Salzburg vs Roma – Analysis, Prediction, Team News
Thursday 16th February 2023
Red Bull Arena
As part of our Europa League predictions, we take a look at Roma’s visit to the Red Bull Arena. Roma have improved since the World Cup break – can they take a lead back to Rome? Read on with our Salzburg vs Roma prediction.
Salzburg (Champions League)
Salzburg vs Roma Match Preview
Following a promising start to their Champions League campaign which saw Salzburg in contention to qualify for the knockout stage for the second successive season, the Austrians promptly lost their final two Group E matches. Firstly, against Chelsea at home via a 2-1 scoreline, followed by a 4-0 rout at the hands of AC Milan. Up until that juncture, Salzburg had been steady if not impressive, holding both Milan and Chelsea and gaining four points against Dinamo Zagreb – though the 1-1 draw in Zagreb made their task all the more difficult for the remaining fixtures.
Domestically, Salzburg’s 4-0 victory at the weekend over Austria Lustenau was a welcome return to form following their Austrian Cup quarter-final exit to rivals Sturm Graz on penalties. The obvious issue with analysing Salzburg’s domestic form is that they’ve won the Austrian Bundesliga nine times in a row, and are far better resourced than their fellow domestic club sides. Therefore, it’s noteworthy to mention that Sturm Graz have won two of their last three league meetings, all within the last 12 months, and drawn the other. Is this Salzburg side as strong as those that have come before it?
Last season’s inaugural Europa Conference League champions AS Roma find themselves in the position of needing to win this playoff tie after their Europa League campaign got off on entirely the wrong foot in the form of a 2-1 defeat away to Ludogorets. A 2-1 home defeat against eventual Group C winners Real Betis essentially sealed their fate, as although they were able to earn a draw in Seville, a victory in that game would not have changed the overall standings.
Roma’s recent Serie A form has shown something of an improvement lately, with the Giallorossi taking 14 points from their last seven matches. Though Roma did lose 2-1 away to Napoli during this period, Napoli are proving to be a formidable team this season and Mourinho’s men were level in the game at 1-1 up until the 86th minute. They weren’t dominated in such a difficult fixture, and this level of performance has seen them rise above AC Milan on goal difference to establish themselves as strong contenders for a place in next season’s Champions League.
Injuries and Suspensions
Might Not Play: Kameri
Will Not Play: Guindo, Okoh, Omeregie, Tijani
Might Not Play:
Will Not Play: Darboe, Spinazolla
Salzburg vs Roma Lineups (Predicted)
Salzburg (4-3-1-2): Kohn; Bernardo, Solet, Pavlovic, Dedic; Kjaergaard, Gourna-Douath, Seiwald; Sucic; Okafor, Fernando
Roma (3-4-2-1): Patricio; Ibanez, Smalling, Mancini; El-Shaarawy, Matic, Cristante, Zalewski; Pellegrini, Dybala; Abraham
This is a well-balanced tie and a tricky game to formulate a prediction for, though we’re not quite sitting on the fence for this one. For us, we feel that the deciding factors for a narrow Roma victory are Roma’s recent improvement in Serie A, Salzburg’s Champions League group stage collapse and Salzburg’s poor recent record against not only their nearest challengers in the Austrian Bundesliga, Sturm Graz but also their other significant rivals LASK. In the last five matches combined against these two clubs, Salzburg haven’t won a single game.
We can look at Salzburg’s Champions League group performance through a different lens too. They did manage to pick up draws against a horribly out-of-sorts Chelsea team and a Milan side which has struggled for consistency this season. Their only win in the group stage came against Dinamo Zagreb – not to denigrate the Croatian side of course, but the disparity in resources between the two sides is stark.
With Roma in a good spell of form, they can perhaps do what they do best – remain defensively disciplined and compact against a Salzburg side who haven’t looked particularly dangerous against the better sides they’ve faced this season, and attack at pace in transition when the opportunity allows. Dybala and Abraham are combining particularly well at the moment, and we feel that Roma carry enough of a threat on the break to sit in here, do their damage and take a narrow lead back to Rome.
Salzburg 1-2 Roma
Salzburg vs Roma Betting Tip – Roma Odds:
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