Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction

Saturday 31st December 2022
15:00 GMT
St. James’ Park

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3-0 (A)


1-0 (H)


4-1 (A)

Aston Villa

4-0 (H)


2-1 (A)


Manchester City

3-1 (H)


4-3 (A)


4-3 (H)


2-1 (A)


3-2 (H)

Where Can I Watch Newcastle vs Leeds?


Sky Sports (UK, NI, CI, IoM)

Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction Match Overview


The two teams meet for their second Premier League fixtures since the recommencement. Indeed, the game is scheduled for 31 December at St James’ Park, with kick-off at 3 pm. Both teams are missing players, as detailed above. Newcastle were imperious in their first match back, destroying Leicester with three first-half goals. They were two up after eight minutes. This scoreline was thanks to a Chris Wood penalty and a beautiful Miguel Almiron slide-rule finish after he came inside from the right on a mazy dribble and linked up with Bruno Guimaraes. Joelinton added a third, and they professionally saw out the second half. The Toon are flying high (with the caveat of the World Cup break), having won all of their previous six matches, putting them first in the form table. They have also accumulated a reasonably impressive 18 points from 24 at home this season. They enter this game with confidence.

Leeds’ return to the Premier League was unhappy, ending in a 3-1 defeat to Manchester City, which included an Erling Haaland brace. They held out almost the entire first half but, in the second, offered little resistance. Leeds have improved in recent matches and are fourteenth in the form table in the previous six. This slight improvement is down to a home win against Bournemouth and a shock victory at Anfield. Their games have been high scoring, though, and they conceded the most goals of any team over this period with 16. Allied with the fact that Newcastle scored the most with 15, and the Anfield win is their only away success all season, the signs are not good for the Yorkshire club.

Newcastle vs Leeds Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Might Not Play: Wilson (Newcastle); Gray, Sinsiterra, Bamford (Leeds)

Will Not Play: Darlow, Dummett, Krafth, Shelvey, Isak (Newcastle); Dallas (Leeds)

Possible Lineups

Newcastle (4-3-3): Nick Pope; Dan Burn, Fabian Schar, Sven Botman, Kieran Trippier; Sean Longstaff, Joe Willock, Bruno Guimaraes; Joelinton, Chris Wood, Miguel Almiron

Leeds (4-2-3-1): Illan Meslier; Pascal Struijk, Robin Koch, Liam Cooper, Rasmus Kristensen; Tyler Adams, Marc Roca; Wilfried Gnonto, Brenden Aaronson, Crysencio Summerville; Rodrigo

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Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction Analysis

Leeds’ Defensive Problems and Conceding Goals

Again, Leeds have been involved in several high-scoring games recently, and they clearly have huge problems keeping the ball out of their net. Indeed, this season, they have conceded 29 goals in 15 games, at a rate of almost two per game. Only Southampton (30), Nottingham Forest (33), and Bournemouth (34) have conceded more. Therefore, Leeds must deal with this problem quickly, and they will be tested heavily by a Newcastle side which is on fire right now. Newcastle have scored 17 goals in 8 games at home this season, and as stated, are the highest scorers in the division over the last six games. Koch and Cooper will have their work cut out in resisting Newcastle’s creative players. There must be a significant defensive improvement for Leeds. We don’t envision Leeds scoring more than one goal in this game despite scoring 12 in their recent six matches. Newcastle are too good defensively, having only conceded two in their last six games. Therefore, Leeds will likely have to improve on their average of conceding two goals per game if they are to get anything from this match.

Midfield Battle

There will be a crucial midfield battle here, as both teams have good players in the middle of the park. The interesting factor is that Newcastle haven’t tended to dominate the ball in this excellent recent run. Indeed, the possession stats are sometimes even, or Newcastle have been down at 40 per cent in some games. Where they flourish is in their counter-press: they are good at winning the ball back in the middle or high in dangerous positions. Leeds have ranged from dominating the ball to having less of it in their recent matches. However, given how Newcastle play and their being at home, the possession stats are likely to be pretty even in this match. Newcastle will like it this way. Longstaff, Willock, and Guimaraes are all adept at playing short passes and breaking quickly with long and short balls when Newcastle gain possession. Roca and particularly Adams (who is returning from suspension, so he should be relatively fresh) are highly industrious and technical midfielders. They will need to do much work to stop Newcastle’s creative players from finding spaces between the lines. Indeed, Leeds are amongst the league’s best pressers, so something has to give in this match. Leeds’ attacking midfielder (likely Aaronson) will drop deeper sometimes to supply an extra man and more pressure in midfield. This movement could stop Newcastle from finding too much space and numerical supremacy in the centre of the pitch.

Strength in Wide Areas (Particularly Newcastle)

Both teams pose much threat in the wider areas of the park. Newcastle are comfortable interchanging positions, and Joelinton will often swap places with Willock to confuse Leeds and allow Willock to make bursts into the box. As ever, Trippier is a significant outlet at right-back for Newcastle, and his supporting the in-form Almiron up that side is arguably Newcastle’s greatest attacking threat at the moment. Trippier’s crossing ability and Almiron’s pace, trickery, and goalscoring are promising avenues for Newcastle to exploit and enter the box. Wilson might be fit enough to play, but Wood will probably start again up front. In either case, the delivery from out wide is dangerous as both strikers are good in the air and at attacking crosses into the area (also low crosses in Wilson’s case). If Newcastle are struggling to break down Leeds, the introduction of unpredictable maverick Allan Saint-Maximin could unlock doors.

Leeds also have some ability on the sides. Gnonto, Aaronson and Summerville are quick and tricky customers. This line of three will be crucial to Leeds’ hopes of scoring in this match. They are all young and energetic. They will look to interchange, impose themselves on Newcastle’s defence ,and beat players to either shoot themselves or supply Rodrigo. Rodrigo is also lively and sometimes runs the channels to get more involved in the game. Indeed, this is a talented front four. Given these players and Jack Harrison, it is unsurprising that Leeds have been scoring goals recently. They have intensity and creativity in attacking positions. Indeed, the Newcastle back four and Pope in goal will have to be wary of Leeds’ pace and incisiveness on the break. Equally, if striker Patrick Bamford is fit to play some part it will be a huge boost to Leeds.

Beat the Bookmaker Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction


This game will likely be an exciting affair between two fast-paced teams who like to play on the front foot. Leeds have shown enough in recent games to prove they can score a goal in this match, even against a miserly Newcastle side. However, Leeds’ problem all season has been conceding goals. Under Jesse Marsch, there is still some of the hundred miles-per-hour kamikaze play we saw under Marcelo Bielsa. Newcastle may be too clever for this breakneck speed and will possibly be able to score three or four goals. Leeds’s rearguard is porous and always offers the opposition chances due to the team’s all-or-nothing style of play. Leeds are still relatively naive, and with Tripper, Guimaraes, and Almiron in form and other creative players at their disposal, we see Newcastle winning comfortably and continuing their fantastic run.


Newcastle 3-1 Leeds

Beat the Bookmaker Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction – Newcastle to win and BTTS odds:




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