Man City vs Bayern Munich – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Tuesday 11th April 2023
As part of our Champions League predictions, we take a look at Man City’s quarter final clash against Bayern Munich. City are favourites, yet Bayern have won all 8 CL games. Shock on the cards? Read on with our Man City vs Bayern Munich prediction.
Man City vs Bayern Munich Match Preview
Man City come into the Champions League quarter-final first leg against Bayern in excellent form. Indeed, after a challenging season, Pep Guardiola’s side have won seven of their last eight league games (drawing the other). In five of these eight, they have scored at least three goals. Recent hammerings of rivals Liverpool and Southampton at the weekend will see the Manchester side brimming with confidence. After Arsenal’s draw at Liverpool this weekend, City have the title in their own hands again (6 points behind Arsenal with a game in hand and the Gunners still to come to the Etihad).
City had no issues getting past Leipzig in the last round. After a close encounter in Germany where Leipzig equalised to make it 1-1, City destroyed their visitors by a resounding 7-0 scoreline in the second leg. This match saw five goals for Haaland, which saw him equal the most goals in a game record previously set by Lionel Messi and Luiz Adriano. Therefore, City can take confidence from this and feel optimistic about coming up against Bundesliga opposition once more.
Bayern travel to Britain somewhat out of sorts. Indeed, ex-coach Julian Nagelsmann was sacked during the international break as Bayern sat second in the league following a defeat by Leverkusen. Bayern then appointed ex-Dortmund, PSG and Chelsea coach Thomas Tuchel. Since then, Bayern have beaten Dortmund and Freiburg in the league. However, Freiburg eliminated them from the German Cup. Hence, there is room for improvement.
Bayern made light work of French club PSG in the round of 16. A second-half Coman goal in Paris gave them the lead in the tie, and then in the second leg, two more second-half goals from Choupo-Moting and Gnabry sealed their place in the quarter-final. City will represent a more demanding test than a PSG side that has never looked like a proper team. City, in contrast, are a well-oiled unit, and Bayern know they must be on their game to have any chance at the Etihad.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Foden
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Neuer, Hernandez, Tel, Choupo-Moting
Man City vs Bayern Munich Lineups (Predicted)
Man City: (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3) Ederson; Ake, Dias, Akanji, Stones; Gundogan, Rodri; Grealish, De Bruyne, Mahrez; Haaland
Bayern (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3): Sommer; Davies, Upamecano, De Ligt, Pavard; Kimmich, Goretzka; Sane, Musiala, Coman; Muller
Man City vs Bayern Munich Analysis
Midfield Battle For Possession
The midfield area will likely be crucial in this match. Both these teams are very adept at keeping possession. Indeed, City have averaged 65 per cent possession in their Premier League games this season and are top of the completed passes list with over 17,500. While the Bundesliga is weaker than the Premier League, Bayern have averaged 64 per cent of the ball in Germany, with over 15,000 passes completed. Therefore, this match is clearly between two teams that prize possession and dominate the ball against their opponents.
City might have more of the ball in this game, though not significantly. Bayern have much pace in attacking areas and will likely hit on the counter-attack a bit more than they usually would in Germany against much weaker teams than City. Guardiola will task Rodri and Gundogan in midfield to get on the ball and build play with progressive passing through the lines. At the same time, Ake and Dias will pass out from the back. Stones could come infield to form a three at the back and prevent counter-attacks from Bayern. De Bruyne will be his usual driving self; linking play and coming into midfield to create a three which can maintain possession. Bernardo Silva is also an option – he is a nippy player and good in tight spaces, which could be crucial.
Bayern must not allow gaps to appear between the lines where the likes of De Bruyne can find joy. Kimmich and Goretzka will be responsible for plugging holes appearing as City try to progress play. They must also cover the full-backs as they run forward. Musiala will likely drop into midfield to form a three, similar to De Bruyne for City. These link players are crucial, and there will be moments when Bayern are in the ascendancy and have possession of their own. On these occasions, they must try to recycle the ball and play in tight spaces where they can find gaps in the City unit.
It should be an intriguing midfield battle between several world-class operators. However, we anticipate City having about 55-60 per cent possession.
How Will The Teams Attack?
These sides come to life in attacking areas and the final third of the pitch. City have scored 113 goals this season, whereas Bayern have scored 117, so there is plenty of talent in finding the net. We expect Ake to try to support the attack for City – he will have to try to get forward and supplement the forward play.
It’s the front four where City excel, though – we have already mentioned De Bruyne and his ability to come deep to collect the ball, drive forward, and make the play. His passing, crossing and shooting will be vital. However, on the left, Grealish has recently come into his own. Truthfully he had been playing pretty well for a while, he just didn’t have the statistics to go with his performances. However, now he has added goals and assists to his game, getting both in recent games against Liverpool and Southampton. With Foden out, Grealish must receive the ball wide-left and try to drive at Pavard in the right-back area. The Bayern full-back must be very wary of Grealish’s technical ability, close control, dancing feet and ability to shoot when he gets into threatening positions.
On the right, Mahrez is a severe threat with his immaculate first touch and ability to cut in and cross or shoot. And, of course, it’s games like this where Haaland has been brought in to make the difference. He must make runs throughout the match and use his pace and power to try to bully De Ligt and Upamecano. Haaland is a highly physical player with excellent finishing – he must be on his game here and get chances if City are to function well as a unit and win this game. The stage is set for the striker. Alvarez is a talented, hard-working player who can act as an attacking reinforcement from the bench.
Bayern have threats of their own. Sane (a former City player) and Coman are flying wingers who can play on either side and switch wings throughout the game. They must attack the City full-backs and try to use their pace and dribbling to come inside and get shots on goal, or go down the sides to deliver crosses into the box. We think Bayern will start with a false nine in Muller, given Choupo-Moting’s injury – Muller must use his typically intelligent movement and industry to give Bayern more impetus in attack.
Musiala is a fantastic young link player. His passing between the lines, movement, and excellent dribbling skills will be crucial if Bayern are to create and do something unpredictable that can upset the City defensive shape. Davies is a real flyer from left-back, and he, too, will be a threat getting up and down the pitch. Mane has had a challenging time at Bayern since transferring to Bavaria last summer, and we think he will start on the bench. However, he and Gnabry are great, pacey, tricky weapons that can be unleashed in the second half when City’s legs are tiring. Overall, Bayern have a real chance of scoring goals here.
This match is a difficult one to predict. On the one hand, City have looked like a different team this season than the machine they were in previous years. However, there are recent signs that they are coming very strong for the season’s climax. While Bayern dispatched PSG pretty easily, they haven’t had it all their own way in the Bundesliga despite monopolising that competition for the last decade. It’s true, though, that both teams can defeat anyone on their day, and a first-leg quarter-final game under the night lights could bring out the best in both.
We are going to go for a slim City win. We should add that we would not be surprised at any of the three possible outcomes occurring – Bayern are a very talented team that are more than capable of coming to the Etihad and getting a result. Some people feel Tuchel is a defensive coach, but we think he will try to get goals here. However, we feel that City are coming into form right now and will see more of the ball and create more attacking situations. We fancy a high-scoring classic between two elite teams – if City do win, Bayern could undoubtedly overturn the tie next week in the Allianz Arena.
Man City 3-2 Bayern Munich
Man City vs Bayern Munich Betting Tip – Man City Odds:
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