Brighton vs Everton – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Monday 8th May 2023
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we examine Everton’s visit to Brighton. Despite their lowly league position, Everton have only lost 1 in 5 away matches – can they get a result? Free betting tips and more with our Brighton vs Everton prediction.
Brighton vs Everton Preview
Brighton come into this game in good form. Indeed, the Seagulls are playing their third consecutive home league game, having already defeated Wolves 6-0 and Man Utd 1-0. The win over United in midweek was well deserved. United indeed had some chances, but generally, Brighton played through them and around them with some beautiful combination play and controlled the game. After Shaw handballed in the box, the emphatic 99th-minute Mac Allister penalty sent the home crowd into raptures. Brighton have won three of the last four and are well-placed to qualify for Europe.
Indeed, with home games against Southampton and Man City and away games versus Arsenal, Newcastle and Aston Villa to finish the season, Roberto De Zerbi’s side have much work to do. However, if they can attain many points, they still have a decent chance of Champions League qualification and a real opportunity to finish fifth and make the Europa League. There’s no doubt that there are some massive challenges there. Still, having won three of their last four games and not lost at home since February, they’ll be up for the task. They are eight points from Man Utd, but with two games in hand – however, Liverpool are also pushing for fourth.
Everton make the long trip south with severe problems. The Toffees have not won in their last seven Premier League games and need to pick up points. Their draw at Leicester a week ago surprised us, as they created more opportunities than they have in quite some time. Even though they could have been 3-1 down had Maddison not missed a Leicester penalty just before the break, Everton will feel disappointed that they couldn’t win the game after Calvert-Lewin’s penalty sent them ahead. They did manage the point after Iwobi’s controlled half-volley equalised after they had gone behind.
Still, the fact remains that they didn’t win that relegation six-pointer, and now their 69-year run in the top flight of English football is under massive threat. Indeed, with 29 points from 34 games, only Southampton are below Everton in the table. With West Ham defeating Man Utd, it now looks like two from Nottingham Forest, Leeds, Leicester and Sean Dyche’s side to join the Saints in the Championship next season. Everton have the fewest goals scored in the league (27) and struggle to register often. With Man City, Wolves and Bournemouth to round out the season after this game, Everton face a mammoth challenge to remain in the Premier League.
The reverse fixture finished 4-1 to Brighton on a terrible night for Everton at Goodison Park. The Seagulls will be hoping for something similar again.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play: Gross, Ferguson
Will Not Play: Lamptey, Moder, Lallana, Sarmiento, Veltman
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Godfrey, Alli, Coleman, Townsend, Vinagre
Brighton vs Everton Lineups (Predicted)
Brighton (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): Steele; Estupinan, Dunk, Webster, Gross; Gilmour, Caicedo; Mitoma, Mac Allister, March; Undav
Everton (4-5-1 / 4-3-3): Pickford; Mykolenko, Tarkowski, Keane, Patterson; McNeil, Gueye, Onana, Doucoure, Iwobi; Calvert-Lewin
Brighton vs Everton Analysis
Brighton Must Play Their Usual Game
Brighton were fantastic against Man Utd – they played the Manchester club off the park for most of the game. Their lulling in United to try to press them so they could bypass it from deep didn’t always tempt United. However, when it did, Brighton passed around them to devastating effect and were soon attacking at the heart of United’s midfield and defence. Steele was brilliant with his distribution from the back and made a few vital saves too. In this game against Everton, we expect Brighton to play similarly. Playing a low block and counter is probably in Everton’s best interests. However, the Seagulls have it in them to either play around a press or break down Everton when they bear down on them in higher areas.
Caicedo will likely move back into midfield from right-back. However, this depends on Gross being fit again, as Veltman is still injured. Caicedo had a few nervy moments against Rashford as an auxiliary full-back, but generally, he did well. Still, Brighton will want his defensive acumen, pressing, and passing ability back in midfield alongside Gilmour, who was also excellent in tight spaces against United. Gross being fit would be beneficial as he has acclimatised more to the right-back role than Caicedo.
Regardless, Brighton will look to play their pretty patterns in midfield and be mindful of the Everton counter-attack. Caicedo and Gilmour are good at repelling counters, as are Dunk and Webster (Dunk also starts off many moves from defensive positions). Estupinan will be his usual self from left-back – he will get up and down the line and be a massive threat in attack and competent when defending against McNeil or Iwobi.
Mac Allister must connect the team from the number ten position – his intelligence and passing ability will allow Brighton further control of the game. Out wide, Mitoma’s dribbling and trickery will be a massive asset against Patterson, and we expect him to be lively. March is a possibility to start wide right, but Enciso has been a revelation since he came in. If the teenager starts, his dribbling, passing and technical ability could break down Everton. Welbeck or Undav could start up front if Ferguson isn’t fit – whoever is selected must link play and get shots on target. In general, Brighton should control this game.
Everton Will Try To Make It A Battle And Create Chances On The Counter
To put not too fine a point on it, we believe Everton can only get something from this game if they can stop Brighton from playing. Brighton will have the majority of the ball and play, so Everton could press them in midfield and at the back, making life difficult for the Brighton players. Of course, then Brighton could play through them. It seems rudimentary to say, but Everton’s best chance is to be physical, try to bully the Brighton players with tackles and challenges, and ‘drag them down to their level’. That’s a little harsh on Everton, but they’re a much worse team than Brighton and fighting for survival, so they are desperate.
The midfield three of Doucoure, Gueye and Onana always offer ‘bite’ and athleticism. They’ll look to be strong off the ball and make challenges to unsettle the Brighton players. The back four must be compact with the midfield. Furthermore, Patterson and Mykolenko will likely be pinned back often by Brighton’s wide forwards – they’re in for a tough evening.
Keane and Tarkowski must stay alert at all moments at the heart of defence – Brighton have tricky, fleet-footed players who can either play their way through or cross and cutback, so the centre-backs for Everton will likely have to get in lots of blocks and tackles. Pickford will also have to make saves in goal and get the ball forward with his long kicking.
In attacking areas, if Everton can win the ball and break, then McNeil and Iwobi must break from their defensive positions and try to get forward to either take men on and shoot at goal themselves or supply for Calvert-Lewin. Iwobi scored a nice, controlled finish at Leicester. More of that sort of thing and better deliveries for Calvert-Lewin and advancing midfielders could prove profitable. As always, Everton will look to set pieces, too – they’ll find it difficult to create against Brighton, but free kicks and corners could be a way to hurt the Southerners. The squad is threadbare, but Gray can come on to provide something different.
Nothing can be taken for granted in football – it is a high-variance sport, and upsets happen. Both sides need a victory for differing reasons at opposite ends of the table. Everton surprised us with how much they took the game to Leicester at the King Power. It seemed like Dyche’s players had a wake-up call to their desperate predicament and pushed hard to win the game. They didn’t quite manage it, but they’ll look for a similarly spirited away performance at the Amex.
However, we would be surprised if Brighton don’t win relatively comfortably. Brighton have been brilliant all season and play a brand of attacking, penetrative and possession football that is kryptonite for Everton. Everton don’t score enough goals and leave gaps in crucial areas often, which we can see Brighton exploiting. Brighton should create chances here, and all that should stop them from winning is if they are profligate, as they were sometimes against United. We are backing them to win this game, in any case.
Brighton 2-0 Everton
Brighton vs Everton Betting Tip – Brighton Odds:
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