West Ham vs Chelsea – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we examine the London derby between West Ham and Chelsea. Chelsea haven’t won away from home since October in all competitions. More of the same? Read on with our West Ham vs Chelsea prediction.

West Ham vs Chelsea Match Preview

West Ham come into the game on a poor run of form, having won only one of their last nine league games, and losing six. They, therefore, have five points from the most recent 27, a very mediocre record. Defeats to Man United, Crystal Palace, Leicester, Arsenal, Brentford, and Wolves have been very damaging. Their solitary win was against fellow strugglers Everton. However, they did attain a draw away at Newcastle in their last game.

The Hammers have scored seven goals and conceded 14 in this period, which constitutes a terrible return. While Moyes’ men had won three in a row at home in October, but since then have only won one of their last four at the London Stadium. They currently sit precariously above the relegation zone in the seventeenth position, with 19 points from 21 games. They have also only scored 18 goals and must improve their output.

Chelsea make the short trip to the London Stadium, knowing their form is appalling. Indeed, the Blues are in thirteenth place in the form table over the last six games, having beaten only Crystal Palace in this period. Back-to-back goalless draws at Anfield and at home to Fulham – as well as only 22 goals scored in 21 games – have done nothing to dispel the theory that Chelsea don’t have any reliable finishers in their squad.

As Chelsea are currently in ninth place with 30 points, the West London side must improve. An imminent crunch Champions League first-leg match with German outfit Borussia Dortmund will not help their nerves. Consequently, Chelsea know they must try to kick-start their season with a win on their travels here.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

West Ham:

Might Not Play: Areola, Kehrer, Scamacca, Cornet

Will Not Play: Zouma

Chelsea:

Might Not Play: Mendy, Kovacic, Mudryk

Will Not Play: W Fofana, Kante, Zakaria, Broja, Pulisic

West Ham vs Chelsea Lineups (Predicted)

West Ham (3-4-3): Fabianski; Ogbonna, Aguerd, Johnson; Emerson, Paqueta, Rice, Coufal; Benrahma, Antonio, Bowen

Chelsea (4-3-3): Arrizabalaga; Cucurella, Badiashile, Silva, James; Fernandez, Mount, Gallagher; Mudryk, Havertz, Ziyech

West Ham vs Chelsea Analysis

Midfield Battle

The midfield is going to be crucial in this match. As the home team, there is some onus on West Ham to try to control proceedings and take the game to their visitors. However, Chelsea have generally had plenty of the ball in their games this season, averaging 58.2 per cent possession in their games. West Ham seem at their best in transitions on the counter, and we don’t see this changing. Therefore, we expect the pattern of play to be one where Chelsea try to retain possession and take control of the game. At the same time, West Ham will be more cagey – though the Hammers will try to press where they can and disrupt the Blues’ rhythm.

When West Ham win the ball, they can break into any spaces Chelsea leave. Fernandez will likely start again after making his debut against Fulham. He will be expected to receive the ball on the half-turn from Badiashile and Thiago Silva and initiate attacks. Indeed, Chelsea will try to keep their team compact, pushing their defenders high to limit the amount of space between the defensive and midfield lines in which West Ham can play. The issue here, of course, is that they may play too high and invite the West Ham pace on the counter.

Fernandez, Gallagher and Mount must play as a midfield three and try to play short passes which can open up West Ham and dictate the play. In these areas between the midfield and defence, Rice and Paqueta must be diligent and try to cover any spaces or gaps which may appear. If Chelsea can get the ball wide to their wingers, the pressure will mount on West Ham, and they may be under the cosh.

Rice and Paqueta are clearly critical – Rice must be his usual combative self. When West Ham get the ball, he must carry it forward and try to release their wingers. Paqueta will press and harry and also be a threat on the break. Overall, then, Chelsea will likely try to break down a well-organised West Ham side, who, for their part, will be looking at counter-attacks as crucial to their success.

Both Teams Have Issues Scoring. How Can They Increase Their Output?

With 18 and 22 goals this season, respectively, it is clear that the hosts and visitors are having real problems with taking chances. Chelsea have taken 242 shots this season, and West Ham 277. Therefore, Chelsea have converted their opportunities a little better. The fact remains that both teams need to score more goals. Chelsea have played Aubameyang as a central striker at points this season. However, his performances were underwhelming, and his relationship with coach Graham Potter appears to have deteriorated. They are now playing Havertz as a false 9.

This situation allows them to control the game better. However, with Sterling, Ziyech and Pulisic not firing, they are not getting goals from wide areas. Their attacking players miss chances when presented with them. There is hope that Mudryk, amongst others, will aid their offensive output, but he must be integrated into the squad. Against West Ham, Gallagher and Mount can be weapons arriving in the box, and Mudryk and Ziyech can be a threat by cutting inside on their strong feet and shooting. Cucurella must support Mudryk down the left (though Chilwell will return soon at left-back).

James being back on the right is excellent news for Chelsea, as his driving runs will give them more threat down that side. Emerson must beware of James’s overlapping runs when he goes past Ziyech. In general, Chelsea’s full-backs, wingers, and box-to-box midfielders must show more potency. The club have had a torrid time with injuries, but now is the time to start improving their cutting edge.

West Ham, as stated, will look to transitions to try to hurt Chelsea. They have had problems scoring goals too, but against their London neighbours, they can try to get the ball to the likes of Bowen, Benrahma, or Fornals and attack the wide areas – either when the Chelsea full-backs are in position or by attacking the spaces on the break that they vacate. Paqueta is a goal threat and took his strike well against Newcastle. Indeed, coach David Moyes was generally pleased with the performance at St James’ Park and has demanded his side attain that standard every week, as he thinks results will invariably follow.

Bowen’s dribbling, trickery, and creativity could be helpful, especially as Cucurella has looked suspect defensively for a while. Antonio will lead the line in Scamacca’s likely absence, and he must be strong and not allow the physical Badiashile to bully him. In a battle between two big men, Antonio must try to come out on top to give his team relief from the Chelsea pressure and offer support to the wingers. How he performs on the day will be important.

Our Prediction

This game is tricky to predict. We have mentioned several times in recent weeks that Chelsea are in poor form, and we have generally gone against them. We say poor – there comes the point in a season where the form is no longer temporary, and we feel Chelsea (and Liverpool) have reached that moment. They have regressed from last season. They will feel a semblance of hope with players returning from injury. However, as we have said before, the team lacks chemistry. It seems thrown together with the erratic signings and behaviour of the owners.

West Ham have been poor this season, too. However, the performances have improved a little in recent games. Last weekend, there was an outstanding effort against Newcastle at St James’ Park. As hosts for this game, they will also feel confident they can do something. Therefore, we predict a draw in this match. It could be another underwhelming performance for Chelsea, and West Ham could get some joy.

West Ham 1-1 Chelsea

West Ham vs Chelsea Betting Tip – Draw Odds: