Leeds vs Brighton – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we examine Brighton’s visit to Elland Road. Leeds have scored once in four matches and now face in-form Brighton – can they get anything here? Read on with our Leeds vs Brighton prediction.

Leeds vs Brighton Match Preview

Relegation-battling Leeds come into their match against Brighton on the back of three Premier League defeats in four games to leave them level on points with 18th-placed Everton. With just one goal in four league games and one in their last three home matches, the goals have dried up at something of an inopportune time for Gracia’s men. Besides a scrappy 1-0 victory over fellow strugglers Southampton, performances have been poor and have been below the standard of the performance against Manchester United at Elland Road and even below those performances towards the tail-end of Jesse Marsch’s tenure.

Last time out, Leeds’ performance away at Chelsea was generally fine, but this was against a Chelsea team that was winless in six and struggling in front of goal. With home advantage, Leeds are more difficult to beat (4 in 12), but are also 16th in the home league table for the season; Brighton for comparison are 5th in the away league table and haven’t lost away from home since losing 3-1 to Manchester City in October. While we’re not suggesting that Leeds wave the white flag and wait for the next game, it’s a daunting fixture for them.

16 points and two games in hand in Brighton’s favour separate the two sides today, and the mood around both clubs could hardly be more contrasting. Brighton have scored 14 more goals and conceded 11 fewer than their West Yorkshire opponents, and as we’ve just alluded to they’ve earned one of the better away records in the league; in fact, having played 11 away games which is a game less than the others around them in the away league table, it’s even more impressive.

Brighton have game(s) in hand over other sides vying for continental qualification, and a win here would see them well-placed to make a real push for Europe in the final third of the season. With Brighton having played 23 league matches, which is the fewest of any team in the Premier League this season with many teams having played 26, there is also the danger of a fixture pile-up for the south coast side, and as such, they’ll be keen to earn as many points as possible while they still have the benefit of a relatively fresh squad.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Leeds:

Might Not Play: Bamford, Cooper, Rodrigo, Sinisterra

Will Not Play: Dallas, Forshaw

Brighton:

Might Not Play: Lamptey

Will Not Play: Lallana, Moder

Leeds vs Brighton Lineups (Predicted)

Leeds (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Firpo, Koch, Wober, Ayling; Adams, McKennie; Gnonto, Harrison, Summerville; Rutter

Brighton (4-2-3-1): Steele; Estupinan, Dunk, Webster, Veltman; Caicedo, Gross; Mitoma, Mac Allister, March; Ferguson

Leeds vs Brighton Analysis

Leeds Don’t Employ a Low Block – Does This Suit Brighton?

While possession doesn’t always correlate with territory, as the speed of the team’s buildup play will also influence the possession stats, Leeds are 8th in the possession table in the Premier League this season. While, generally speaking, positive football and taking care of the ball are traits to be admired, in Leeds’ case they can be too open for their own good as, with all due respect to their playing squad, they don’t have the defensive talent available to the other more progressive sides in the league.

What this means is that surely Brighton will be afforded the room to attack quickly and directly into vacated space which is often where they are at their most dangerous. It’s not that Brighton can’t maintain possession – they’re second only to Manchester City in that metric, it’s that they often struggle to break down teams who employ a lower line of engagement and choose to cede territory. The recent 1-0 defeat against Fulham, the 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace and the late winner against Bournemouth in the 87th-minute highlight Brighton’s problems playing against such a style. Thankfully for them, it’s doubtful that Leeds will employ it.

Can Leeds Gain the Upper Hand in Midfield and Break?

What Leeds have in their favour is a potentially strong partnership between USA internationals Adams and McKennie. With Brighton coming to play and leaving themselves exposed at times, this could play into Leeds’ hands at times. That’s with the obvious caveat that the distribution from that area of the park needs to be much better. Against Chelsea, Leeds were adept at contesting the ball in midfield and turning the ball over, but would often concede possession almost immediately.

Brighton like to play with their full-backs high up the pitch where they’re used for both overlaps and underlapping runs, and therefore if Leeds can win the ball back in front of their back four then they’ve every chance of releasing the likes of Gnonto, Harrison, Summerville and Rutter into space or at least with a chance at running at a defensive unit with favourable numbers. Brighton have improved defensively in this aspect, therefore Leeds will need to be far more accurate and decisive than they’ve been in transition over the course of their last few Premier League matches.

Our Prediction

While we think that Brighton are the superior team and should win against a Leeds side who are struggling for goals at the moment, we don’t think they’ll have it all their own way. Despite the disparity in results and league position, both sides seem primed to hurt the other; Brighton are more dangerous when not facing a low block, and Leeds can attack rapidly (though not always accurately) in transition – Brighton’s approach can render them vulnerable to counters.

We expect that over 90 minutes, Brighton’s superior quality should tell and they’ll create the clearer chances in the end. On that basis, we back them to edge a keenly contested game which might surprise a few people, but away wins in the Premier League aren’t always easy to come by and Leeds themselves have only lost four from 12 despite their poor campaign.

Leeds 1-2 Brighton

Leeds vs Brighton Betting Tip – Brighton Odds: