Brighton vs Man City – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Wednesday 24th May 2023
20:00 GMT
AMEX Stadium
As part of our midweek Premier League predictions, we take a look at Man City’s trip to Brighton. With City likely to heavily rotate their squad, can Brighton capitalise? Free betting tips and more with our Brighton vs Man City prediction.
Premier League Form:
Brighton
Southampton
3-1 (H)
Newcastle
4-1 (A)
Arsenal
3-0 (A)
Everton
5-1 (H)
Man Utd
1-0 (H)
Man City
Chelsea
1-0 (H)
Everton
3-0 (A)
West Ham
3-0 (H)
Fulham
2-1 (H)
Arsenal
4-1 (H)
Brighton vs Man City Preview
Brighton come into this final home game of the season (against the newly crowned champions) in pretty good form. The Seagulls have won four of their previous six league games, with the surprise hammerings against Everton and Newcastle the only blemishes. Indeed, in their last match at the weekend, they beat already-relegated Southampton 3-1. Two right-foot strikes in the box by Ferguson (the first of which really should have been saved) and an excellent left-foot strike by Gross won them the points. However, Elyounoussi scored a header from a Ward-Prowse corner for Southampton. Walcott had a goal disallowed by VAR, too, at 2-1.
At home, Roberto De Zerbi’s charges have been decent. They have won ten of their 18 games at the Amex, collecting 33 points. With 20 goals conceded, only six sides have conceded fewer goals at home. They’ll want to sign off with a victory here. In sixth place, they’re virtually guaranteed a Europa League group stage place – they’d have to lose by a margin of 17 goals here and in the final game at Villa (their rivals for the position). Hence, the last two games are all about confirmation. They can even still finish above Liverpool.
Man City make the trip south in a party mood. They were crowned champions before a ball was kicked on Sunday against Chelsea due to Arsenal’s loss away to Forest on Saturday. Arsenal’s collapse (two wins in eight games), allied to a twelve-game winning streak from City, confirmed the Manchester club as champions with three games to spare, despite being second for most of the season. Against Chelsea, Pep Guardiola mostly played his reserves, and they won thanks to a right-foot finish by Alvarez after being set up by Palmer.
Of course, City are chasing a historic treble which would equal their bitter rivals Man Utd’s accomplishment from 1999. The first leg of that is already complete. A win here or against Brentford on the final day would take them past 90 points, a tally they have been accumulating regularly under Pep – raising the bar. They’ll fancy their chances massively against Man Utd in the FA Cup Final and Internazionale in the Champions League Final. Guardiola must try to strike a balance between resting his first-team players in the last two league games and not letting them get too out of sync.
Man City have won 11 of their last 12 matches against Brighton in all competitions. Hence, they will feel confident here.
Team News
Injuries and Suspensions
Brighton:
Might Not Play: Sanchez, Webster
Will Not Play: Lallana, Moder, March, Lamptey, Sarmiento
Man City:
Might Not Play: Ake
Will Not Play:
Brighton vs Man City Lineups (Predicted)
Brighton (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): Steele; Estupinan, Colwill, Dunk, Veltman; Caicedo, Gross; Mitoma, Mac Allister, Enciso; Ferguson
Man City (4-2-3-1 / 3-2-4-1): Ortega; Gomez, Laporte, Akanji, Lewis; Phillips, Stones; Palmer, Foden, Mahrez; Alvarez
Brighton vs Man City Analysis
Brighton Have More Or Less Sealed A Europa League Place And Will Want A Result Here
Brighton only need a point to secure and confirm qualification for the Europa League. With Man City possibly playing a mostly second-string side here, Brighton will fancy their chances of getting a result more – it is just how the fixtures have fallen. Brighton tend to control possession and play pretty patterns against most teams – but this is far less likely against City. True, City might play the reserve players, but they play the same way no matter who plays, so Brighton will likely have less of the ball than usual here and not have it all their own way.
We anticipate a game between two very cultured and technically gifted sides, and it could be a good watch. Brighton’s part in this will be being careful to play out from the back and trying to evade the City press in midfield while moving through into forward areas. Dunk, Caicedo, Estupinan, Gross and Mac Allister will be essential in building the play, and the athleticism of Caicedo and Estupinan will also be crucial weapons.
When Brighton do get into attacking areas, Estupinan will supplement and overlap Mitoma on the left. They can then link up, or Mitoma can use him as a decoy and come inside to combine in the middle of the pitch or get shots away. The Japanese player’s dribbling and trickery will be vital. On the other side, Enciso is a similarly dangerous player with his dribbling. Mac Allister will link the play in the number 10 position and try to make passes.
Ferguson scored two goals against Southampton and is a very talented young player who can play both on the ground and in the air. He, too, will be crucial. Buonanotte and Welbeck are possible attacking replacements.
Man City Are Champions And May Play A Weaker Team As Against Chelsea
There isn’t much to say for Man City – they have nothing riding on this game. However, if they do play the reserves, the backup players will want to give a good account of themselves to give Pep something to think about before the two finals (though he will highly likely play the same team that started the second leg against Real Madrid in both, injuries permitting). Therefore, Pep will likely want to get a tune out of his side. There is, of course, the chance that he goes full-strength here – he will not want his first-choice players to lose rhythm and go almost three weeks without starting a match. However, we think he will go stronger on the final day against Brentford.
City will play how they always do – retaining possession, high technical ability, tilting play to one side, moving the ball at pace, and exploiting the width. With this personnel, they might revert away from the 3-2-4-1; despite a possibly weaker team, they should still have high-quality players such as Laporte, Akanji, Stones, Foden, Mahrez and Alvarez on the pitch. City have a core of about 16/17 high-quality players, supplemented with promising youth players. They have one of the smaller squads in the league and will look to play the way they always do. If Mahrez, Foden, Palmer, Silva and Alvarez can create in the attacking positions, they can score goals against Brighton.
Our Prediction
With more at stake for Brighton than City (Brighton can still finish 5th, but will likely finish 6th, gaining an automatic Europa League group stage place either way), we see the Seagulls taking the game to City here. Both sides will likely enjoy good spells of possession, and in those times, the other side will be a threat on the counter. We anticipate an entertaining match with good football in tight spaces, excellent combination play, and thrilling transitions. These teams are both tactically and technically astute, and the game will likely reflect that.
If City hadn’t sealed the title yet and needed to win this game, they’d likely go full-strength, and we’d be backing them to win narrowly. However, there is the chance they will take their foot off the gas. Much depends on the side Guardiola selects or whom he brings off the bench. However, Brighton are also an excellent team; we will go for a draw between two elegant sides. It should be an entertaining encounter.
Brighton 1-1 Man City
Brighton vs Man City Betting Tip – Draw Odds:
4.20
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