Chelsea vs Dortmund – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our Champions League predictions, we take a look at Dortmund’s trip to Stamford Bridge. Chelsea finally won at the weekend; however, Dortmund have won 10 matches in row. Can they finish the job? Read on with our Chelsea vs Dortmund prediction.

Chelsea vs Dortmund Match Preview

Chelsea come into this match on the back of a narrow, yet timely victory over struggling Leeds United which ended a run of six matches without a win in all competitions. While they didn’t blow Leeds away by any means – the match itself was a relatively even contest – Potter’s men won’t care as securing the victory mattered above all else on Saturday. While the Blues find themselves in 10th place in the Premier League table with approximately 2/3rds of the season gone, qualification for European football in the Europa League or Conference League, if not the Champions League, remains a feasible goal provided they can build on that long-awaited victory on the weekend.

In the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie against Dortmund, Chelsea overall created the better chances of the match in which profligate finishing let them down – a common theme of their campaigns in both domestic and continental football. Despite that setback, the manner in which they played could serve to give them some belief that they can create the chances to turn this tie around. Creating chances is one thing for this Chelsea team, yet finishing them has proven to be problematic throughout the season. A 1-0 deficit, even to an in-form team such as Dortmund, isn’t an insurmountable obstacle to overcome at home even for a side trying to play their way out of a poor patch of form.

Dortmund continue to find a way to win games and consequently are in the midst of a 10-match winning streak in all competitions. Despite being outplayed at times against RB Leipzig in the second half as Leipzig sought a way back into the match, Terzic’s men emerged with a 2-1 victory that brought them level on points with Bayern Munich with 11 games remaining. Crucially, this also opened up a seven-point gap between themselves and their opponents that day, and another season of Champions League football is looking increasingly likely for Dortmund.

Dortmund will be satisfied with their performance in their 1-0 first-leg win, but there is a sense that the job is not yet done. While Chelsea have been a shadow of themselves this season when compared to the last couple of seasons under Thomas Tuchel, they did create some excellent chances away from home and a 1-0 lead in a tie such as this is a slender one. Nevertheless, Dortmund’s previously sketchy away form has improved dramatically following the restart and as such, we feel that home advantage is perhaps not as big a factor in this tie as one would ordinarily expect in a game of this magnitude.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Chelsea:

Might Not Play: Azpilicueta, James

Will Not Play: Aubameyang, Badiashile, Broja, Kante, Madueke, Mendy, Mount, Silva

Dortmund:

Might Not Play: Kobel, Malen

Will Not Play: Adeyemi, Duranville, Kamara, Morey Bauza, Moukoko, Ryerson

Chelsea vs Dortmund Lineups (Predicted)

Chelsea (4-3-3): Arrizabalaga; Chilwell, Koulibaly, Fofana, James; Fernandez, Loftus-Cheek, Kovacic; Joao Felix, Havertz, Sterling

Dortmund (4-3-3): Kobel; Guerreiro, Schlotterbeck, Sule, Wolf; Can, Reus, Bellingham; Brandt, Bynoe-Gittens, Haller

Chelsea vs Dortmund Analysis

Chelsea Must Open Up

While Chelsea were caught in the first leg on the break and failed to take their chances at the other end, nothing changes here. As playing for the draw is obviously not an option, and Dortmund are averaging 2.4 goals per game in all competitions since the restart, we can assume that Chelsea will be at least as attack-minded as they were in the first leg. While Chelsea were able to keep a clean sheet on the weekend to defeat Leeds 1-0, Dortmund are a different proposition altogether, and keeping it tight with the aim of shutting the opposition down and taking a chance or two at the other end will likely see them concede at least once.

Despite their excellent run of form, Dortmund do give up chances and concede goals perhaps more than they would like. Clearly, any football team doesn’t like conceding, but what we mean by that is they’ve conceded goals to Augsburg (3), Mainz (1), Bochum (1) and Hertha (1). We mean no disrespect to those teams, they have their own qualities and the Bundesliga is of a good standard overall, but it demonstrates that this Dortmund team is unlikely to be able to stop Chelsea from creating enough chances to at least have a shot at getting back into the tie.

Dortmund Can Afford to Be More Reactive

On the other hand, despite the chances they created in the first leg, Chelsea didn’t and don’t look like a side that are capable of scoring multiple times in a game of this magnitude. It sounds simple to say so, but Chelsea have not scored more than one goal against anybody since their 2-0 Premier League home victory over Bournemouth in late December. That’s a run of 12 matches across all competitions, during which they have breached opposition defences just five times. That’s an incredible statistic for such a team, and perhaps a telling one.

What this means, evidently, is that Dortmund most probably won’t and shouldn’t need to employ anything as extreme as a low block. What they can do is drop a bit deeper to limit the space that Chelsea’s inconsistent attackers have to operate in and look to do what they do best when faced with capable possession teams (Chelsea do still enjoy most of the possession in most games they play) – hit them quickly in transition to create clear chances. It’s rather telling and perhaps a little predictable that Dortmund’s winner in the opening leg came via such a scenario, and we expect them to employ a similar approach in the second leg, particularly given the fact that Chelsea struggle to put the ball in the back of the net.

Our Prediction

Chelsea will be relieved that they finally ended their Premier League drought, both in terms of wins and goals, with a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Leeds and that could provide them with some impetus coming into this game. Therefore, given that they also created some good chances against the visitors in the opening leg, we anticipate that they’ll probably be able to score again this evening.

The issue is, can they score twice and keep out a Dortmund side which is superb in transition at the other end? Probably not. Dortmund won’t look like the dominant team at times – we expect them to have around 40-45% of the ball in this one, but they don’t need to play like that to hurt this Chelsea team. Time and time again, Chelsea have failed to deal with opponents who attack directly and with purpose, and therefore a clean sheet against a team as talented as Dortmund is rather unlikely. Potter’s men will likely put up a valiant effort that will ultimately be in vain.

Chelsea 1-1 Dortmund

Chelsea vs Dortmund Betting Tip – Draw Odds: