Chelsea vs Southampton – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we examine Chelsea’s home match against Southampton at Stamford Bridge. Rudderless Southampton face a Chelsea side in poor form, but showing signs of improvement. Away win? Read on with our Chelsea vs Southampton prediction.

Chelsea vs Southampton Match Preview

While it’s undoubtedly true that results have been sub-optimal for almost the entirety of Graham Potter’s Chelsea tenure, performances have improved lately and the Blues may perhaps feel that they are about to turn a corner. We certainly don’t mean any disrespect to Southampton, however, it feels like the Saints could be the perfect kind of team for Chelsea to face at this moment in time. Although a 1-1 draw away to West Ham wasn’t a vintage performance, West Ham are now four unbeaten in all competitions and they managed to duplicate that result away to high-flying Newcastle.

Against Dortmund in midweek, Chelsea rued their missed chances and ought to have been comfortably in front before flying winger Adeyemi produced a great bit of skill in rounding the keeper to condemn Chelsea to their fourth defeat in eight games. It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon or a brain scientist to understand that Chelsea’s Premier League woes can be summed up in three words: lack of goals. Averaging almost precisely one goal per game, Chelsea will take heart from their creativity on display against Dortmund but they must start to convert these opportunities or else be condemned to a season of mid-table mediocrity.

Southampton are a mess, to put it kindly. The good news for Saints fans everywhere is that despite their well-publicised issues this season, Southampton are still only four points adrift of 17th-placed Leeds and there’s still nearly half of the Premier League calendar remaining. Somehow contriving to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against lowly yet improving Wolves in what could already be described as a relegation six-pointer led to the sacking of outgoing manager Nathan Jones. We won’t comment upon Jones’ tenure specifically he has already been mercilessly mocked by many media outlets – perhaps it’s time to leave the poor man alone?

Sufficed to say, Southampton must begin to accrue points to ensure their Premier League survival, and their immediate outlook is challenging to say the least. Following the match at Stamford Bridge, Southampton travel to Leeds, who despite their lowly league position always make life difficult for the opposition. Then they host Leicester, who have returned to form in style with comprehensive victories over Aston Villa (4-2) and Spurs (4-1). Throw in an away trip to Old Trafford and a home match against high-flying Brentford and it’s clear that Southampton must endeavour to pick up points wherever and however they can.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Chelsea:

Might Not Play: Chilwell

Will Not Play: Broja, Kante, Mendy, Pulisic, Sterling

Southampton:

Might Not Play: McCarthy, Walker-Peters

Will Not Play: Larios, Livramento

Chelsea vs Southampton Lineups (Predicted)

Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Arrizabalaga; Cucurella, Badiashile, Silva, James; Fernandez, Mount; Mudryk, Joao Felix, Ziyech; Havertz

Southampton (4-2-3-1): Bazunu; Perraud, Salisu, Caleta-Car, Bree; Diallo, Lavia; Elyounoussi, Ward-Prowse, Edozie; Adams

Chelsea vs Southampton Analysis

Chelsea’s Improved Chance Creation

Although we add the massive caveat that Chelsea aren’t doing a stellar job of converting said opportunities, the fact that they’re able to create them in the first place is surely a comforting sign for Potter and his charges. Against a good, if not great, Borussia Dortmund side, they controlled much of the game and had by far the better opportunities to break the deadlock before they were undone by sloppy defending in transition and a wonderful piece of skill from Adeyemi. This was contrary to Chelsea’s improved defensive form of late, and perhaps was a function of the need for them to take greater risks going forward.

It’s unlikely that Chelsea will need to be particularly cautious against this Southampton side, although it would be dangerous to discount the possibility of Southampton scoring of course. We anticipate Chelsea taking a risk here and including Mason Mount to play in and around Joao Felix, Mudryk, Ziyech and Havertz, as they will look to create early and often to put this game to bed. Though it’s not a particularly analytical take, the longer this match drags on at 0-0, the harder the game will become for Chelsea with the crowd on their backs and Southampton believing they can upset the applecart.

Southampton’s New Coach?

In an age where not many people like to admit ignorance, we have to admit that we know very little about Southampton’s caretaker manager Ruben Selles. Appointed as an assistant to Ralph Hassenhuttl in the summer, Selles remained at the club and took charge of one match before the appointment of Nathan Jones – a 1-1 draw with Sheffield Wednesday in the EFL Cup which saw the Saints progress via penalties.

This isn’t meant to be disparaging in the slightest – Selles holds a master’s degree in Sports Science and Psychology, completed his UEFA Pro Licence at just 25 years of age and has over a decade of experience working throughout European football in coaching and assistant roles. What we mean by this is that we don’t really know what to expect tactically from Southampton here, and we don’t know how much Selles will have been able to get across to the players in the short time he has had with them.

Though it’s a well-worn cliche, what we do know is that oftentimes caretaker managers also provide a new manager bounce effect, as players jostle for positions in a new hierarchy to be established if the caretaker becomes permanent or a new manager comes in. While we admit that this isn’t always the case, there’s a possibility that Southampton could benefit from the freedom this situation provides – outgoing manager Nathan Jones was constantly under a microscope and this wouldn’t have gone unnoticed by the playing staff.

Our Prediction

Chelsea need goals and need wins. Doesn’t every team? However, in Chelsea’s case, they’re performing far beneath their lofty expectations and they need to get back on track as soon as possible. While they fluffed their lines against Dortmund and perhaps took one too many risks, we feel that they will attack Southampton from the first whistle and surely they can’t continue to squander one gilt-edged chance after another here?

When faced with this attacking approach, we anticipate that Southampton will have their moments too and we can envisage them scoring. Ultimately however, Southampton have been a poor team all season regardless of the coaching staff, with too many players falling into the category of ‘has potential’ rather than ‘has ability’, for the demanding standards of the Premier League at least. Therefore, we back Chelsea to finally produce in front of goal here, even if we think that Potter’s men ‘clicking’ is perhaps some way off.

Chelsea 3-1 Southampton

Chelsea vs Southampton Betting Tip – Over 2.5 Goals Odds: