Man City vs Real Madrid – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our Champions League predictions, we examine the second leg of Man City’s semi-final clash with Real Madrid. This is a re-run of last year’s semi-final – will it have a happier ending for Pep’s men this time around? Read on with our Man City vs Real Madrid prediction.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Man City:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Ake

Real Madrid:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play:

Man City vs Real Madrid Lineups (Predicted)

Man City: (3-2-4-1 / 4-2-3-1) Ederson; Walker, Dias, Akanji; Rodri, Stones; Grealish, De Bruyne, Gundogan, Silva; Haaland

Real Madrid (4-3-3): Courtois; Alaba, Rudiger, Militao, Carvajal; Kroos, Modric, Valverde; Vinicius Jr., Rodrygo, Benzema

Man City vs Real Madrid Analysis

Man City Will Play with a Higher Tempo

For the first half hour at the Santiago Bernabeu, City were largely dominant and it was because they were able to move the ball quickly and precisely. Generally speaking, to beat Real Madrid at the top of their game it’s not enough to retain the ball at all costs and grind them down – they’re far too dangerous on the break to turn over the ball to them across your own backline/defensive midfielders.

So what City did instead, and did very effectively before Vinicius Jr. stunned them with a strike of the highest quality, was to play more of a vertical game in possession, looking to stretch and pin Real Madrid in. It almost paid dividends as they created several clear chances and forced Courtois into making some excellent saves. Their best chance of victory is to replicate that first half hour or so because as the saying goes, ‘on another day…’.

Therefore, we anticipate that City’s coaching staff will recognise the need to play at a higher tempo with pace and movement and will try to establish a lead early on to build on. Real were able to create some dangerous situations on the break but that’s par for the course – it’s incredibly difficult to stop them doing so, and therefore it’s better for City to concentrate on creating their own chances and taking risks rather than playing cautious possession-heavy football which normally would favour the visitors.

Real Madrid Could Use City’s Aggressive Approach Against Them

Yes, this is the cliched possession versus counterattacking scenario, but the truth is that Real Madrid are so dangerous in transition with their highly creative midfield and an inventive attacking unit that can seem to be telepathic on occasions. Last season’s Champions League triumph was written off as ‘luck’ by many observers, but when they do it so often on the big occasions, how much luck is really involved?

An alternative viewpoint would suggest that Real are set up to do maximum damage with the talent they have at their disposal. Against lesser teams, they’re more of a typical vertical tiki-taka team and would expect to have north of 60% possession in most games, but when they come up against the better sides in Europe they’re specialists in exploiting mistakes.

They know that because of their creative and attacking talent, they don’t need quite so many chances compared with most other teams, and therefore they can shore up their defence and enjoy attacking into space in transition. They’re not afraid to go long when the opportunity presents itself to set free the likes of Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo in wide positions, and sometimes their mere presence can force other teams to be cautious about committing their own players forward.

Our Prediction

Manchester City are heavy favourites with the bookies at just outside 1/2 with most outlets. There is a solid chance that City can win this game and reach their second Champions League final in three seasons, the implied odds of 66% for City versus just 18% for Real Madrid seems instinctively wrong. We’re also factoring in that Real Madrid will be well-rested, and they won’t be panicked by a strong City start.

We feel that extra time is a strong possibility in this match. As for the winner? We feel this is more of a coin flip. Ordinarily, we’d take City’s superior domestic showing and their 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu to suggest that they can finish the job at home, but Real Madrid are a very difficult team to kill off. Additionally, granted that
City rested a few players, they were vulnerable at times against Everton and Real are incredibly strong in transition. Therefore, we’re going with a high-scoring draw in normal time, extra time and penalties.

Man City 2-2 Real Madrid (3-3 After Extra Time), Penalty Shootout

Man City vs Real Madrid Betting Tip – Draw Odds: