West Ham vs Man Utd – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Sunday 7th May 2023
19:00 GMT
London Stadium
As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Man Utd’s trip to the London Stadium. 22 pts from 17 at home for West Ham, 24 in 17 away for Man Utd. Stalemate? Free betting tips and more with our West Ham vs Man Utd prediction.
Premier League Form:
West Ham
Man City
3-0 (A)
Crystal Palace
4-3 (A)
Liverpool
2-1 (H)
Bournemouth
4-0 (A)
Arsenal
2-2 (H)
Man Utd
Brighton
1-0 (A)
Aston Villa
1-0 (H)
Spurs
2-2 (A)
Nottingham Forest
2-0 (A)
Everton
2-0 (H)
West Ham vs Man Utd Preview
The hosts come into this match on the back of three consecutive defeats, and as a consequence, they’re not quite safe from relegation just yet. Worryingly, they’ve conceded nine times during those three matches, whereas previously they were at least more defensively solid than many of their fellow relegation-battlers.
Though they were rather unfortunate not to be afforded the opportunity to draw level with Liverpool at home from the spot to earn an unlikely point, the general pattern of play hasn’t been conducive to getting points at this crucial juncture. This downturn in their form came on the back of an excellent 2-2 draw at home to Arsenal and a 4-0 away victory at Bournemouth which was perhaps not your typical 4-0 game but nonetheless, very impressive.
This raises the question of consistency and the impact of fixture congestion. The Hammers are still in the hunt for the Europa Conference League title, and in this respect, it’s not going to get any easier in an already truncated season thanks to the World Cup break mid-season. It’s difficult for mid-ranking Premier League clubs to build the necessary squad depth to compete on multiple fronts, thus West Ham find themselves averaging exactly one point per game in the Premier League this season.
Man Utd’s recent upturn in form ended with a 1-0 defeat at the AMEX Stadium at the hands of Europe-chasing Brighton. It may have taken a 99th-minute penalty from Mac Allister to deny the visitors a share of the points, but overall Brighton were just that bit better, particularly in the closing stages, and if there was to be a winner on the balance of play towards the end of the match then the right team won.
United’s performance was typical of their recent games – in both halves, they started off as the brighter team but faded (badly in the second half). We’re keen not to explain this away as fatigue and downplay Brighton’s performance – after all, squad management is a vital part of the game, but we can’t help but notice this trend and the effect it is having on results. Recently, they’ve been getting through games but perhaps are incapable of playing well for 90 minutes at the moment.
These Jekyll and Hyde performances are more common away from home, and they’ll perhaps be thankful at the end of the season that Liverpool left it rather late in their charge towards Champions League football. 7 defeats and 32 goals conceded in just 17 away matches tell you that they struggle for consistency away from home, but also this is a common theme in the Premier League this season – United’s away record is the fifth best in the division. Not great, but hardly a disaster.
Team News
Injuries and Suspensions
West Ham:
Might Not Play: Aguerd, Rice, Soucek
Will Not Play: Coufal, Scamacca, Zouma
Man Utd:
Might Not Play: Garnacho
Will Not Play: Heaton, Jones, Martinez, McTominay, Varane, Van de Beek
West Ham vs Man Utd Lineups (Predicted)
West Ham (4-2-3-1): Fabianski; Emerson, Aguerd, Ogbonna, Kehrer; Rice, Soucek; Benrahma, Paqueta, Bowen; Antonio
Man Utd (4-2-3-1): De Gea; Malacia, Shaw, Lindelof, Dalot; Eriksen, Casemiro; Antony, Fernandes, Sancho; Rashford
West Ham vs Man Utd Analysis
West Ham Need to Shut the Back Door
There is perhaps the temptation for West Ham to play more expansive stuff against a Manchester United team that’s there to be gotten at, but the issue here is West Ham don’t defend well in transition when they’re caught upfield. They perform better when they’re able to withstand pressure and break with fluid counterattacks of their own, and they’ll hoping to keep it tight and turn United’s forays forward against them.
It’s possible to punish this Manchester United side as they have a tendency to both fade in games but also in recent months, they’ve been guilty of retreating too much to protect a lead. It’s likely that West Ham will prioritise keeping things tight and trying to remain in the game i.e. at least no more than a goal down before opening up a bit and trying to get a positive result.
They have form in this regard – they were able to get a valuable point against Arsenal and were very unfortunate not to have the opportunity to do the same against Liverpool. In both matches, they were able to remain within touching distance despite being outplayed, and despite United’s issues away from home, Liverpool are worse in that regard and it’s likely that West Ham will show United the same kind of respect.
United Must Capitalise on Their Fast Starts
Any regular observer of Manchester United’s games will tell you that they’re almost invariably a better team in the first half compared with their second-half displays. Generally speaking, a strength of this United team lies in catching the opposition cold, as they have the likes of Fernandes, Eriksen and Casemiro in midfield who are capable of and willing to take on risky passes to attempt to prise open the opposition.
As games go on and teams tend to settle down, combined with cumulative fatigue that clubs involved in deeper runs in Europe have been experiencing this season, they struggle to have the same impact in the final third during the second half and this is reflected in their poor second half xG stats.
Although the situation is complex and there are admittedly other factors at play, it’s noticeable that Arsenal who had a deep Europa League run, West Ham who are still in the UEFA Conference League, Chelsea and Spurs who were involved in the knockout stages of the Champions League, have all suffered with inconsistent performances. Manchester City’s superior strength in depth has no doubt aided them this season, whereas the likes of Newcastle, Brighton and Aston Villa haven’t had continental football to contend with. Liverpool have only recently recovered some form at the right time.
Our Prediction
This has the hallmarks of a well-balanced game, with both sides struggling for consistency throughout any given 90 minutes. West Ham have the tools to hurt United who concede almost two goals per game away from home in the Premier League, but we feel they’ll have to set up in a certain way in order to do so.
United for their part will surely be aware that they’re fading badly in games, and they’ll be keen to come out of the blocks fast and make their likely first-half advantage count. There’s the danger that if they don’t find themselves a couple of goals up at the hour mark, then the now-familiar retreat and eventually, onslaught, could yield a result for West Ham. We’ll back United to get their cushion before West Ham grab one back to set up a tense finale.
West Ham 1-2 Man Utd
West Ham vs Man Utd Betting Tip – Man Utd Odds:
11/10
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