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Bayern Munich vs Man City – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

Wednesday 19th April 2023
20:00 GMT
Allianz Arena

As part of our Champions League predictions, we examine the second leg of Bayern Munich’s quarter-final clash with Man City. Bayern came undone in the second half and now City are in complete command – or are they? Read on with our Bayern Munich vs Man City prediction.

Bayern Munich

Man City

3-0 (A)


2-0 (H)


1-0 (A)


2-0 (H)


3-0 (A)

Man City

Bayern Munich

3-0 (H)

RB Leipzig

7-0 (H)

RB Leipzig

1-1 (A)


3-1 (H)


0-0 (A)

Bayern Munich vs Man City Match Preview

Bayern come into the second leg in mixed form. They have won two and lost two of new coach Thomas Tuchel’s first five games, but they still sit on top of the Bundesliga (two points ahead of Dortmund) in their quest for an eleventh straight title. Their match at the weekend against Hoffenheim ended in a 1-1 draw. Kramaric cancelled out Pavard’s early goal with about twenty minutes to go. Out of the German Cup, too, Bayern will likely only have the league to fight for after this second leg.

In contrast, Man City make the trip to southern Germany in fantastic form. Pep Guardiola’s men have hit their stride at just the right time and have won 10 consecutive matches. Their form in the Premier League has been sensational in the last six; they have picked up maximum points and scored 18 goals, an average of three per game. Their match against Leicester at the weekend was a little bipolar – they were 3-0 up by half-time, but in the second half Leicester came back to make it 3-1 and then had chances to equalise. However, City won in the end.

The first leg was an entertaining tie between two of Europe’s elite sides. City had less possession with 46 per cent – unusual for them, particularly at the Etihad. However, when they did have the ball, they were much more threatening with it than Bayern, highlighting the misguided belief that more possession always means more dominance. Indeed, City’s xG was 2.02 to 0.87 for Bayern, plus they had more shots on goal.

Bayern had some potshots at Ederson, particularly by Sane (they looked to be having their own battle). However, a beautiful left-foot curling shot from Rodri had given City the lead in the first half. City then capitalised on Upamecano’s mistake (he had a poor night) for Grealish to backheel into Haaland’s path, who beautifully crossed for Bernardo to head home the second. A third arrived when Haaland himself scored a gorgeous right-foot volley from a Stones header in the box.

Hence, City take a commanding lead to Germany. Bayern know they must play the game of their lives to find themselves in the semi-final. That tie will likely now be Real Madrid vs Man City.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Bayern Munich:

Might Not Play: Choupo-Moting, Mane

Will Not Play: Neuer, Hernandez

Man City:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Foden

Bayern Munich vs Man City Lineups (Predicted)

Bayern (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): Sommer; Davies, De Ligt, Pavard, Cancelo; Kimmich, Goretzka; Sane, Musiala, Coman; Muller

Man City: (3-2-4-1 / 4-2-3-1) Ederson; Ake, Dias, Akanji; Rodri, Stones; Grealish, De Bruyne, Gundogan, Bernardo; Haaland

Bayern Munich vs Man City Lineup
Man City vs Bayern Munich Lineup

Bayern Munich vs Man City Analysis

Bayern Are Desperate And Must Attack

The first leg will have been a massive shock for Bayern; they will have known it would be a challenging game travelling to the Etihad but probably didn’t expect a three-goal loss. They didn’t play too badly; City were the better side and deserved to win. However, Bayern had several shots at goal and were in the game until Upamecano’s mistake in the second half.

The fact remains, however, that Bayern must try to overturn a three-goal deficit. Therefore, they must attack as often as possible on home soil. What this means for the tie is that Bayern will likely be the team controlling possession here and pushing on top of Man City. City tend to be a possession team, but this season Guardiola has shifted a bit more to more physicality and counter-attacking, perhaps inspired and encouraged by the arrival of Haaland. Hence, City will likely play more on the break. Bayern, however, must try to control the ball in midfield and ensure that Kimmich, Goretzka and Musiala can pass the ball around and try to avoid the City pressing.

Bayern’s Attacking Threat

We are still determining if Mane will play any part after being suspended due to a fracas with Sane. Hence, the Bayern front four will likely be a combination of Sane, Coman, Musiala, Muller, Gnabry and Choupo-Moting (if he’s fit). The first four will probably start. Cancelo might also get a start from right-back, as Pavard could move infield to take Upamecano out of the firing line. Either way, the wingers must attack the City full-back spaces when they receive it from the midfielders. Musiala will help on the left side and aid Coman, Sane or Gnabry in getting shots on goal or making their way into the box through combination play – Musiala’s dribbling and playmaking ability could be crucial.

Cancelo and Davies will fly forward from full-back to supplement the attack. Muller and Gnabry’s movement and finishing will also be crucial. Bayern need goals and will use every weapon at their disposal to try to get those goals. However, it is a balancing act; they cannot be so gung-ho early on that they leave massive spaces for City to counter. If they can take a one-goal lead into half-time, then they can patiently try to search for two goals in the second half to force extra time.

Man City Will Have Spells Of Possession, But Can Also Play On The Counter And Pick Bayern Off

We will devote less time to City than we did Bayern, as they are in a much more comfortable position in the tie and must keep doing what they are doing. In their 3-2-4-1 system, Stones steps into midfield to help make the play with Rodri. However, there will be occasions when City attack, lose the ball, and Bayern have the opportunity to counter. These moments trigger a move to a more conventional 4-2-3-1, where Stones drops into defence alongside Dias, Ake and Akanji move wide to full-back, and Gundogan falls deeper alongside Rodri. The flexibility within this system allows City to smother teams in possession but not be caught out on transition, as they have physical players in defensive positions.

Rodri keeping the ball and getting many touches in midfield is key, as is his ability to trigger the press. Grealish’s trickery wide left could be an avenue against City loanee Cancelo, as will Bernardo’s buzziness on the right and coming into midfield. De Bruyne will always drive forward with the ball and try to get shots on goal or create for Haaland – the Norwegian has 47 goals so far this season and looks to be integrating into the City team well now. Generally, City will feel they can score goals against Bayern and have moments of possession. However, they have a significant opportunity here to play more on the break and pick a desperate Bayern off.

Our Prediction

The nature of two-legged European ties sometimes makes the second leg easier to predict in terms of flow than a one-off league match. That is because if a team wins heavily in the first leg (as Man City did here), the second leg is imbalanced and does not start from 0-0, even though that is what the scoreline says. Bayern are 3-0 down from the start of this match and must win the second leg by at least three clear goals to avoid elimination from Europe. Therefore, unlike the first leg, they start desperately knowing they must take risks and expose themselves, thus allowing City to transition on them in crucial moments.

Of course, Tuchel may play a more patient game and try to pick the correct times – Bayern aren’t generally ones to panic. However, they are no fools either and know that beating Man City by three goals (even at home) is a monumental task. They will try to strike some balance, but it is only natural that there will be a bit of desperation about them, too, especially if the game goes longer and they still haven’t eaten into the aggregate score.

Hence, this tie is set up well for City. While Bayern may well get on the scoresheet, we see City having moments of dominance but more often picking Bayern off on the counter-attack and continuing their winning streak. The tie is tilted too far to City’s advantage, and they’ll possibly win on the night.

Bayern Munich 1-2 Man City

Bayern Munich vs Man City Betting Tip – Man City Odds:


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