West Ham vs Leeds – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Sunday 21st May 2023
13:30 GMT
London Stadium
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Leeds’ trip to West Ham. Leeds need 3 points to put their fate in their own hands on the final day – can they do it? Free betting tips and more with our West Ham vs Leeds prediction.
Premier League Form:
West Ham
Brentford
2-0 (A)
Man Utd
1-0 (H)
Man City
3-0 (A)
Crystal Palace
4-3 (A)
Liverpool
2-1 (H)
Leeds
Newcastle
2-2 (H)
Man City
2-1 (A)
Bournemouth
4-1 (A)
Leicester
1-1 (H)
Fulham
2-1 (A)
West Ham vs Leeds Preview
West Ham come into this penultimate game of the season (and final home game) having experienced one of the best times in their history in midweek. Indeed, a stoppage time Fornals goal made it 3-1 on aggregate against Dutch club AZ Alkmaar in the Conference League semi-final second leg, setting up a showpiece final with Italian club Fiorentina on 7 June. It was a rather drab game, with neither side having many shots on target and both having under 1.0 for xG. However, Alkmaar had 65 per cent possession and did apply some pressure on West Ham. There were also unsavoury scenes between fans and players at the end of the match, which might affect West Ham.
David Moyes’ side have been poor recently in their bread-and-butter realm of the Premier League. They have lost four of their previous five games (to Liverpool, Palace, Man City and Brentford at the weekend). Only a victory at the London Stadium against Man Utd has been positive. In truth, West Ham have had their eye on their European campaign.
The Hammers are virtually safe regardless – they have 37 points, and only two Leeds victories and points gained by Forest or Everton can see them go down. Even if those two clubs did win games, West Ham would have to lose here and to Leicester, and Leeds overturn an eleven-goal swing. It isn’t happening. However, to give Leeds some hope, West Ham have only won seven of 18 league home games this season. Hence, the London Stadium isn’t exactly a fortress.
Leeds travel south in desperate form. Indeed, they’ve only picked up one win in their last seven matches and have conceded at least two (and sometimes plenty more) in six of those seven games. Sam Allardyce’s late appointment in recent weeks has yet to bear fruit, but they did get a draw against high-flying Newcastle last weekend. Having been 2-1 down, the point will be satisfactory but not what they truly desired.
Only Southampton have won fewer games in the league this season than Leeds (Leeds have won seven). Leeds have also conceded a massive 71 goals, an average of almost two per game and the most in the division. Leeds’ defence has been a problem ever since the Marcelo Bielsa days, and they often play too open. Leeds have only won two games away from home this season, which doesn’t bode well. With 31 points from 36 games and a match against Spurs at Elland Road to finish, Leeds must try to win both these matches to chase down Everton (32 points) and Forest (34 points), or they’ll go down.
Team News
Injuries and Suspensions
West Ham:
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Scamacca
Leeds:
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Firpo, Adams, Cooper, Dallas, Roca, Sinisterra
West Ham vs Leeds Lineups (Predicted)
West Ham (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): Fabianski; Emerson, Ogbonna, Aguerd, Johnson; Rice, Downes; Fornals, Paqueta, Bowen; Ings
Leeds (4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1): Robles; Struijk, Wober, Kristensen, Ayling; Koch, McKennie, Forshaw; Harrison, Bamford, Rodrigo
West Ham vs Leeds Analysis
How Will West Ham’s Exertions In The Europa Conference League Affect Them?
West Ham’s progression past AZ Alkmaar and into the final of UEFA’s tertiary club competition sees them in a buoyant mood. However, what remains to be seen is what Moyes will do with his squad. Will he continue to play the side he has in mind for the final, or will he rest players and even give squad players a chance to impress before that final on 7 June? West Ham have two games left, and as stated above, it would take a miracle for them to be relegated. Needing just a point here against Leeds, we believe that Moyes will rest some players after a gruelling midweek European game.
Therefore, more fringe/second-choice players like Emerson, Johnson, Downes and Ings may come into the lineup. The onus will be on West Ham to attack Leeds as the home team. They must be strong defensively and wary of potential Leeds counter-attacks, with Ogbonna, Rice and Aguerd making blocks and interceptions when vulnerable and one-on-one. Rice will also control the game if he can, while Bowen, Fornals and Benrahma are tricky, dangerous options out wide who can pass or cut in and shoot.
If Ings gets a start up front, he will be keen to impress. As Antonio’s backup, he must try to make runs with his clever movement and take any chances provided for him. Set pieces will also be a crucial source of success for West Ham.
Leeds Must Play With High Energy And On Transition
Allow us to be abundantly clear: Leeds are in massive trouble, and they likely must win this game. Therefore, they will probably play a high-pressing counter-attacking style where they can try to win the ball in midfield areas and quickly and directly attack with the dribbling and pace of Harrison, Rodrigo, Summerville and Gnonto. Most sides in the Premier League are good on the counter-attack, and it is sometimes an excellent tactic for winning games (soak up pressure and attack the vacated space). While it sounds ‘basic’, Leeds can employ this way of playing to try to win this game.
Hence, the midfield three (likely Koch, McKennie and Forshaw, as Roca and Adams are out) must relentlessly press the West Ham midfield and defence. The wingers and Bamford up front must follow suit, and it will be vital that they win the ball back quickly and can attack in transition when West Ham’s shape is disrupted.
Defensively, Leeds must concentrate heavily. West Ham will look to find little spaces they can exploit, but Leeds must congest this space and gets blocks and tackles in. Robles will likely have to play well in goal. In attack, Bamford has had a very injury-disrupted season but will look to take any chances that come his way.
We are not saying that this game will be entirely one-way traffic – West Ham have a solid counter-attacking dimension too, and there will be periods where the match is more end-to-end than others. However, situations where West Ham apply pressure is when Leeds have the best chance to activate their counter.
Our Prediction
West Ham’s midweek adventure makes this a challenging game to predict. On the one hand, they may be celebrating and in a party mood. Alternatively, they may experience a sobering comedown after such a big game. It’s improbable that West Ham will be relegated now. However, they must be professional and try to win this game regardless. They will try to apply the pressure on Leeds and look for openings to create chances.
Leeds, on the other hand, are in dire straits. They know they must win either this game or the last game against Spurs (or both) to have any chance of staying in the division. The signs do not look good, given that Leeds have conceded at least two goals in six of their last seven league games. There’s also the fact that West Ham have scored at least two in their previous six games against Leeds (all competitions).
Allardyce can possibly tighten Leeds up in these last two games. However, we are backing West Ham to confirm their Premier League status for next season and pile more misery on Leeds.
West Ham 2-1 Leeds
West Ham vs Leeds Betting Tip – West Ham Odds:
2.50
Everygame (USA and Canada) – Exclusive Sign-Up Bonuses
Everygame was the first online sportsbook to hit the world wide web and paved the way for many of the online sportsbooks we see online today. Thousands of daily live betting options. Up to $750 Sign-Up Bonus!