Arsenal vs Leeds – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Leeds’ visit to the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal responded to their defeat to title rivals Man City with 6 straight wins – number 7? Read on with our Arsenal vs Leeds prediction.

Arsenal vs Leeds Match Preview

Following the international break, Arsenal face Leeds this weekend. The Gunners come into the game in excellent form. Indeed, the London club have won their last six league games (with the only blip in any competition being their Europa League penalty shootout exit at the hands of Portuguese club Sporting). They have scored 19 goals and conceded only five in these six games, and they signed off before the break with a very convincing 4-1 with over struggling Crystal Palace. This match included a Saka brace highlighting his importance to the club.

At home, Arsenal have done exceptionally well this season. They sit top of the home table, with 11 wins and 35 points from 14 games. They are undoubtedly turning the Emirates into something of a fortress. They have been beating teams they are expected to conquer there this season and will hope Saturday is no different as they fight for their first Premier League title in 19 seasons. Arsenal have an eight-point lead over Man City with ten games to play (City have 11). Arsenal will hope that City drop points at home to Liverpool in the early kick-off and then they can consequently increase the gap further.

Leeds travel south to London in a mini-resurgence. They have won two of their previous four games, making their prospects of evading relegation look better. Indeed, these victories against fellow strugglers Southampton and Wolves could prove priceless. The win over the latter was a game where Leeds had a three-goal lead after an hour, but Wolves scored two goals in eight minutes and scared them. However, the Elland Road club rallied and eventually finished the game in stoppage time. Wolves had an xG of 2.86 to 1.47, so Leeds were perhaps fortunate to win.

Nevertheless, the win at Molineux was only Leeds’ second victory in 14 games on their travels. They have lost nine of those, so coming to the league leaders possessing the best home record in the division presents a daunting prospect. The reverse fixture ended 1-0 to Arsenal in October. They have beaten Leeds in eight of the last nine encounters in all competitions, so Leeds will likely be delighted if they can escape the Emirates with a point. Leeds would welcome anything as they are fourteenth and just two points above the relegation zone.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Arsenal:

Might Not Play: Saliba, Tierney, Partey

Will Not Play: Elneny, Tomiyasu, Nketiah

Leeds:

Might Not Play: Gnonto, Weber

Will Not Play: Adams, Dallas, Forshaw

Arsenal vs Leeds Lineups (Predicted)

Arsenal (4-3-3): Ramsdale; Zinchenko, Gabriel, Holding, White; Xhaka, Partey, Odegaard; Martinelli, Jesus, Saka

Leeds (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Firpo, Koch, Wober, Ayling; Roca, McKennie; Harrison, Aaronson, Summerville; Bamford

Arsenal vs Leeds Analysis

Arsenal Will Control the Game

It isn’t controversial to state that Arsenal are highly likely to dominate this match regarding possession and shots on goal. Indeed, Arsenal have averaged 60 per cent possession this season compared to 49 per cent for Leeds. They have also completed more than 4,000 more passes. As a title contender playing at home to a relegation candidate, this match is one of those ‘routine’ games where Arsenal are expected to win; it is par for the course. These matches are Arsenal’s bread and butter in their hunt for the trophy. However, the game is not a walkover because Leeds can always be energetic and dangerous.

Arsenal must get the ball into their midfield three – Xhaka, Odegaard and Partey- and look to them to pull the strings. Arsenal are a different animal with Partey in the starting eleven. He offers a level of athleticism and drive that none of their other midfielders do. They will hope he is fit. Equally, Odegaard (as we always say) is a brilliant and technical player adept at finding spaces between the lines and making Arsenal operate efficiently. It is up to him to find the likes of Martinelli, Saka and Trossard out wide and allow them to drive at Firpo and Ayling and work their magic. Their dribbling in tight spaces and ability to come into the box or shoot could be invaluable.

We have backed Jesus to start after a long injury lay-off. His clever movement and link-up play could also be vital to Arsenal in this game and the run-in in general. Overall, Arsenal must try to find ways to test Meslier and make their superior talent levels count.

Leeds Must Use Their Energy And Counter

Even though Arsenal will probably dominate the proceedings, Leeds are no pushover. They had seen some positive results in the weeks before the break. Indeed, their high-energy, chaotic pressing style remains from the Marcelo Bielsa and Jesse Marsch eras and is still mainly being implemented now by new coach Javi Gracia. This style could suit them in this game, as they can sit in a deeper shape and try to press Arsenal in midfield and pounce on any errors. If they can do this reasonably successfully, they could release their wingers against an out-of-shape Arsenal backline.

Unfortunately for Leeds, the spritely Gnonto might be missing. However, they have other talented wingers who can attack spaces Zinchenko or White might leave. Harrison and Summerville are lively characters with pace and good dribbling who can work their way into the box on the break. Aaronson is a clever playmaker who can link up with them. The three will interchange and look to use interplay to hit Arsenal on transitions.

Bamford has had massive injury woes this season. However, assuming he starts in this match, he will look to occupy Gabriel and Holding (or Saliba) and give them no respite with his movement and runs. He will try to make himself available for passes down the sides and crosses into the box. Bamford and the line of three behind him must be clinical if Leeds are to get something here. Leeds must also defend their box well, and McKennie and Roca in midfield will have to get through significant work and be calm and composed under relentless Arsenal pressure to give Leeds any chance.

Our Prediction

Given recent head-to-head results between these teams and Arsenal’s superior talent and home advantage, coach Mikel Arteta will be hoping for a comfortable Saturday afternoon in the likely spring sunshine. However, despite their poor away record, Leeds are a potential banana skin. Arsenal are coming into the game after a two-week international break. There are no guarantees that everyone will slot back into place and their momentum will resume. Allied to this is another factor already mentioned – Leeds are a high-energy and high-pressing team; it suits them to play on the counter-attack. If Arsenal are not careful, they might be caught cold.

However, despite the return from the break and tactical battles inherent in this contest, it makes sense to go for an Arsenal win. They have the better team and players, home advantage, and the crowd behind them. As the uncomfortable last-minute Arsenal victory against Bournemouth proved, football is a high-variance, sometimes unpredictable game – Arsenal expecting to win doesn’t mean that it will be easy and is a foregone conclusion. Leeds will hope to upset them. However, logic should always prevail. We can’t see Leeds getting anything here, especially given how strong Arsenal are at home and how mediocre the Yorkshire club are away.

Arsenal 2-0 Leeds

Arsenal vs Leeds Betting Tip – Arsenal -1 (win by 2 or more) Odds: