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Bayern Munich vs PSG – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

Wednesday 8th March 2023
20:00 GMT
Allianz Arena

As part of our Champions League predictions, we take a look at PSG’s visit to Munich. Bayern hold a 1-0 lead from the first leg and PSG have conceded 11 goals in 6 games. Home win? Read on with our Bayern Munich vs PSG prediction.

Bayern Munich


1-0 (A)


2-0 (H)


3-0 (A)


4-2 (A)


5-0 (H)



1-0 (A)


2-1 (A)

Maccabi Haifa

7-2 (H)


1-1 (H)


1-1 (A)

Bayern Munich vs PSG Match Preview

Bayern are in typically good form this season. Indeed, they have lost only one of their last 23 competitive games and are undefeated at home. However, there have been chinks in their armour in the Bundesliga. Since the league returned from the World Cup/winter break hiatus, Bayern have only won four of their eight games (and drew three). That loss alluded to earlier came, too, against Borussia Monchengladbach. Having won 2-1 away at Wolfsburg at the weekend, Bayern are chasing eleven consecutive titles. However, Dortmund are pushing them, as both clubs have 49 points after 23 games.

PSG have recovered from a slight blip earlier in the season to take an eight-point lead over Marseille at the top of the Ligue 1 table. Indeed, they sit top of the form table in France over the last six games, with the only blemish being a defeat to Monaco in February. They beat Nantes 4-2 at the weekend. The Parisians will fancy their chances of going on to claim the title, which would be their ninth championship in eleven seasons.

PSG will be disappointed with losing the first leg. In a tight and closely contested game, PSG had an xG of 1.01 to Bayern’s 1.26. Bayern had 55 per cent possession, and there were plenty of goal attempts by both teams, but it was cagey. Coman scored the only goal of the game in the 53rd minute. Mbappe then had an equaliser ruled out by VAR in the 82nd minute. Pavard was sent off for Bayern in injury time.

PSG know they have a massive job on here – they have to win in the Allianz, and, even if they do, a one-goal victory would only force extra time. Given Bayern’s brilliance at home, it is a tall order for PSG. Indeed, Bayern have won four of their last five matches against PSG and have scored at least two goals in each of their previous four home matches against them. Therefore, despite possessing the geniuses that are Messi and Mbappe (Neymar is out), PSG have a considerable task and history is working against them.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Bayern Munich:

Might Not Play: Mazraoui, Sane

Will Not Play: Neuer, Hernandez, Pavard

Club Brugge:

Might Not Play: Mukiele, Marquinhos

Will Not Play: Sanches, Hakimi, Kimpembe, Neymar

Bayern Munich vs PSG Lineups (Predicted)

Bayern (4-2-3-1): Sommer; Davies, Upamecano, De Ligt, Stanisic; Kimmich, Goretzka; Mane, Musiala, Coman; Muller

PSG (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Marquinhos, Ramos, Danilo; Mendes, Ruiz, Verratti, Vitinha, Mukiele; Mbappe, Messi

Bayern Munich vs PSG Lineup
PSG vs Bayern Munich Lineup

Bayern Munich vs PSG Analysis

Midfield Battle

The midfield battle will likely be crucial in the second leg. As we stated in our preview for the first leg, both teams had completed over 3,000 passes in six games. In possession stats, Bayern have averaged 64 per cent in the Bundesliga and PSG 60 per cent in Ligue 1. This dominance speaks to the financial power both clubs wield over the other clubs in their countries. However, the fact remains that both like to control the game and try to assert their superiority over the opposition. Bayern (as stated) had more ball at the Parc des Princes. They are an even better possession team than PSG, so we see them having more of it in this game.

Thus, PSG will likely play more on the break than they are generally accustomed to. They will probably get chances and have periods where they are on top. However, the pattern of the game will likely be one where Bayern probe and try to break down a more structured and organised PSG defence. Kimmich and Goretzka must try to build play for Bayern. At the same time, Verratti will be his usual tigerish, pressing self and pass well between him, Ruiz, and Vitinha when PSG have the ball. Bayern are used to taking the initiative, but PSG carry more threat than many teams they face at the Allianz, so Bayern must be more careful.

Attacking Areas

So, given that PSG are a severe threat on the break with Mbappe and Messi (despite Neymar’s absence), how will the teams attack? Bayern will likely line up with a front four of Coman, Musiala, Muller, and the returning Mane. The Senegalese player’s return after an injury is a massive boon, as he is, without a doubt, one of the best players in the world. His speed and trickery, both in possession and on the counter (for when PSG are attacking), are fantastic weapons. The same is true of Coman on the other side. However, the flying Sane is likely missing, which is a blow for Bayern.

Musiala in the middle will likely connect the midfield and attack. He plays a similar role for Bayern as Odegaard does for Arsenal – being an intelligent link player with excellent dribbling and passing. Bayern are also good at attacking from full-back, and we see the raiding Davies starting this game. He has brilliant technique, passing, and crossing abilities. Davies is also speedy and great at getting up and down the line. Ramos, Danilo, Marquinhos, Ruiz, and Verratti must beware of the threat of the Bayern front four and full-backs. Verratti, in particular, must come across to cover when PSG’s full-backs go forward.

As stated, PSG have plenty in attack with the world-class Mbappe and Messi, who plenty argue are the two best players in the world. Mendes and Mukiele (if the latter is fit, Hakimi is out with allegations against him) from wing-back must get forward and support the front two as often as possible. PSG have experimented with three at the back recently. This formation suits them as it allows them to pack the midfield more and offer more protection to the defence. Coach Christophe Galtier may be more comfortable soaking up pressure and hitting on transitions with Mbappe’s devastating pace.

As well as Mendes and Mukiele supporting Messi and Mbappe, Vitinha often joins the attack and must also link up with the two forwards. We can talk about tactics and styles of play all day, but when players like Messi and Mbappe are in your team, all bets are off. They are the type of footballers who can create something from nothing – one fantastic pass, dribble, shot, or moment of magic can arrive from nowhere. PSG will back them to score the goals to get them back into this tie. Make no mistake, PSG must win, and they must try to be positive.

Our Prediction

This game is a challenging match to call as one between two of Europe’s heavyweights and best teams. Bayern are relentless at home; the Allianz has been a fortress for them for many years, but they have yet to lose there this season, so PSG must do what no other side has done. PSG come into the game in good form, though, winning three in a row since the first leg and scoring eleven goals. Messi and Mbappe have been brilliant, and PSG know that their hopes of creating and scoring rest on these two players’ shoulders.

PSG, in recent years, have moved away from their ‘galactico’ model and tried to fill the team with industrious workers and unheralded players, while Messi, Mbappe, and Neymar provide the gloss and stardust. We anticipate them playing fairly cautiously in the first half hour and looking to the two superstars up front on transitions. Bayern will try to break PSG down. The longer the game goes without a goal, the more desperate PSG will become, and if Bayern score early, PSG are in big trouble. Having won the first game, the tactical set-up suits Bayern as they have no pressing need to score and can play their possession game and counter on the occasions PSG attack. We see Bayern winning again in a tight contest and booking their place in the quarter-finals.

However, we must add a caveat here – no matter how well Bayern might play or how poorly PSG might play, those two players up front for the Parisians are game-changers. Bayern have several of their own, too, but any team with Messi and Mbappe can always produce a result. Still, the sensible money is on Bayern to win and progress.

Bayern Munich 2-1 PSG

Bayern Munich vs PSG Betting Tip – Bayern Munich Odds:


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