Man Utd vs Sevilla – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our Europa League Predictions, we take a look at the first leg of the quarter final tie between Man Utd and Sevilla. Sevilla have failed to win away in Europe all season, and United have a brilliant home record. Home win? Read on with our Man Utd vs Sevilla prediction.

Man Utd vs Sevilla Match Preview

Manchester United enter this match having gone some way to rectifying a poor patch of form and inconsistent performances to tighten their grip on a Champions League spot for next season. Navigating a tricky home fixture versus an impressive Brentford outfit before dominating an Everton side which, although perhaps not the most talented have improved collectively under Sean Dyche sees Ten Hag’s men come into this crucial game in high spirits. However, every silver lining has a cloud, and they will be missing a vital source of goals with Marcus Rashford’s absence due to injury.

Many observers were surprised with the relative ease with which they dispatched Sevilla’s arch-rivals Real Betis in their round of 16 clash. While the Seville-based side had their moments in the first leg late in the second half, by and large, they were second best – United were good value for their 5-1 aggregate win. Man Utd are the bookmakers’ favourites for the competition by quite some margin at less than 2/1, and while that may be overstating their true chances it’s clear that they will be in the reckoning for their third Europa League final in a decade.

Sevilla are no strangers to Europa League glory themselves, having lifted UEFA’s secondary competition on no fewer than six occasions which makes them the most successful Europa League side. Incredibly, all six titles have come within the last 20 years during a period in which they’ve made the competition their own. They’ve won all six of their Europa League finals, and in terms of pedigree, there are none better at this level. Unfortunately, Sevilla simply haven’t been in that kind of form for much of the season, despite finding a way to reach the quarter-final stage yet again.

Domestically, they’ve been poor, and recent steps contrary to the club’s normal identity have been taken with a view to ensuring the preservation of their La Liga status. It’s unfair to call new coach Jose Mendilibar a dinosaur – such labels are normally the preserve of tactical dogma and let’s not forget that Sevilla have been woeful at times this season playing more progressive stuff – but he is something of a relegation specialist. In their Champions League campaign, they were largely disappointing, and frankly, they were perhaps fortunate to get past Fenerbahce in the round of 16 on the balance of play over the two legs.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Man Utd:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Garnacho, Heaton, McTominay, Rashford, Shaw, Van de Beek

Sevilla:

Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Corona, Gueye, Jordan

Man Utd vs Sevilla Lineups (Predicted)

Man Utd (4-2-3-1): De Gea; Malacia, Varane, Martinez, Wan-Bissaka; Casemiro, Eriksen; Sancho, Fernandes, Antony; Weghorst

Sevilla: (4-2-3-1): Bono; Acuna, Gudelj, Bade, Navas; Fernando, Gueye; Gil, Rakitic, Ocampos; En-Nesyri

Man Utd vs Sevilla Analysis

Sevilla’s New Tactical Approach

Any change of coach is bound to result in tactical changes, new ideas and differing appraisals of playing personnel, but this is a radical shift from Jorge Sampaoli. Of course, Sampaoli hadn’t been helped by a number of key departures, particularly in defence with both Kounde and Diego Carlos moving on to Barcelona and Aston Villa respectively. Nevertheless, it’s perhaps fair to say that Sevilla’s progressive style of play was somewhat out of step with the defensive resources at their disposal and it wasn’t too much of a shock to see them undone time and again.

Mendilibar has dispensed with the back three and wing-back system in order to play a defensive midfield pair in front of their fragile back four. To compensate, Ivan Rakitic is now playing in a more advanced role. While it’s early in the new coach’s tenure, they managed a 2-0 away victory at Cadiz before leading Celta Vigo despite an early red card, before a late collapse and two goals conceded saw them draw 2-2. Therefore, we can expect that Sevilla will prioritise limiting Manchester United to 1 or 2 goals and hoping that they can make the most of their opportunities on the break to take something back to Sevilla and their partisan crowd.

United Could be More Composed in Midfield

With the substitute appearance of Christian Eriksen and the restoration of Casemiro to the starting lineup following his domestic suspension, United now have a couple of additional playmaking options in midfield to complement Bruno Fernandes. Though Sabitzer has started to show some more initiative in midfield, part of United’s performance issues in recent weeks has, in our opinion, been due to the lack of creative options available to them – mark Fernandes out of the game and United looked flummoxed at times. With additional options in there, including Casemiro who is a creative passer for a player of his archetype, United should find themselves with more control.

Additionally, with Rashford’s absence, Jadon Sancho is likely to be called upon and he plays as more of a floating attacking midfielder as opposed to Rashford’s more direct game. This could be a double-edged sword of course – what you add with Sancho in terms of ball retention, recycling possession and link-up play, you lose with reduced goal threat and a physical presence that Rashford’s opponents this season would tell you can be extremely problematic to contain. On the other hand, we expect Sevilla to be resolute and difficult to break down as part of their new tactical approach, and United will need to remain patient so the additional control and playmaking option could prove useful.

Our Prediction

Though Sevilla’s focus will understandably be on securing La Liga survival, this is perhaps the first big test of the viability of Mendilibar’s approach at the continental level. Given that a club of Sevilla’s stature want to play continental football in the long term, they have to be able to pose a goal threat in these kind of games as well as beating the teams around them in the lower half of La Liga.

We anticipate a keenly contested match in which the home side’s creative quality will eventually tell. Sevilla aren’t expected to show too much ambition here and would probably be happy with a one-goal defeat to take into the second leg. Had Manchester United been deprived of their first-choice midfield, we’d be more tempted to suggest that this match finish 1-0 or perhaps 1-1 if Sevilla played out of their skins. However, we’re more inclined to go with a routine 2-0 victory.

Manchester United 2-0 Sevilla

Man Utd vs Sevilla Betting Tip – Man Utd -1 (win by 2 or more) Odds: