and accruing 20 points. This total is only five fewer than they have managed at home. Their good form away from home is likely a result of them being more of a counter-attacking side and having plenty of energy and industry to quieten some away crowds this season. However, they are still without Mitrovic due to his 8-game suspension, which is a blow. With 45 points from 31 games, Fulham are safe in their first season back in the top flight and can try to finish as high as possible.

In October, Fulham won the reverse fixture 3-0, so Villa will be hungry for revenge.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Aston Villa:

Might Not Play: Martinez, Cash

Will Not Play: Kamara, Bailey, Coutinho


Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Kurzawa, Mitrovic

Aston Villa vs Fulham Lineups (Predicted)

Aston Villa (4-2-3-1 /4-4-2): Martinez; Moreno, Mings, Konsa, Young; Dendoncker, Luiz; Ramsey, Buendia, McGinn; Watkins

Fulham (4-2-3-1): Leno; Robinson, Ream, Adarabioyo, Tete; Palhinha, Reed; Willian, Pereira, Wilson; James

Aston Villa vs Fulham Lineup
Fulham vs Aston Villa Lineup

Aston Villa vs Fulham Analysis

Aston Villa Dominating The Ball and The Defence and Midfield

Villa have been playing well recently. Though they are more direct and often enjoy counter-attacking, the onus will be on them to attack Fulham, especially at home. Villa had 58 per cent possession at Brentford at the weekend, which we anticipated as we said they would have somewhat more of the ball but not to an overwhelming degree. Therefore, we expect Villa to dominate proceedings here.

It is unknown if Martinez will start in goal, but if he does, he will be a significant presence. In midfield, Dendoncker and Luiz will again have to be diligent and take care of the ball, preventing Fulham from pressing them and winning it in dangerous positions. They must also cover when the full-backs roam forward. Mings and Konsa must try to play balls down the channels for the forwards to chase. Generally, Villa must be compact and not allow spaces that Fulham can exploit on the counter. If Fulham do get counter-attacking opportunities, the one-on-one abilities of Mings and Konsa could be vital.

Villa In Attack

In attacking areas, Watkins has been sensational in recent months – he will be tasked with getting into the left channel and trying to run Tete and the right-side centre-back ragged, using his dribbling, pace and shooting ability to try to get shots away or link up with his team-mates. Buendia’s creativity and invention will be crucial in the number 10 position, and he will also drift to both sides. McGinn and Ramsay are both hard workers with significant skill out on the wings – their ability to deliver crosses and join the attack will be crucial. Moreno will also be an outlet driving up the flank from left-back.

Villa must generally attack Fulham and try to push them back for most of the game. However, they will also get counter-attacking opportunities too when Fulham overcommit. Traore is an attacking option from the bench.

Fulham Will Likely Sit Deeper

Fulham have averaged 49 per cent possession in the league this season, placing them in 11th place, just behind Villa. Therefore, they are less ball-starved than some teams this season and actually have a good share of the ball sometimes. Indeed, in their win at home to Leeds, the possession was 50-50. They are also 11th for completed passes this term. Hence, Fulham are alright in gaining some territory and taking the game to teams.

Despite this and the fact that there is much of a muchness between them and Villa in possession and passing stats, Villa will likely dominate the ball here, as stated. Villa are in better form and have the home advantage. Therefore, Fulham will probably sit a bit deeper, with the full-backs and Ream and Adarabioyo trying to stay compact with Palhinha and Reed sometimes to form a compressed defensive shape. This system will ensure fewer gaps for Buendia and Watkins to play through. On other occasions – when Fulham are more expansive – the dynamic, lively midfielders will make tackles and try to press the ball. However, generally, we expect a more measured, pragmatic approach leading to counter-attacks.

Fulham in Transition

When Fulham can win the ball, they will start their counter-attacks either from the back or midfield by getting the ball quickly into the feet of Pereira in midfield or the two wingers, Willian and Wilson. These three players are all tricky, and Willian and Wilson have excellent crossing ability, dribbling and a degree of pace. They will look to attack the Villa full-backs, and Wilson can find joy in the space that Moreno vacates when he goes forward. The battle between Young and Willian should be interesting (Cash is highly unlikely to be fit).

While Fulham can control games, we anticipate them being more speedy when they can transition here. Using James up front and asking him to utilise his speed and drift into the channels will be beneficial. His searing pace will be an advantage on turnovers, and the link-up between the front four must be right if Fulham are to score. Vinicius and Decordova-Reid are also potential starters or reinforcements.

Our Prediction

It’s a tricky game to predict. On the one hand, Villa have been sensational recently. While the result at Brentford will feel like two points dropped in some ways, the late equaliser will have buoyed them as the Gtech is a challenging place to go. Fulham have finally started winning again, emerging victorious in their last two. They’ve also won two of their previous six away, and their away record is pretty good this season. They should feel confident that their likely mix of mostly transitional play plus occasional spells of possession in this game could offer some balance and help them get a result.

However, Fulham will lose at Villa Park, in our opinion. Despite a more subdued showing by Villa against Brentford, Fulham at home is, on paper, a gentler test than Brentford away (famous last words). Fulham certainly have a chance in this game and will likely be competitive. However, assuming Martinez is ready in the Villa goal, we believe the home side will have too much – they’ve won the last four at home, so we see this run continuing.

We are unsure if Fulham will score, but we have decided to say they will. However, the result could be more comfortable for Villa than we predict.

Aston Villa 2-1 Fulham

Aston Villa vs Fulham Betting Tip – Aston Villa Odds:


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