Man City vs Newcastle – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Saturday 4th March 2023
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we took a look at Newcastle’s visit to the Etihad Stadium. With 3 points in 4 PL matches, Newcastle are fading fast – can they keep up their CL challenge? Read on with our Man City vs Newcastle prediction.
Man City vs Newcastle Match Preview
Man City enter this game having won their previous two games in all competitions. Their victory away at Bristol City on Tuesday in the FA Cup was comprehensive, finishing 3-0. They are now in the quarter-finals. In other good news, City looked more like their old selves in a 4-1 thrashing of Bournemouth at the Vitality last weekend. Yes, they were playing against arguably the league’s weakest team, but goals by Alvarez (2), Foden and Haaland asserted their superiority. Dominating games will be vital as they chase down Arsenal.
At home, City have been excellent this season. They have won ten of their twelve games and scored 41 goals, meaning they have more points and many more goals than anyone else in the league when hosting. They have won five of their last seven league games overall, with the blips being a loss at Spurs and a 1-1 draw away at Forest when they missed chances galore. Still in the FA Cup and the Champions League, coach Pep Guardiola hopes his team will reach their optimal level as the business end of the season approaches. They can start by making a statement here.
Newcastle travel to Manchester with the frustrations of Sunday’s Carabao Cup Final loss against Man Utd fresh in their minds. They dominated possession but ultimately lacked any cutting edge and surrendered meekly on the day. It remains to be seen how they will bounce back from this disappointment, but in 2023 they have slowed down compared to their excellent escapades in 2022. Indeed, the Magpies have only won one of their previous seven fixtures in the league. This run stretches back to the final day of last year. Five matches were draws, but it puts them in mid-table in form across this period.
Clearly, Newcastle draw far too many games (11 of 23), and their goalscoring has dried up too. Indeed, having scored 32 in their first 16 games, they have only scored three in the previous seven. The loss at home to Liverpool two weeks ago was frustrating, too. Newcastle have also lost their last seven games at the Etihad. Even though their league games recently have been low-scoring (fewer than three goals in each of their last seven), Newcastle have conceded at least two against City in their previous eight games against them. The Toon must try to get something out of this game and retrieve some momentum, or their hopes of qualifying for the Champions League may eventually fizzle out.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play: Laporte, Walker, Stones
Will Not Play:
Might Not Play: Guimaraes
Will Not Play: Krafth, M Longstaff, Manquillo
Man City vs Newcastle Lineups (Predicted)
Man City (3-2-4-1: Ederson; Ake, Dias, Walker, Lewis; Gundogan, Rodri; Grealish, De Bruyne, Silva, Foden; Haaland
Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Burn, Schar, Botman, Trippier; S Longstaff, Joelinton, Guimaraes; Saint-Maximin, Isak, Almiron
Man City vs Newcastle Analysis
It Clicked for City Against Bournemouth, But This Match Might be Tougher
City’s game against Bournemouth was impressive in its attacking intent and highlighted that they are likely starting to click again. However, Newcastle are a much better team than Bournemouth and – even at home – represent a stiffer test. City have generally had the Geordies’ number in recent years. However, with the Saudi takeover, Newcastle are now a different animal. Still, Newcastle are experiencing a difficult moment, and City will look to compound their problems.
Guardiola has been experimenting with a new type of system recently – a 3-2-4-1 shape. This shape is somewhat unconventional, but far be it from us to question the Spaniard’s tactical innovations. We also generally find predicting his lineups from game to game a thankless task. However, if Guardiola does set up in this style, it is clear that he will attempt to gain even more control in the middle of the park. Rodri, Gundogan, Silva, and De Bruyne – City’s possession masters – will likely play. When defending, the system can become more of a 4-2-3-1 or even 5-4-1, with the wingers becoming auxiliary full-backs.
The point is that this shape is intended to give City more control and simultaneously increase their creative threat. The game’s pattern will likely be City probing and having the majority of possession, while Newcastle play in a low block and counter, only pressing when they deem it safe (particularly if Guimares is out and they are weakened in midfield). Newcastle are built on a solid defence. They will seek to be organised and deny City space and one-on-one opportunities, and disrput their rhythm through slowing the game down. In this way, the ability of Grealish, Foden, Alvarez, Mahrez, Silva, or De Bruyne to pass, cross or dribble incisively will be more limited. Playing more defensively is risky, though, as it invites pressure. One moment of inspiration could see Newcastle concede.
Newcastle’s Disappointment After the Carabao Cup Final Loss, And How They Might Play
Newcastle had such high hopes of ending their almost six-decades-long trophy drought on Sunday but simply could not. Hence, there might be a hangover here as they visit Manchester. However, if there is one fixture that can get the juices flowing again, it is away to City. Therefore, Newcastle must try to put their regrets behind them and be professional in getting on with their season. They are still in the hunt for a Champions League place. They cannot allow their entire season to collapse, as is a possibility.
We have already stated that Newcastle will likely play defensively and try to hit City on transitions when City commit and expose themselves. This tactic could pay dividends, but it does limit the amount of possession and the number of occasions Newcastle can get forward. While we think Alimron and Saint-Maximin will start wide and use their ball-carrying and dribbling abilities to give Newcastle some respite and a creative outlet, Gordon could alternatively come into the team to provide them with pace. Tripper will be a threat, as always, from right-back, and he must link up well with the right-winger and get crosses in the box. His set pieces could have been better recently, so he must improve his delivery, too.
Coach Eddie Howe may tinker or play the same side after the weekend’s defeat – either is possible. Up front, Isak or Wilson could start. The former looks lively right now, while the latter has been sluggish. We, therefore, think Isak will start, and he must be diligent in his hold-up play and take any chances that come his way. One-on-one opportunities against Ederson will likely be at a premium, so Newcastle must be clinical if they are to leave with anything.
This game is trickier to predict than in previous seasons, as there are several changed factors and some unknowns. For example, we know that City have looked ropier in their style this season than they have in previous years. We also know that Newcastle have generally improved in the last fifteen months approximately (though the last six weeks or so have seen degraded performances). However, we are still uncertain as to how City will set up both in shape and personnel (we could write this every time City play in fairness). We also need to see what Newcastle’s response to their Cup Final loss will be. There is also the fact this game takes place in the dreaded, unpredictable 12.30 Saturday slot.
Newcastle are a good team with some talented players, but they have been struggling for a while now, particularly in front of goal. They have been creating chances at times but not taking them, and their constant drawing of games will be grinding them down. We also believe there might be a hangover from Sunday – they might respond negatively. City are a team that tends to be strong at the business end of the season, which is what we are approaching. We will predict a City win with them being at home and Newcastle’s current issues. We did consider backing them to win by two but will be more conservative and call a win by the odd goal.
Man City 2-1 Newcastle
Man City vs Newcastle Betting Tip – Over 2.5 Goals Odds:
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