Leicester vs Arsenal – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Leicester’s home match against title-chasing Arsenal. A dramatic late win over Aston Villa kept Arsenal clear at the PL summit – can they stay on top here? Read on with our Leicester vs Arsenal prediction.

Leicester vs Arsenal Match Preview

Leicester enter this game in mixed form. Indeed, they had improved in the three games before travelling to Old Trafford. A draw with high-flying Brighton and defeats of Aston Villa and Tottenham (where they scored four goals in each) were the perfect tonic to four losses in a row before that. Things did not go according to plan in Manchester, however. Barnes and Iheanacho had great early chances as Leicester dominated United, and the Midlands club might have been able to pull off a shock win.

However, Rashford then scored a nice right-foot finish after a counter-attack. There was VAR controversy as Sabitzer could have been sent off for a high challenge on Faes. Then Rashford’s second goal was adjudged to be onside when it looked off. Regardless, United ran out 3-0 winners with an xG of 4.5 to Leicester’s 1.6. Leicester have now lost three of their last four away games. Things are even worse at home, being second-bottom of the home table with only 12 points. Leicester are in a precarious position, only four points above the relegation zone. They are likely 13-16 points from safety.

Arsenal travel to Leicester after a stunning late victory at Villa Park. Indeed, the Birmingham club had led twice – first through a counter-attack by Watkins where Saliba could have done better. Saka equalised with a left-foot rocket, and then Villa restored their lead through a beautiful finish by Coutinho where he sent Ramsdale the wrong way after a nice move in the middle of the park. However, Zinchenko equalised from range before goals in stoppage time by Jorginho and substitute Martinelli won the game for the Gunners. The London club can take heart from such a fightback amid a title race.

Arsenal had failed to win in three before their trip to Birmingham. Defeats at Goodison, at home to Man City, and a draw with Brentford constituted a mini-crisis. However, they will hope they are back on track now. Things bode well for the Leicester game, as Arsenal are top of the away table this season, with 28 points and nine wins from 12 games. They still sit two points ahead of Man City (with a game in hand) and five points ahead of Man Utd. City are expected to beat Bournemouth at the Vitality. However, Arsenal could extend their lead on United to eight points as the Manchester club have a week off from league duties, facing Newcastle in the Carabao Cup Final.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Leicester:

Might Not Play: Evans

Will Not Play: Bertrand, Justin

Arsenal:

Might Not Play: Partey

Will Not Play: Elneny, Jesus

Leicester vs Arsenal Lineups (Predicted)

Leicester (4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1): Ward; Kristiansen, Faes, Souttar, Castagne; Dewsbury-Hall, Tielemans; Barnes, Maddison, Tete; Iheanacho

Arsenal (4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1): Ramsdale; Zinchenko, Gabriel, Saliba, White; Xhaka, Jorginho, Odegaard; Trossard, Nketiah, Saka

Leicester vs Arsenal Analysis

Leicester Are Still Near The Drop Zone

Leicester must start showing more consistency because, as stated, they are dangerously close to the bottom three. In the fourteenth place, this position is less comfortable than it might first appear, as there are only five points between the 18th and 13th positions. Leicester are a decent team and have probably won fewer points this season than their performances have merited. However, the league table doesn’t care about hard-luck stories. Leicester must try to pick up points soon to spare themselves an uncomfortable end of the season.

Truthfully, we would be amazed if Leicester were relegated. Forty points are enough to escape relegation, and in practice, 36 or 37 might be enough (36, a low 29, and 35 would or did keep teams up in the previous three seasons). Therefore, with 24 points, Leicester only realistically need four or five wins from their final 15 games to stay up. However, escaping relegation is a low bar for Leicester. After all, they surprisingly won the title in 2016, and their squad is arguably top-half in talent. Coach Brendan Rodgers needs to do more with the quality at his disposal as – assuming they stay up – they will want a much improved showing next season.

Arsenal Have Shown Some Steel And Resilience

Arsenal are a club who have been accused of ‘bottling’ games and title races in the past (incidentally, we dislike the term ‘bottling’ as it is pretty reductive and unfair in a high-variance, pressure sport such as football). Indeed, there have been occasions since their last title in 2004 where they have looked like they could win the league, and it hasn’t worked out. This team has also had its mental strength questioned, which is a fair point given that the average squad age is very young, at about 24. Other than Zinchenko and the currently injured Jesus, these players have yet to experience a proper Premier League title race.

However, this season, Mikel Arteta’s young warriors have displayed resilience and a backbone. The comeback against Villa was very impressive. Being a goal down twice, they could have wilted in the Villa Park cauldron, but they did not. They fought back to equalise on two occasions and then won the game in injury time when the pressure was on them. Furthermore, Arsenal are third in the ‘points after falling behind table’; with four wins and 12 points from seven deficits, Arsenal have proved they can win games where their mental fortitude is under examination.

Midfield Battle

The midfield contest might be crucial. Both these teams like to maintain possession and play short passes. Indeed, Arsenal have averaged 58.5 per cent possession this season, and Leicester 50 per cent. Arsenal have completed almost 11,000 passes, and Leicester have nearly 10,000 (in 23 games apiece). Therefore, we don’t think Arsenal will have it all their own way in terms of control. Arsenal had the vast majority of the ball against Villa, but Leicester are a different proposition; where Villa are very direct, Leicester like to pass around in midfield. Don’t get us wrong, Leicester can be deadly on counters, but they like to keep the ball, and we see them having a decent share of possession.

Partey’s fitness is questionable after missing the game at Villa Park. We must recognise the energy and impetus he gives Arsenal. He is a fantastic athlete and speeds everything up in the middle of the park. Jorginho is a more controlled player, and if he plays, Arsenal’s game might be more methodical and slower. He will act as the anchor in midfield, receiving the ball and trying to play short passes with Xhaka and Odegaard. Leicester will also look to have their spells of possession, and Dewsbury-Hall, Tielemans, and Maddison can play through Arsenal’s press. Tielemans and Maddison get many touches of the ball for Leicester. They are both vital in attempting to play through Arsenal and create opportunities.

Attacking Areas

So how will both teams attack? Despite both teams liking to keep possession, transitions on the counter could come into play. Indeed, either teams’ midfielders or full-backs can win the ball in their defensive or middle thirds. They can then can break into the opposition’s half. Both sides generally play with a high line and are compact, squeezing the play. Leicester play often in their own half. Hence, if Odegaard, Xhaka, Saka, Trossard or Martinelli can win the ball in midfield or high positions, they can break onto an out-of-shape Leicester side. The same is true if Leicester can win the ball in midfield. In that case, the passing of Tielemans and the ball-carrying of Dewsbury-Hall can release the wide players.

Said wide players could be crucial in this match. Barnes, Tete, Trossard, Martinelli, and especially Saka are all pacey, direct, and technical players who can create magic moments and beat players with skill and a piece of imagination. They will look to come inside the full-backs and take on the centre-backs, using them as a shield to get shots away. On other occasions, they will go down the line and attempt to play cutbacks and crosses for Iheanacho or Nketiah.

Also critical in this game are the two link players – Odegaard and Maddison. Both players are silky and creative, with exemplary technique and football brains. As well as creating a connection between midfield and attack, both will look to receive the ball between the lines and on the half-turn. These two players are crucial to how their teams operate and create opportunities. Whoever has the better game could be vital in deciding a victor.

Our Prediction

This game is a tricky one to predict. Arsenal have a fantastic away record this season. In contrast, Leicester’s home record is poor, with only three wins from 11 at the King Power. Alternatively, Leicester do tend to be unlucky in certain games and not get the result their performances warrant. The recent return of Maddison has also given them a massive boost. Leicester will also likely deny Arsenal as much of the ball as they would typically have.

However, we believe Arsenal will obtain a narrow victory with how they are doing away from home and the character they have shown this season. The Gunners will be buoyed by their comeback at Villa Park last week. They’ll be determined to keep attaining points to stay ahead of Man City as the season’s final months draw closer.

Leicester 1-2 Arsenal

Leicester vs Arsenal Betting Tip – Arsenal Odds: