Everton vs Southampton Prediction

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Everton vs Southampton Prediction Match Overview

As part of this weekend’s Premier League predictions, following a brief interlude for the cup competitions we preview Everton’s return to the Premier League with a relegation six-pointer against Southampton at Goodison. Everton lost their third-round FA Cup match 3-1 at Old Trafford, and this result is the latest to pile massive pressure on coach Frank Lampard. Before this, the 4-1 home defeat to Brighton represented rock bottom for the Merseyside club. Everton are 19th in the form table over the last ten league matches, having lost seven of those and only picked up five points from 30. Their home league form is also insipid, having won only two of nine and lost the last three. With 14 goals in their 18 league matches, they score fewer than a goal a game. They currently sit in the relegation zone, and the signs do not look good for the remainder of the season.

If there is a short-term glimmer of hope for the Evertonians, it is that their opposition are in as bad form as they are. Southampton did shock Manchester City in the Carabao Cup this week. However, their league form is appalling and has not improved since Nathan Jones took over from Ralph Hassenhuttl. Like Everton, the Saints have won one, drawn two, and lost seven of their last ten league matches. They have a goal difference of minus thirteen across that period. Their away form has been slightly better than at home, but they have only won two of nine on their travels. They have also lost the last three on the road. Therefore, this seems to be a match where a stoppable force faces a moveable object. It likely won’t be a classic, but the losers (if either does lose) are in deep trouble.

Everton vs Southampton Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Everton:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Patterson, Garner, Townsend, Iwobi

Southampton:

Might Not Play: McCarthy, Larios, Livramento, S Armstrong, Walcott

Will Not Play: Bella-Kotchap

Possible Lineups

Everton (4-3-3): Pickford; Mykolenko; Tarkowski, Coady, Coleman; Gueye, Doucoure, Onana; Gray, Calvert-Lewin, McNeil

Southampton (3-4-3): Bazunu; Salisu, Caleta-Car, Lyanco; Perraud, Lavia, Ward-Prowse, Walker-Peters; Mara, Adams, Edozie

Everton vs Southampton Prediction Analysis

Southampton’s Defensive Struggles

Everton could be more solid at the back, having conceded 24 goals in 18 games. However, Southampton are really struggling to keep the ball out of their net. Indeed, in their 18 league games, they have conceded 33 goals – the third-worst record in the division after Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest. It is difficult to pinpoint the cause of this record – under Hassenhuttl, the Saints had games where they lost heavily (a couple of 9-0 defeats spring to mind). It might be a result of their high-pressing style and the fact that, if played through, gaps appear all over the place for the attacking team to exploit. There is also tiredness at the demands such a style places on the small squad or simply the fact that they have lesser-quality players than many teams in the league.

Whatever the reason, Southampton must stop conceding large amounts of goals. A back three of Lyanco, Caleta-Car and Salisu is a talented base to build from, though Bella-Kotchap’s injury is a big blow. Perraud and Walker-Peters must be diligent defensively in this game, as Gray, McNeil, and Gordon are tricky wide options which Everton possess. As always, much will be expected of Ward-Prowse in the midfield for Southampton. Lavia and Diallo are good partners, but the Englishman has often had too much work to do in the middle of the pitch. This factor has been paramount in the Saints’ struggles.

Attacking Areas

Everton’s goalscoring record is abysmal (14 in 18 games), but they will feel like they can score against a porous Southampton side. Gordon, Gray and McNeil are all dangerous with their crossing and dribbling. Gray has shown he can finish with his beautiful curling equaliser at the Etihad. They will look to attack the Southampton wing-backs and the spaces they vacate, so the Saints midfielders have their work cut out in covering the wider areas defensively. A returning Calvert-Lewin is an excellent presence up front. However, the Saints have three centre-backs. Later in the game, Maupay could come on as extra support if things are not going well for the Merseysiders and Lampard needs a goal. The strong running from midfield of Doucoure and Onana could also be a considerable threat to Southampton.

As stated, Southampton are an energetic side that tend to try to win the ball high and exploit from there. They are also a threat from Ward-Prowse’s free-kicks and corners. Therefore, these will be avenues they exploit to try to score the goals they desperately need in this match. Edozie and Mara are tricky customers out wide, and they will look to attack Coleman and Mykolenko at every opportunity. The hard-working full-backs will likely support them. However, in addition to their defensive struggles, Southampton have only scored 15 goals in the league this season. These massive problems at both ends are a recipe for disaster. They do not have a goalscorer and rely too much on magic moments from Ward-Prowse. Edozie and Mara must try to help Adams in the attack. Djenepo, Stuart Armstrong, and Aribo are options from the bench. Overall, though, they are light on consistent quality in attack. Lampard will see this as an excellent opportunity to keep a clean sheet.

Beat the Bookmaker Everton vs Southampton Prediction

These two teams have struggled all season and are clearly relegation candidates. This game might be short of the quality expected of many Premier League matches and could be decided by one goal. However, given how poor these two teams have looked defensively in recent weeks, there will likely be goals here. Everton don’t score many, but Southampton’s struggles defensively mean Everton can get a couple and change their fortunes around at home. Southampton’s midweek result against Manchester City might buoy them, but they have significant problems. We expect this to be a game of mistakes, with chances created from poor rather than brilliant play. We were tempted to predict a 1-1 draw. However, we will give Everton the benefit of the doubt as they might pile more pressure on Jones and temporarily hand Lampard a reprieve.

Everton 2-1 Southampton

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