Leeds vs Newcastle – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Saturday 13th May 2023
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Newcastle’s visit to Leeds. Leeds have 3 games left to survive – Newcastle have lost just 3 away games all season. Free betting tips and more with our Leeds vs Newcastle prediction.
Leeds vs Newcastle Preview
Leeds come into this home game in desperate form. Indeed, the Elland Road club have not won in their last six games, sitting bottom of the form table over that period with only one point. In their previous match against Man City, City, of course, had 81 per cent possession and higher shots on target and xG. However, Leeds were playing their first game under new coach Sam Allardyce. Allardyce is a veteran manager who is well-versed in helping teams beat the drop. He is a defensive manager and has (sometimes unfairly) been described as a footballing dinosaur. His appointment could prove to be what Leeds needed, though, as they were declining quickly under Javi Gracia.
It may, however, be too late for Allardyce to save Leeds from the drop. They currently sit in 19th position, with 30 points from 35 games and a dreadful -25 goal difference. Hence, they have much work to do to stay in the top flight. A win in this match would see them move out of the relegation zone, perhaps only temporarily. With nine points available, you’d imagine Leeds will have to win at least two of their remaining three games. With West Ham away and Spurs at home to round off the season, the odds are against them.
Newcastle travel south to Yorkshire in good form but have experienced a setback. Indeed, the defeat at home to Arsenal on Sunday was only their second in the previous ten games, having won the other eight. We predicted Newcastle to win, and they came out of the blocks quickly. However, Arsenal settled, and a long-range left-footed strike by Odegaard and an own goal by Schar gave the Gunners the points.
Coach Eddie Howe will not be too despondent, as he will know that it was arguably a bad day at the office, and their form has generally been good. Indeed, on the road, Newcastle have taken 30 points from 17 games – only the top two (Man City and Arsenal) have more on their travels. Sitting in third, two points ahead of Man Utd and three ahead of Liverpool (though with a game in hand over the latter), Newcastle are still well-positioned to claim a first Champions League spot in two decades. However, it will not be easy with three blue-kitted teams (Brighton, Leicester and Chelsea) to round out the season.
Nine of Leeds’ last ten games have seen a minimum of three goals scored, so we might expect goals, though the reverse fixture on New Year’s Eve was 0-0.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Cooper, Dallas, Adams, Sinisterra
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Krafth, S Longstaff, M Longstaff
Leeds vs Newcastle Lineups (Predicted)
Leeds (4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1): Robles; Firpo, Wober, Koch, Ayling; Roca, McKennie, Forshaw; Harrison, Bamford, Gnonto
Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Burn, Botman, Schar, Trippier; Guimaraes, Willock, Joelinton; Isak, Wilson, Murphy
Leeds vs Newcastle Analysis
Leeds Will Likely Play On The Counter
Leeds don’t tend to have too much possession in games. They have averaged 47 per cent this season, and under Allardyce, that will likely be lower. The reason is that Allardyce is a safety-first manager and knows he has much work to do to keep Leeds in the division. Leeds will look to be defensively drilled and solid and stop leaking as many goals as they did under Javi Gracia. ‘Only’ conceding two goals at the Etihad against Manchester City was a start. However, they must try to be more organised.
Therefore, we anticipate Roca, McKennie and Forshaw being tigerish in midfield and doing much pressing and defensive work to protect the back four. They will also look to pass the ball around when they can. The centre-backs could be vulnerable, and they will need the utmost protection. Leeds must keep a compact shape with little space between the lines – otherwise, Newcastle could find gaps to play in and punish them.
When the ball goes into attacking areas, it will be up to players such as Harrison, Gnonto and Summerville to create attacking situations. They are all fast and talented dribblers and will look to take on the Newcastle full-backs and come inside to either shoot or cross. Gnonto, in particular, is a gifted young player who offers that maverick quality that could create something from nothing for Leeds. Generally, they will look to play direct and fast on the counter, getting in shots and cutbacks or crosses for Bamford to attack. Set pieces might also be a way for them to try to score, as Allarydace is famed for his organisation at them (and he might also tighten them up on defensive set plays).
Newcastle Will Take The Game To Leeds; They Are Fighting For Top Four
Newcastle still have a real shot at making the top four and have been averaging more possession as the season has progressed. Therefore, they will take the game to Leeds and try their best to put the home side under intense pressure early on. The Magpies will be eager to make amends for the setback against Arsenal. We see Joelinton, Willock and Guimaraes (key to Newcastle’s success this season) pressing high in midfield and getting on the ball to try to make passes and play their way through Leeds. The midfield three could be crucial in Newcastle’s potential success here.
Defensively, Newcastle must prevent Leeds from getting behind them on the counter. Newcastle will likely play a high line, with compact spaces between the lines. However, when Newcastle are pinning Leeds back, there is the risk that Leeds will win the ball in one of their two deeper thirds and then release the ball quickly to break with the pace of Harrison and Gnonto. Schar, Burn and Botman must be mindful of this and not allow the pacey wingers and midfield players to beat them in one-on-one duels on the counter. Pope’s kicking and ability to make saves and collect crosses will also be helpful.
In attacking areas, Newcastle have plenty of ability. They have Murphy, Willock, Gordon, Saint-Maximin and Alimiron, all tricky and offensive options on the flanks. These players can dribble inside and outside and either deliver crosses or shoot. Their pace and threat will be vital, as will Trippier’s movement into forward areas from right-back, and his crossing and passing.
Newcastle’s two best attackers right now are the forwards – Isak and Wilson. Howe doesn’t always start the two together, but he did against Arsenal, and we think he will again. They link up well together – Wilson is physically strong and can finish, whereas Isak is a complete forward who can also play wide – his dribbling, hold-up, link-up, passing, and pace are all essential ingredients if Newcastle are to finish in the top four.
This match is a challenging one to call. People might expect Newcastle to win easily simply because of how bad Leeds have been in recent weeks and months. This situation is also joined by Newcastle gaining momentum recently and scoring many goals (even against Arsenal, they were unlucky in spells). However, Leeds showed signs against City that Allardyce could get them organised. He might not keep them up, but they can definitely concede fewer goals.
Therefore, this might be a trickier game for Newcastle than it would have been a few weeks ago. Elland Road will likely be bouncing. It is not an easy place to go and get a result under a defensive manager like Allardyce. Newcastle might hammer Leeds and make us eat our words, but we will predict a narrow away win here. Leeds should have more fight and spirit about them – they certainly need it, or the Magpies will destroy them.
Leeds 1-2 Newcastle
Leeds vs Newcastle Betting Tip – Newcastle Odds:
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