Fenerbahce vs Sevilla – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Thursday 16th March 2023
Sukru Saracoglu Stadium
As part of our Europa League Predictions, we examine the second leg of the round of 16 tie between Fenerbahce and Sevilla. Sevilla won the first leg 2-0 but were by no means dominant – can Fenerbahce make home advantage count? Read on with our Fenerbahce vs Sevilla prediction.
Sevilla (CL and EL)
Fenerbahce vs Sevilla Match Preview
While the first leg in their Europa League round of 16 clash between these two sides ended 2-0 to Sevilla, most observers felt that this wasn’t a fair reflection of the game as happens so often in football. Fenerbahce came close on a number of occasions, and Sevilla’s opening goal was a result of a wicked deflection. That said, the Spanish side managed to add a second goal late on through Erik Lamela to give Sevilla a commanding 2-0 lead to take to Istanbul. The Turks ended the match with 1.22 xG to 0.69 xG, but nothing for their efforts.
Fenerbahce have had a week to lick their wounds and benefited from no weekend Super Lig match, and will perhaps enter this contest fresher than their opponents. Before their disappointing first-leg defeat, Fenerbahce had won six games from seven in all competitions as they look to close the gap on their fierce rivals Galatasaray at the top of the table. They stand nine points behind with a game hand, yet also five points ahead of another Istanbul rival in Besiktas whom they also have a game in hand over.
Sevilla will be delighted to be entering this second-leg match with a 2-0 lead as they’re surely conscious of their poor away form of late which has seen them lose four of their last five in all competitions. In fact, their only victory in their last seven away matches was in the Copa del Rey against La Liga 2 side Alaves, and that was arguably against the run of play. The fact of the matter is that Sevilla are no longer the side of last season, and the fact that they find themselves just two points outside of the relegation zone at this stage of the season is not down to variance.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play: Alioski, Dursun
Will Not Play: Gustavo Henrique, Luan Peres, Sangare
Might Not Play: Papu Gomez, Rekik
Will Not Play: Gueye, Marcao
Fenerbahce vs Sevilla Lineups (Predicted)
Fenerbahce (4-1-3-2): Bayindir; Lincoln, Szalai, Akaydin, Kadioglu; Willian Arao; Rossi, Zajc, Kahveci; Valencia, King
Sevilla: (3-4-3): Bono; Nianzou, Gudelj, Fernando; Telles, Rakitic, Jordan, Navas; Gil, En-Nesyri, Suso
Despite their issues, we think that Sevilla have the necessary quality in the final third to score and to make the task of reaching the quarter-finals that much more difficult for the hosts. We also think that Sevilla were rather fortunate to emerge with a two-goal lead from the first leg and that on balance a draw probably would’ve been the fairer result. Therefore, we’ll back Fenerbahce to get the win on the night in front of a partisan home crowd, but not to advance to the last eight.
While some may point to the fact that La Liga is clearly of a higher standard than the Turkish Super Lig, Sevilla have earned a paltry 10 points from 12 La Liga matches away from home. Fenerbahce have also been reasonably good at home in their Europa League matches so far this campaign, defeating Dynamo Kyiv and AEK Larnaca before coming from 3-0 down at home to Rennes to draw 3-3 in an excellent second-half performance that effectively won them Group B
Part of not predicting Fenerbahce to qualify, despite what will probably be a valiant effort, is down to researching those games in which Sevilla have conceded three goals or more away from home. Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Man City, Real Madrid and Arsenal (if we’re counting the Emirates Cup) all managed three or more goals. Yet, PSV (2), Dortmund (1), and Copenhagen (0) didn’t. While we don’t doubt that Fenerbahce were worth at least a draw in the opening match, they failed to take their chances and we can’t see them scoring more than twice here to put Sevilla out.
Fenerbahce 2-1 Sevilla
Fenerbahce vs Sevilla Betting Tip – Fenerbahce Odds:
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