Spurs vs Brighton – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Brighton’s trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Brighton are 4th in the away PL table for the season – can they build on that impressive record here? Read on with our Spurs vs Brighton prediction.

Spurs vs Brighton Match Preview

Spurs meet Brighton at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this Saturday afternoon. It would be an understatement to say it has been a tumultuous season for Spurs. Ex-coach Antonio Conte’s reign was full of controversial statements and drama off the pitch, and Spurs’ results have been erratic. With draws (and being pegged back) in their recent games against strugglers Everton and Southampton, there is clearly much instability in the Spurs camp, which acting manager Cristian Stellini must try to balance out.

Indeed, while things are far from rosy for the North London side, Spurs are still in the hunt to qualify for the Champions League next season. Despite losing ground recently, they sit in fifth place with 50 points from 29 games (Man Utd in fourth have 53 from 28). Hence, all is not lost, and Champions League money is much required. The reason is that Spurs’ finances could be better (partly because of the new stadium). Their home record is good, having won 10 of 14 in the league (including the previous four, though they have lost the four remaining matches), so they are pretty decent on their own stomping ground.

In contrast, Brighton travel north to London in a harmonious position as a club. The club have progressed brilliantly through the divisions. They are now not merely an established Premier League team but an excellent one too. Coach Roberto De Zerbi deserves enormous credit for evolving from the principles and foundation ex-coach Graham Potter had laid. Brighton deserved their victory midweek against Bournemouth, as they were the better side with 64 per cent possession and 2.98 xG to 2.07.

Away from home, Brighton have been excellent for most of the season. Indeed, they sit in fourth place in the away table, with six wins and 22 points from 14 games. This stat is satisfying, especially as some away games involve long travelling from the South Coast up north. The club are undefeated in 10 of their last 11 league games and still have an FA Cup semi-final against Man Utd later this month. They beat Spurs in this fixture last season, and a repeat would see them go within one point of the London club while still having two games in hand. Hence, things look promising for Brighton.

The reverse fixture in October at the Amex ended 1-0 to Spurs, so Brighton are seeking revenge.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Spurs:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Sessegnon, Davies, Emerson Royal, Bissouma, Bentancur, Moura, Richarlison

Brighton:

Might Not Play: Lamptey

Will Not Play: Lallana, Moder, Sarmiento

Spurs vs Brighton Lineups (Predicted)

Spurs (3-4-3 / 3-4-2-1): Lloris; Lenglet, Dier, Romero; Perisic, Skipp, Hojbjerg, Porro; Son, Kane, Kulusevski

Brighton (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): Steele; Estupinan, Colwill, Dunk, Veltman; Caicedo, Gross; Mitoma, Mac Allister, March; Ferguson

Spurs vs Brighton Analysis

Who Will Control Possession?

The issues mentioned above with Spurs and Conte’s reign have been well documented. Therefore, they must try to put these factors behind them as they are still looking for Champions League qualification. Both Spurs and Brighton have passed the ball a lot this season. Brighton have completed over 13,600 passes, and Spurs 12,625 (in a game more). Furthermore, Brighton have averaged 59 per cent possession, and Spurs are at 51 per cent. These stats signify that, while Spurs keep and pass the ball a fair amount, Brighton are a more heavily possession-based team and better at playing pretty patterns and combinations.

What does this mean for the game’s pattern and flow? Well, we expect Brighton to turn up and take the game to Spurs. Brighton are a smaller club and less established, but they have made such progress and positive strides in recent years. They have a quality manager in De Zerbi, some really talented players and – above all – the manager implements a system which maximises the potential of those players. Therefore, while they won’t be as expansive or dominant as they would be against weaker teams at home, we think Brighton could have more of the ball in this game.

Of course, a situation where Spurs can concede the ball and sit back and counter suits them as they have such pace and threat on transitions. Whether their home crowd will accept being pinned back at times by Brighton is questionable – perhaps Spurs will feel the pressure from their fans and try to take the game to the Seagulls instead. Suppose this happens, and Spurs try to be expansive. In that case, it will allow Brighton more opportunity to activate their own dangerous counter-attack.

As implied, predicting the game’s pattern between two of the league’s better teams and two with playmaking quality is tricky. Brighton are much stronger in the central midfield area for us, given the losses of Bentancur and Bissouma for Spurs. Hence, we envisage Caicedo, Gross and Mac Allister getting the ball on the floor, weaving patterns, and playing around the Spurs press.

How Will The Sides Attack?

If Brighton are the side with more of the ball, they will likely try to play through Spurs and find gaps between the lines. In this case, Steele in goal and Dunk at centre-back are instrumental as they are good at playing out from the back and bypassing the press. They will likely get the ball into Caicedo and Gross in midfield or out to Estupinan and Veltman at full-back. Brighton can then progress up the pitch by playing one or two-touch football to work their way around Spurs cutely. There have been numerous examples of Brighton playing this way this season, and Spurs have much work to do to stop them.

When Brighton do reach the final third, March and particularly Mitoma are pacey, tricky, dangerous players who can get down the line to deliver crosses or come inside to shoot. Mitoma is a box of tricks, and his battle with Porro might be essential in breaking Spurs down. Skipp or Hojbjerg must cover that side to offer more defensive protection and insurance. Estupinan’s overloads make this flank even better for Brighton. At the same time, Mac Allister will link play and try to find space in the middle, while Ferguson or Welbeck link from the centre-forward position and try to find space in the box to attack crosses or receive through balls.

Much is dependent on how Spurs play. Despite what we said earlier, there will be moments when Spurs are trying to break down Brighton, but Brighton are versatile and can play with and without the ball. Spurs must take care of the ball in midfield and keep it under pressure from the Brighton pressing. They can find Son or Kulusevski out wide if they can do that. The two wingers can either come inside to shoot or use their pace and dribbling to go past the full-backs and deliver crosses for Kane to attack.

Kane is critical as he is a brilliant finisher in the box and a playmaker outside it. Spurs probably like having him further forward, but there is no doubt that it adds a further dimension to their game when he drops deep. His playmaking and positioning in the box allied to Perisic and Porro’s raids and crosses from wing-back could be vital in helping Spurs score. Again, their transitional threat cannot be underestimated, given the speed and dribbling of Son, Danjuma and Kulusevski.

Our Prediction

This match could go either way. On the one hand, Spurs have been unstable for so long that predicting their games is an unenviable task. For example, they could just as easily beat Man City as they could lose to Southampton. Therefore, any prediction we make here comes with a caveat that if Spurs have a good day, they can beat any team in the league.

However, we do not trust Spurs to perform well and be consistently good throughout this game. Their issues are well-documented, and they are coming up against real quality operators in Brighton. Brighton will likely be professional and play their usual passing and probing game. While we doubt they will win comfortably, they may do enough to take advantage of the problems in the Spurs camp to attain a slender victory. Again, though, Spurs are a menace on their day, and nobody can overlook that.

Spurs 1-2 Brighton

Spurs vs Brighton Betting Tip – Brighton Odds: