Roma vs Feyenoord – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

As part of our Europa League Predictions, we take a look at the second leg of the quarter final tie between Roma and Feyenoord. Feyenoord hold a 1-0 lead, but Roma were unlucky to lose – can they find a way back into the match? Read on with our Roma vs Feyenoord prediction.

Roma vs Feyenoord Match Preview

Roma come into this second leg in good form in Serie A. Indeed, they have won four of their last six games in the league, including victories over Juventus and a commanding 3-0 victory against Udinese at the weekend. Roma have been strong at home all season – they have won 10 of their 15 games at the Stadio Olimpico in Serie A. In the Europa League, Jose Mourinho’s side have won four of their five home games (losing the other to Real Betis). Their combined score across these gives games is 11-3. In third place in Serie A and still in this competition, they still have two avenues to the Champions League next season.

Arne Slot’s Feyenoord travel to the Italian capital having only been defeated once in the last 26 games (against Ajax in the Dutch Cup). They quickly dispatched Cambuur 3-0 at the weekend. They are eight points clear of Ajax in the Eredivisie with only five games remaining. However, they have yet to win away from home in the Europa League. This run includes defeats to Lazio and Sturm Graz and draws with Midtjylland and Shakhtar. Their home form is their strongest suit.

The first leg was a fascinating affair. Roma played well, having more possession than we anticipated (49 per cent), more shots on goal, and a higher xG (2.04 to 0.59). Roma hit the woodwork with Pellegrini’s penalty and Ibanez’s diverted header, so they were unlucky not to score on the night. However, a Wieffer long strike sealed the victory for Feyenoord, giving them a lead to take to Rome.

Given Roma’s prowess at home and Feyenoord’s problems on their travels in Europe, this second leg is well set up for the neutral. It is a repeat of the inaugural Europa Conference Final last season, which Roma won 1-0. Feyenoord will want their revenge.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions

Roma:

Might Not Play: Abraham, Dybala

Will Not Play: Karsdorp, Darboe, Solbakken

Feyenoord:

Might Not Play: Timber

Will Not Play: Benita, Walemark

Roma vs Feyenoord Lineups (Predicted)

Roma (3-4-2-1): Patricio; Ibanez, Smalling, Mancini; Spinazzola, Matic Cristante, Zalewski; El Shaarawy, Pellegrini; Abraham

Feyenoord (4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1): Bijlow; Hartman, Hancko, Trauner, Geertruida; Wieffer, Kokcu, Szymanski; Idrissi, Gimenez, Jahanbakhsh

Roma vs Feyenoord Analysis

Roma Must Be Expansive At Some Point

Roma tend to be a more counter-attacking team. Indeed, the club from the Italian capital have averaged 49 per cent possession in Serie A this season, and transitional play after sitting deep has become Mourinho’s forte in the last twenty years. However, they are behind in the tie, so they will likely have to be more expansive than usual. They are only a goal down, so they can bide their time to an extent. If the game goes longer and Roma still aren’t in the ascendancy score-wise, though, they will have to take more risks (if they don’t earlier on).

Hence, we see Matic playing and offering more security and insurance defensively. This selection will enable Cristante to be more positive in his movement and passing. However, the two will also act as a double pivot at other times to allow the flying Spinazzola and Zalewski to fly forward from wing-back and supplement the attack. The three centre-backs – Ibanez, Smalling and Mancini – must be wary of counter-attacks if Roma lose the ball in midfield. Roma must build from these defenders and into midfield or through the wide areas when they have possession. This way, they can try to beat the Feyenoord press and find ways into the final third.

When they are in attacking areas, the wing-backs mentioned above must supplement the two attacking midfielders by going outside of them and providing an overlap. This movement will stretch the pitch wide and create space in the middle where El Shaarawy and Pellegrini can work their magic through dribbling, crossing and creative passing (Dybala seems set to miss out). Abraham or Belotti will start up front – whichever plays must make himself available for crosses into the box and through balls down the sides. If either gets a chance in goal in the game, they must take it; unless Roma create an avalanche of opportunities, their strikers must be clinical. Wijnaldum is a possible introduction from the bench. He offers energy and runs into the box to score a goal.

Feyenoord Can Be Patient And Pick Moments To Counter

Feyenoord are a versatile team in that they’re at home both playing a patient, probing possession game or breaking into fast counter-attacks. The Dutch club have the lead in the tie and will be well aware of Roma’s prowess at home, so we don’t see them turning up in Rome and engaging in kamikaze, gung-ho bold actions. We think they’ll be a little more calculated, sit a little deeper, and allow Roma to come onto them – they can then try to nick the ball and trigger transitions. Indeed, Roma were arguably the better team in Rotterdam – hence, Feyenoord know better than to try to play Roma off the park.

The centre-backs, midfielders and full-backs must be compact and not allow any spaces to develop where Roma’s two number 10s can play through. Bijlow must also try to claim the Roma set pieces and crosses and make saves when Roma get chances on goal. Hartman and Geertruida are a threat when they go forward – Matic will be tasked with coming across to cover when Geertruida advances. The three midfielders must be diligent in the centre of the pitch, preventing Roma from making the play and finding dangerous positions. Szymanski and Kokcu especially are weapons when Feyenoord win the ball as they can join the attack.

We expect the same three from last week to start in that attack. Idrissi and Jahanbakhsh are dangerous players with their dribbling and trickery – they must find their way into the box to shoot themselves or supply crosses from outside the box for Gimenez. The Mexican is fast and a good finisher, making good runs that his teammates can pick out. He must try to make these runs down the sides of the centre-backs as he will be outnumbered (indeed, this might allow Mancini or Ibanez to step into midfield for Roma). Gimenez is also good in the air, so the previously mentioned crosses could be crucial. Danilo and the exciting Paixao are potential forward reinforcements.

Our Prediction

This match is so tight to predict, as you’d expect at this stage of a prestigious European competition. On the one hand, Feyenoord hold the lead in the tie, and the tactical setup suits them – Roma are always better when they can sit deeper and counter-attack. On the other hand, the deficit is only one, and there is no need for Roma to panic – they can play a little more cautiously to start with and then be more expansive as the game progresses.

Despite Feyenoord having the advantage, Roma can win in the 90 minutes. We were surprised that Roma dominated much of the game last week, given Feyenoord’s recent great form and goalscoring exploits. However, Roma proved that they’re a quality team. Their home record, allied to Mourinho’s tactical nous, makes us think they will get the better of Slot’s men, though Dybala is a big miss if he doesn’t play.

Therefore, we will predict a slender one-goal victory in 90 minutes. What happens in extra time is the toss of a coin, given that plenty of likely fresh substitutes can attack tired legs. It’s challenging to call and could go all the way to penalties.

Roma 2-1 Feyenoord (90 Minutes)

Penalty Shootout

Roma vs Feyenoord Betting Tip – Roma Odds: