Chelsea vs Brighton – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Brighton’s trip to Stamford Bridge. Chelsea have averaged less than 1 point per game over the last 20 PL games – can Brighton take all 3 points? Read on with our Chelsea vs Brighton prediction.

Chelsea vs Brighton Match Preview

Chelsea come into this game with massive problems under new interim coach Frank Lampard. Indeed, the Blues have not won in their last four league games and have failed to score in the previous three. They were also quickly dispatched in midweek 2-0 by Real Madrid in the Bernabeu, so their chances of Champions League qualification by winning this season’s competition (their only chance given their league position) look slim. At the weekend, they were defeated 1-0 by Wolves at Molineux. It was another game where Chelsea dominated possession and had more shots and xG but couldn’t convert. Their issues in scoring are serious, as they need a proper number 9.

At home, Chelsea have been mediocre this season by their standards. They have collected 23 points from 45, putting them tenth in the home form table. Their issues with accumulating points at Stamford Bridge have been spiralling all season. Teams now go to West London feeling like they have a real opportunity to win. Sitting in tenth position in the league, with 39 points from 30 games, it seems like Chelsea will get nowhere near qualifying for Europe next season. A refresh is what they need.

Brighton make the short trip north to London again in good form but with genuine grievances from their game away to Spurs last weekend. Brighton had 65 per cent possession, 17 shots, and an xG of 1.52 – in truth, they dominated an out-of-sorts Spurs side but were hit with sucker punches and lost 2-1. There was much controversy, though, as Mitoma had a goal ruled out for handball and was denied a penalty – many have claimed that these decisions were wrong and the goal and spot kick should have been awarded. There was also a Dunk penalty claim waved away, which Brighton feel aggrieved by. Head of referees Howard Webb issued an apology, so Brighton are angry at what transpired.

The controversy last weekend aside, Brighton have been going great. They had taken 11 of the previous 15 points and enthralled fans with their exciting, expansive football (they had scored twelve goals in those five games). With some seriously talented players and a bright young coach in Roberto De Zerbi, the Seagulls are arguably the biggest surprise package of the season, and it is great to see them upsetting the more established sides. They are in seventh place with 46 points from 28 games and still have a FA Cup semi-final against Man Utd at Wembley to come later this month. Therefore, their European aspirations are alive and well, and they’ll smell blood against struggling Chelsea.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Chelsea:

Might Not Play: Chukwuemeka

Will Not Play: Koulibaly, Broja

Brighton:

Might Not Play: Lamptey, Colwill

Will Not Play: Lallana, Moder, Sarmiento

Chelsea vs Brighton Lineups (Predicted)

Chelsea (4-3-3): Arrizabalaga; Chilwell, Badiashile, Fofana, James; Gallagher, Fernandez, Kovacic; Felix, Havertz, Sterling

Brighton (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): Steele; Estupinan, Colwill, Dunk, Veltman; Caicedo, Gross; Mitoma, Mac Allister, March; Ferguson

Chelsea vs Brighton Analysis

The Midfield Contest Will Be Interesting as Both Sides Like To Retain Possession

Both these sides can be considered possession sides. Indeed, Chelsea have averaged 59 per cent possession and over 15,000 completed passes this season. Brighton have averaged 60 per cent and over 14,000 (though in two games fewer). Therefore, it is apparent that both these teams build from the back and progress the play patiently in midfield; they like to weave pretty patterns and combinations to play through their opponents.

Hence, the game’s flow could be easier to predict. Both teams will likely have spells where they have the ball and are on top. However, as the home side, Chelsea are more likely to have marginally more of the ball, and Brighton will play more often on the counter. We anticipate Fernandez and Kovacic getting on the ball and trying to maintain it and feed the forwards. Caicedo, Gross and Mac Allister will be their usual busy and industrious selves for Brighton and press the Chelsea players relentlessly. In the periods when Brighton do have the ball, Caicedo and Mac Allister especially are excellent at making the Seagulls tick and giving them the impetus to have spells of dominance.

Both sides must compensate for their attacking full-backs by getting the balance right in midfield. While Gallagher and Mac Allister enjoy joining the forwards, they must be mindful of their defensive duties and try to cover or close down space where the opposition could find joy. Caicedo and Fernandez, as the more defensive midfielders and deep-lying playmakers, are responsible for plugging the gaps in front of the respective defences and not allowing holes to develop.

We look forward to an enticing match where both teams showcase their on-ball ability.

Where Will The Attacking Threat Come From?

With a possible pattern established where both teams will have a good share of possession but Chelsea slightly more, how will each team attack? As always, Chelsea will look to the driving runs, creative ability and crossing of Chilwell and James from full-back. The former was sent off midweek against Real Madrid, but he is available here in a different competition. He and James must try to get forward to support the attack and make themselves available to link with the wingers.

Speaking of said wingers, Felix and Sterling must use their pace and dribbling ability to attack the Brighton full-backs and try to create chances for shots on goals or cut-backs for Havertz. Both players are fast and tricky and can create something from nothing. Havertz will play as a false nine as usual; his ability to link play and interchange with the two wingers should keep Colwill and Dunk guessing. Gallagher will also join the attack from deeper. Chelsea have ample reinforcements, including Cucurella, Mount, Pulisic, Mudryk and Ziyech. All these players can come on and make a difference.

Brighton are a flexible and versatile team in that they are equally happy playing in counter-attacking and transitional situations as they are building the play. Therefore, again we refer to the previously mentioned moments where they are on top and will look to Caicedo, Gross and Mac Allister to create the play (as well as the influential Dunk from centre-back and Steele in goal). However, there will also be plenty of opportunities for them to lull Chelsea in and break at pace, as they have plenty of fast and tricky players. Estupinan is a flyer from left-back, and his link-up down the left side with Mitoma has been a massive weapon all season for Brighton. He will look to get forward and create or deliver crosses for the dangerous Ferguson to attack.

Mitoma will be his usual dangerous and tricky self, trying to dribble against James and attack him. The beauty of Mitoma is that he keeps full-backs guessing as he is equally adept at going on either the inside or the outside (as compared to the much more one-dimensional Antony at Man Utd, for example). His ability to come inside and shoot or deliver crosses will be vital. March is a similar player on the other side – while his shooting can be wasteful, he does find himself with many opportunities to have a pop. Mac Allister, as ever, will link the play between the lines and try to join the attack. Gilmour, Enciso and Welbeck are potential reinforcements.

Our Prediction

Despite Chelsea’s struggles and Brighton now being a serious outfit, this is a tricky game to predict. Often, the bigger sides retain a sense of strength at home even when in a lull, but this hasn’t been the case for Chelsea, as they have only won six of their 15 home games this season. Brighton have done quite well in the last six games, accruing 11 points, though the massive controversy against Spurs will have stung. This sense of injustice will make them even more determined to win at Stamford Bridge.

We have mixed feelings about what might happen in this game – though we don’t think Chelsea will win. They definitely could, but Brighton are such a good team this season with such good players and manager that we feel they will make their periods of dominance and counter-attacks matter. We are split on whether to predict a draw or a Brighton win, but sometimes you have to be brave. Chelsea have looked vulnerable all season, and Brighton have been excellent and are also good away from home. Therefore, while a draw might be a more sensible bet, we are backing Brighton. We believe they can really hurt Chelsea and continue their quest for European football.

Chelsea 1-2 Brighton

Chelsea vs Brighton Betting Tip – Brighton Odds: